WASHINGTON HAS ITS PLAN. ALL IT LACKS IS CREDIBILITY
George Bush's father made an embarrassingly unproductive performance at the Earth Summit in Rio a decade ago. The President wants to do better at this week's meeting in Johannesburg. The trouble is that the administration's policies have been so erratic up to now that no one is likely to believe in them. By John Audley, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 23, 2002

With 65,000 delegates from 185 countries and 100 heads of state, attending the Johannesburg Summit. The week long conference may be the largest convention in world history. It may also turn out to be one the most troubled. The Guardian gives
a comprehensive guide to what is involved.

IGNORED PROMISES
According to the UN's Johannesburg Summit fact sheet, the third world's debt has nearly doubled since the Rio summit ten years ago. Industrialized countries had promised to pay 0.7% of their GNP to help the developing world. Instead contributions from the world's richest countries has fallen from 0.33% of GNP to roughly 0.22% of GNP. Although private investment increased dramatically, roughly 80% of it flows to just ten developing countries. The rest attracted a mere 2.5% of private foreign investment. For a selection of fact sheets and the U.N.'s global trends report, go to the Summit website.

THE REAL BATTLE IS FOR THE MIND OF GEORGE BUSH
Proponents of starting a war with Iraq know that their first conquest has to be the mind of the President. So it is not surprising that they are attacking old-line Republican stalwarts who once defended Bush's father but who are cautious about launching the United States into a venture with no clear exit plan. High on the hawks' hit list are Brent Scowcroft and Lawrence Eagleburger. By Jim Lobe in Foreign policy in Focus, August 20, 2002

WHY STOP AT IRAQ?
Some Washington hawks want more than a simple regime change in Baghdad. These Shirley Highway warriors hope to take on the rest of the Middle East as well. Sound crazy? Not to the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) and the Center for Security Policy (CSP). The Pentagon's Defense Policy Review Board, headed by Richard Perle, is stacked with members of both groups. Jason Vest profiles the players in this week's Nation. September 2, 2002

BACK TO THE OTTOMANS?
Only six years ago Richard Perle was advising Benjamin Netanyahu on how to handle the Middle East. One of Perle's pet themes was that Israel should make a deal with Turks, the modern day descendents of the empire that once ruled the Arab nation. Perle has since flogged the idea tirelessly in Washington. --Jason Vest explores the Turkish connection in the Nation.

The Chicago Tribune takes a look at Perle's Defense Policy Review Board, which seeks to influence Pentagon strategy.

A FOG OF LEAKED BATTLE PLANS
So much conflicting information is coming out of Washington these days that a recent meeting of Arab diplomats was evenly split over whether the U.S. really plans to invade Iraq or not. What is clear is that the Bush administration has managed to get just about everyone in the Middle East confused, and that it is getting harder even for Arabs to trust what they read in the newspapers. Mohamed El-Sayed Said describes the Arab view of Washington shenanigans in Al Ahram. August 22-28, 2002
Also, read Ehsan Ahrari on the Information War between Baghdad and Washington in the Asia times (August 22, 2002)

MORE THAN JUST TALK
Anyone who doubts that Washington is committed to attacking Iraq might want to take a look at recent satellite photographs of the U.S. military buildup in Qatar. Of particular interest are the new "stealth" shelters at Qatar's Al Ubeid airbase. These hardened concrete buildings are shaped to look like a stealth fighter and designed to appear virtually invisible to radar. And they are only part of a massive new U.S. construction campaign in the Gulf. (To link to the images, click on the satellite photos below). By Global Security.com August 2002.

FAMILY FEUD
India's former ambassador to Jordan, K Gajendra Singh, warns that Bush's family vendetta against Saddam is dragging the U.S. into a war that the American General Anthony Zinni once dismissed as a "Bay of Goats." The idea of triggering a quick collapse like the Gulf War is just not in the cards. "There are no clearly defined strategic objectives for an attack on Iraq," notes Singh. "Instead, Bush has his hands on a Pandora's Box that would release incalculable forces and consequences if he were to open it. " By K Gajendra Singh in Asia Times, August 26, 2002

HOW MUCH DAMAGE TO OIL FROM A WAR IN IRAQ?
Daniel Yergin, writing in the New York Times, runs through the numbers and concludes that even though Iraq was a large oil supplier to the U.S. up until two months ago (through indirect sales via third parties), the Iraqis have been so unreliable that the world will probably be able to get by without Iraqi oil. If the war spreads to other Gulf states though, it could be a different story. About 10% of the world's oil passes through Saudi Arabia, which produces up to 8 million barrels a day. If the Saudi's and other gulf producers shut down, we could see a brief price spike to $50 to $60 a barrel. For that matter the price spike of $30 a barrel last week represented a $5 "fear" premium triggered by uneasiness over Washington's saber rattling. Daniel Yergin, New York Times, August 25, 2002

A VERY DIFFERENT WAR AT A VERY DIFFERENT TIME
The Six Day War helped define Israel's military status in the Middle East, but it was fought in a completely different context by a very different kind of Israeli. Not only are comparisons today likely to be misleading, but it can be argued that the sudden victory laid the seeds for many of the problems the Middle East confronts today. By Tony Judt in the New Republic, August 2002

AN EYE ON GEORGIA
Russian Premier, Vladimir Putin, won his last election partly on a promise to mop up the last resistance in Chechnya, the breakaway republic in the Caucasus which has sought independence since 1993. So far, Putin has been unable to deliver on his promise despite unleashing a wave of random terror on Chechen civilians. In the last few weeks, Russia has lobbied intensively to get a green light to chase Chechen rebels into Georgia, which also opted for independence in the early 1990s. The U.S. has promised to train 2,000 Georgian commandos to clean up the Gorge, but has had serious difficulties finding volunteers (see the IWPR report quoted in the Global Beat, August 12, 2002). On Friday, the Georgians claimed that Russia had sent four bombers to carry out airstrikes against Georgian villages, killing a woman and her child. The U.S. protested the airstrikes. The Russians have denied making them.

EurasiaNet reports on Russia's attempts to get a green light to go into Georgia...

The Center for International and Strategic Studies updates the growing tensions between Russia and Georgia

The BBC Reports on the U.S. protest against the alleged Russian airstrike

Radio Free Europe reports on the Georgian charges(6th item in report)

 

KYRGYZSTAN'S WOES
Kyrgyzstan's authoritarian regime is using increasingly violent tactics to control its political opposition, which is complicated by the fact that the U.S. has 2,000 troops in this Central Asian republic mostly to back up U.S. forces in Afghanistan. A major concern is that the U.S. presence may encourage other players especially Russia and China to increase their influence by further destabilizing an already shaky regime. the International Crisis Group provides a detailed update. (ICG, August 20, 2002)

INDIA PLANS TO TEST A MEDIUM RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE
Actual testing on the Agni III missile probably won't start until the end of next year or early 2004, and the 16-ton $6.2 million missile will most likely only be able to carry a 45-kiloton nuclear device, but that may be enough to ratchet up the arms race in Asia. The Agni III will have a 3,000-km range, enough to reach deep into China or Pakistan, and it will be ready to fire on 15 minutes notice. Until it's ready, the India will have to rely on jet bombers if it wants to deliver a nuclear device. Work on the Agni III's predecessor, the Agni II, was halted in 1994, largely due to technical problems and non-proliferation pressure from the U.S. By David Isenberg, Asia Times, August 24, 2002