THE CENTER FOR WAR, PEACE AND THE NEWS MEDIA AT NEW YORK UNIVERSITY AUG 20 - 27, 2003

Ralph A. Cossa: Building a new generation of nukes won't help the U.S. stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Svetlana Peshkova and Robert A. Rubinstein: Failure to understand Iraqi culture has cost the U.S. lives and treasure

Malcolm K. Savidge, MP: A thorough transatlantic investigation is needed into how the case for war was made.

 

New York University

 

 

Want to subscribe
to the Global Beat?
Send an e-mail to:wtd2@nyu.edu
with the word "subscribe" in the subject line.

To unsubscribe, send an e-mail with "unsubscribe" in the subject line.

Any problems, comments or mail, click here:
CONTACT:
GLOBALBEAT

 

U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

 

 

 


Baghdad in flames

IRAQ: RECONSTRUCTION SABOTAGED
The truck bomb strike at UN headquarters in Baghdad not only killed the UN's highly respected and talented envoy Sergio Vieira De Mello and fourteen others; it also signaled the growing confidence of an insurgency dedicated to disrupting the U.S.-led transition effort. De Mello had, for example, played a major role in helping U.S. viceroy Paul Bremer draw credible Shiite religious leaders into his Iraqi Governing Council. The attack on the UN building follows last weekend's sabotage attacks on the the recently restored pipeline pumping Iraqi oil to Turkey, an attack that demonstrated a keen sense of the Americans' Achilles heel -- the cost of the occupation. Militarily that has meant an average of one soldier killed every second day and about four wounded every day, and their deployment is costing the U.S. taxpayer almost $1 billion a week. Reconstruction costs, however, will be a lot higher, and the U.S. is currently shouldering most of the budgetary load. Washington had hoped Iraqi oil would play a major role in financing reconstruction, but so far it has generated very little revenue, and that looks likely to produce a substantial deficit in the Coalition Provisional Authority's budget. By blowing up oil pipelines, the insurgents are trying to ensure that the cost of the Iraq occupation to the U.S. taxpayer continues to rise; by blowing up the UN building they're trying to signal that they'll consider anyone working with the Americans as fair game.
(The Economist, August 18, 2003)

  • The BBC reports that the U.S. plans to double the guard on the pipeline by contracting an international security company to deploy 1,000 guards -- mostly Iraqi -- along the 600 mile route. But long oil pipelines are notoriously difficult to protect from sabotage.
  • Iraqi sociologist Faleh A Jabar explores the patterns in the resistance, and finds that it involves at least four separate categories of insurgent, each with their own agenda which overlaps with the others.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald's Paul McGeogh meets with members of an insurgent unit and finds that they're not Baathists at all, but a new breed of Iraqi nationalist with little fondness for Saddam. Instead of the security operatives of the old regime, they claim to be taking guidance from the mosques.
  • The bad news in the mosques for the U.S. forces is the emergence of an alliance between anti-occupation clerics from the Shiite community and fundamentalist imams among the Sunni, reports the Washington Post. Mounting tension between U.S. forces and the most radical element of the Shiite clergy threaten to widen the base of the insurgency.
  • Amid the chaos of postwar Baghdad, however, some Baghdadis still find time to play the ponies . But the Baghdad Bulletin reports that punters placing bets at the Baghdad Equestrian Club have to navigate through a treacherous sea of swindlers and fundamentalists.

    ASIA'S BIN LADEN GOES DOWN
    Last week's arrest of Riduan Isamuddin, better known by his nom de guerre, Hambali, was a major victory for the U.S. war on al-Qaeda. Southeast Asia has been one of the most dangerous growth areas of the terror network since the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the charismatic Hambali -- sometimes known as "the Bin Laden of the East" -- has been at the center of recruiting, training, organizing and funding operatives who have carried out deadly attacks in Indonesia and elsewhere. His capture by U.S. forces deals a body blow to Jemaah Islamiya, the southeast Asian franchise of the Qaeda movement (with whom Hambali was its key liaison). But the Asian movement has other leaders ready to take his place.
    (Christian Science Monitor, August 18, 2003)

  • The Asia Times warns that it would be misleading to reduce Jemaah Islamiya to simply an outgrowth of al-Qaeda, warning that the Islamist movement in Asia emerged in response to local political and social conditions, which continue to fuel its growth.

  • The New Straits Times speculates that a quarrel over money among Jemaah activists may have led to the tip off that snared Hambali.

