SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear
FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL
an interactive assessment
of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,
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Journalists' Essential Field Guide to Afghanistan
by Edward Girardet
by The European
Centre for War,
The News Media
offer to give unrestricted access to U.N. arms inspectors is aimed at
diplomatically defusing Washington's attempts to build a coalition in
the U.N. and it virtually guarantees a Russian veto against war in the
Security Council. Saddam knows that the inspections have no way of controlling
biological weapons since they can be produced in dual-purpose facilities
that normally serve perfectly legitimate functions. If President Bush
does proceed with an attack against Iraq, the U.N. inspectors are likely
to find themselves serving as human shields. Charles Duelfer, who previously
ran the U.N.'s inspections in Iraq as Deputy Executive Director of UNSCOM
describes the dynamics of Iraqi arms inspections and explains why a return
to the old U.N. inspection regime is no protection against Saddam's efforts
to rearm himself.
Duelfer in Arms Control Today
ON REACTIONS TO THE OFFER
AL QAEDA SUSPECTS IN PAKISTAN
in a black sedan, four FBI agents watched intently as a posse of Pakistan
military intelligence and police officials climbed a narrow staircase
...The raiding party had specific information from two Yemenis arrested
in another raid a few hours earlier... As the uniformed and plain clothes
intelligence operatives and policemen barged into the apartment, six Arabic-speaking
men and a woman immediately offered themselves for arrest... The trouble
erupted when a young man holding a grenade in one hand and an automatic
weapon in the other suddenly emerged from the adjacent flat and lobbed
the grenade ...
Pakistan News Service, September 15, 2002
The BBC filmed the firefight. Daniel Boettcher says
that although the action took place on Wednesday, September 11, it was
only over the weekend that the significance of Ramzi bin al-Shaiba's capture
MAN WHO COULD HAVE THE ANSWERS
bin al-Shaiba (also spelled Binalshibh, and alternately known as Ramzi
Omar), now under arrest in Pakistan, allegedly bragged that he had helped
plan the attack on 9/11. Western intelligence agencies think he may be
the one man who is able to put all the pieces together. Bin al Shaiba,
who roomed with Mohammed Atta in Hamburg, Germany, might have been on
one of the planes flying into the World Trade Center, if he hadn't had
his visa applications repeatedly rejected.
Dawn Newspaper & The Washington Post
FIVE TRAINED AT SAME CAMP AS 9/11 TERRORISTS
FBI is convinced that the "Buffalo Cell"--five men who were
arrested Friday-- was a sleeper outfit. All five men were born in the
U.S. but are from familes that trace their origins back to Yemen. neighbors
had described them as perfectly ordinary citizens, yet they had taken
time to go to Afghanistan for training in the same camps frequented by
the 9/11 terrorists. The FBI had been following them for months, but when
ahead with the arrests after the arrests in Pakistan.
The Buffalo News, September 15, 2002
ARAB STREET: A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE WAR ON TERROR
latest poll shows that many Arabs have dramatically different feelings
about 9/11 and the War on Terrorism. 52% of the people surveyed said that
when they saw the World Trade Center collapse, they had the gut feeling
that the U.S. deserved to be attacked, while only 10% blame the terrorists.
39% suspect that the Israeli Mossad was responsible, while only 19% thinkt
it was Al Qaeda. 68% think the "War on Terrorism" is a ploy
by Washington to extend global dominance, and 51% see it as a war against
Muslims, while only 15% think it is a justified response to the attacks.
66% think Arab regimes should oppose the U.S. on the war on terror, while
only 10% think the U.S. should be supported. 93% see the war on terrorism
as a descent into chaos and madness.
By Al-Ahram, September 12-18, 2002
ARABIA OFFERS ITSELF WIGGLE ROOM
Saudi Arabia hinted
over the weekend that it might allow the U.S. to use Saudi bases for an
attack on a non-compliant Iraq. The catch is that the permission is contingent
on a greenlight from the U.N. Security Council to go ahead with a war.
The Saudi maneuver makes any declaration of war on Iraq susceptible to
a veto by Russia, France, China or even Great Britain.
BBC September 16, 2002
DAY "SADDAM" SANK THE U.S. FLEET
plowed $250 million and 13,000 troops into a wargame at the height of
this summer. The planning chiefs' big mistake was to ask a retired U.S.
Marine general to play the role of Saddam. In a strategy reminiscent of
Britain's response to the Spanish Armada, General Paul Van Riper dispatched
dozens of high speed boats and propeller planes laden with heavy explosives,
and managed to sink 16 warships and kill thousands of G.I.s within minutes.
Not pleased with the results, the Pentagon opted to ignore the U.S. defeat
and reset the game. Then they rigged the deck to assure at least a virtual
U.S. victory. Van Riper was told that his radio communications had been
knocked out, even though he tried to explain that he had no intention
of relying on radios. When U.S. troops landed, Van Riper was order to
have his troops ignore the landings until it was too late. Disgusted,
Van Riper walked out. The Pentagon declared victory. Not surprisingly,
the incident has raised serious questions about the Pentagon's war strategy,
and even more about its grasp on reality in a future combat situation.
By Julian Borger, The Guardian, September 6, 2002
WILL IT TAKE?
Rear Admiral Stephen
F. Baker (ret.) adds up a shopping list of factors likely to affect the
outcome if the U.S. does go to war with Iraq.
Stephen F. Baker, Center for Defense Information
SERIOUSLY THINK THE U.N. WANTS TO INVADE IRAQ?
The Nation's Ian Williams takes a sober
look at Bush's U.N. strategy and what lies behind it. An immediate goal
is to head off a Security council war plan veto from Russia, France or
China. To that end, the State Department has given its tacit to Chinese
try to characterize their own Muslim separatists, the Uighers, as terrorists.
QAEDA: ACT TWO
The Rand Corporation's
Brian Jenkins points out that the first stage in President Bush's war
on terror has had some noticeable successes, but the second phase is likely
to be more complex. One problem is that most Americans still see the attack
on the world Trade Center as a signle event, but while the Al Qaeda group
ahs lost its support from Pakistan and has had to deal with a number of
disruptions, it is still alive and kicking. Experience shows that this
kind of group is not likely to quit of its own accord. As a result, the
administration needs to stay focused. This 37-page monograph is available
in pdf format.
By Brian Jenkins, RAND, September 2002
LEGAL ARGUMENT FOR GOING TO WAR
In his speech to the
U.N., President Bush provided a long list of Iraqi violations of U.N.
resolutions. Hardly anyone questions that Saddam has behaved monstrously,
but is thumbing one's nose at the U.N. a legal justification for going
to war? Anthony Dworkin, who tracks the international laws that govern
warfare, provides a point-by-point analysis of how well the administration's
argument stands up to established precedents.
By Anthony Dworkin in Crimesofwar.com
IS AMERICA GOING?
writing in the New York Review of books, points out that George W. Bush
has steered the United States in a direction that is a radical break with
55 years of American internationalist diplomacy. Hopes for peace in the
Middle East have been shelved, hard won treaties have been abandoned,
traditional allies have been snubbed and the U.S. is increasingly isolated
without any apparent vision of where to go in the future.
By Frances Fitzgerald in the New York Review of Books, September 26, 2002
AS THE 51st STATE?
Atlantic Monthly's James Fallows questioned diplomats, spies, Arabists,
oil company executives and other observers about war with Iraq. His conclusion:
victory may be just the beginning of a long adventure. A word to the wise:
small disturbances to complex systems can have unpredictably large effects...
the effects we can't imagine when the fighting begins will prove to be
the ones that matter most.
By James Fallows in the Atlantic Monthly
THIS AN ADVENTURE WE CAN AFFORD?
last Gulf War effectively doubled oil prices and then kept them high for
most of a year. The price tag for the U.S. expeditionary force was $80
billion and 80% was paid for by Arab allies. This time around the total
is likely to be much higher and the U.S. will have to foot the bill alone.
Miriam Pemberton tallies up the bill for Foreign Policy in Focus (FPIF,
September 13, 2002)
Zunes details seven additional reasons why invading Iraq is a bad idea
FOCUS ON ELIMINATING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND WHILE WE'RE AT IT,
TAKE A PASS ON REGIME CHANGE
panel discussion at the Carnegie Endowment for InternatIonal Peace concludes
that the Bush administration needs to be clear about its objectives if
it wants any help from the rest of the world. Presentations by Joseph
Cirincione, Jessica Matthews, Charles Boyd, Patrick Clawson, and former
UNSCOM chief, Rolf Ekeus, are available in streaming video, and in a printed
CONFRONTS WATER WAR
plans to divert water from the Hatzbani River before it reaches Israel.
Sharon says that could be a reason for war. U.S. experts have arrived
to resolve the dispute.
Ha'aretz, September 15, 2002
GAS DEAL EVOLVES
A lot is riding on
Saudi Arabia's $25 billion project to tap into its vast natural gas reserves.
To attract foreign firms--notably Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell and BP,
as well as TotalFina Elf, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum Corp. and
Marathon Oil Corp.-- the Saudis are now offering access to gas fields
that are vast in size but have uncertain reserves. At the same time they
have quietly withdrawn access to the kingdom's richest proven reserves.
The change is due in part to growing domestic opposition to letting foreigners
profit from the kingdom's richest resources.
WHO IS SADDAM? MARK BOWDEN'S PENETRATING PROFILE IN THE ATLANTIC
tyrant must steal sleep. He must vary the locations and times. He never
sleeps in his palaces. He moves from secret bed to secret bed. Sleep and
a fixed routine are among the few luxuries denied him. It is too dangerous
to be predictable, and whenever he shuts his eyes, the nation drifts.
His iron grip slackens. Plots congeal in the shadows. For those hours
he must trust someone, and nothing is more dangerous to the tyrant than
Mark Bowden in the Atlantic, May 2002
WORLD TRADE CENTER THE NEXT TIME
and engineers agree that the speed and completeness of the World Trade
Center's collapse was due as much to structural design as it was to Osama
Bin Laden. Skyscrapers may be the ultimate expression of man's hubris,
yet 9/11 hasn't slowed the construction of tall buildings. Hong Kong's
Union Square and Shanghai's World Financial Center will be nearly as soaring
as the WTC. This time around, though, engineers will add new protective
measures to the building's core.
Stephen Ashley in Scientific American
Not everyone loses in the chaos and destruction
that results from a war . After helping to crush Iraq during the first Gulf
War, two Haliburton subsidiaries won double contracts from Saddam Hussein
in 1998 that were worth $24 million. The object of the contracts: repair
the damage caused by American bombs and get Iraq's oil pipelines flowing
again. The man who headed Haliburton during this phase in its business expansion
was none other than Dick Cheney, who had helped destroy the pipelines when
he was Secretary of Defense. Despite that past history of confrontation,
neither Cheney nor Saddam seemed to have any problems doing business with
each other once the fighting had subsided.
Andrew Gumbel in the Independent.
WHEN RICHARD PERLE WAS ADVISING THE LIKUD
wanted Israel to break with its past, and not only to contain its foes,
but to transcend them. the advice was not unlike the guidance he is now
offering to George Bush
writing in the New Yorker, notes that George Bush had announced early on
that he intended to expand the war beyond Al Qaeda, and that he was not
adverse to striking first. the only thing he neglected to mention is where
it would stop.
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