    TENSIONS RISE AS KOREA TALKS LOOM
    North Korea is demanding a non-aggression pact with the U.S. as the price for stopping its nuclear weapons program, but that's a price Washington can't meet. Even the more palatable (to Washington) option of offering written security guarantees is under fire from administration hawks. But, at the same time, the U.S. can't convince any of North Korea's neighbors to support a tougher line and help implement new forms of pressure such as sanctions. And the U.S. military sees few good tactical options if the administration opted to confront North Korea. Despite the success of bringing North Korea into six-way talks, the proposals on offer may not break the stalemate.
    (BBC, August 18, 2003)

  • CBS reports that Secretary of State Colin Powell wants to offer Pyongyang a new relationship with the U.S. and is seeking a creative answer to North Korea's demand for security guarantees. But that might be too much for some in Washington, and not enough for Pyongyang.
  • Brookings Institution scholar Richard C. Bush III warns that North Korea may use the talks to sharpen divisions between the U.S. and its allies by pressing for cuts in U.S. conventional forces in South Korea, hoping to turn anti-American public sentiment in South Korea to his advantage. Bush warns that the U.S. must go into the talks having established a consensus with Seoul.
  • Meanwhile, the International Herald Tribune reports that the U.S. plans to turn up the heat on North Korea ahead of the talks by holding naval exercises off Australia, during which U.S. and allied forces would practice interdicting shipping from an unnamed country suspected of exporting missiles and other contraband. The North Koreans, no doubt, will produce a few menacing gestures of their own before the talks.

    MISSILE STING TRIGGERS ALARMS
    It may have been falsely reported as a "terror plot" initially, but last week's arrest of an Anglo-Indian arms dealer who believed he was shipping a surface-to-air missile to terrorists in the U.S. certainly gave Western government cause for concern over the vulnerability of commercial airliners to ground fire.
    (BBC, August 18, 2003)

  • The reason for the flurry of panic following revelations of the sting was that it underscored the relative ease with which terrorists could acquire the means to bring down commercial airliners.
  • That's partly because as many as 700,000 shoulder fired missiles were manufactured over the past three decades, says the Center for Defense Information.
  • And as the New York Times profile of one of the world's busiest arms dealers shows, there's good money to be made trafficking in weapons.

    REHABILITATING GHADAFI
    On President Reagan's watch, Libyan leader Muammar Ghadafi represented a similar personification of terrorism that Osama bin Laden does in today's Washington. But Ghadafi has long-since ceased waging terror war by proxy, and worked instead on buying his way back to international respectability. He appears to have succeeded with a $2.7 billion compensation deal for the families of the victims of the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie. Britain has moved to end UN sanctions imposed on Libya as a result of the incident, although the U.S. insists that it will maintain its own sanctions. But the deal allows Ghadafi back onto the international stage while evading any personal responsibility for Lockerbie, writes the Economist.
    (The Economist, August 14, 2003)

  • Reuters notes that the U.S. decision to maintain its own sanctions against Libya leaves U.S. oil companies out in the cold. And a number of those oil companies have been pushing hard for an end to sanctions in order to regain access to Libya's oilfields. Expect further lobbying.
  • France, meanwhile, threatens to sink the whole deal at the UN, not over some difference in principle over rehabilitating Libya, but because the compensation figure attained by the U.S. dwarfs that achieved by France for an earlier Libyan terror strike that killed a number of French airline passengers, and Paris wants to reopen negotiations on its own agreement with Tripoli.

    KARZAI'S AFGHANISTAN TEETERS
    On a single day last week, 65 Afghans were killed in violence pitting Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters against U.S.-backed government troops and police. And this week opened with a firefight at a rural police station in which 22 died. Undeterred by NATO's takeover of the command of the relatively small international peacekeeping operation in the capital, the Taliban are mounting a fierce comeback offensive, relying on Pashtun alienation, weaknesses of the Karzai government and -- diplomats and Afghan authorities suggest -- sanctuaries in Pakistan to sustain them. Diplomats warn that without a substantial expansion of the international security mission, and cooperation from Pakistan, the government that Washington built in Afghanistan may collapse.
    (Financial Times, August 18, 2003)

  • Asia Times points out that the new Afghan resistance is following the pattern set during the anti-Soviet jihad -- encircle the towns and make the countryside increasingly ungovernable from Kabul. In order to do that, it has combined the forces of the Taliban, al-Qaeda and fighters loyal to the notorious Pashtun warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
  • The fragility of Karzai's government is underlined in his response to last week's violence -- a massive purge of local and regional government structures in the areas at the center of the fighting, suggesting a recognition that some of Kabul's regional appointees are unlikely to win it any friends in the countryside.

    WHAT THE BRITS ARE LEARNING ABOUT BLAIR
    An official inquiry into the suicide of a British weapons scientist has turned an uncomfortable spotlight on the inner workings of Tony Blair's government as it sought to make its case for war against Iraq. The picture that emerges from evidence before the Hutton inquiry is of Blair's inner circle worrying that the findings of British intelligence didn't make a strong enough case for going to war, and therefore systematically exaggerating those findings to a point that left intelligence chiefs unhappy. The question is fast becoming how many of Blair's circle will have to fall on their proverbial swords.
    (The Scotsman, August 18, 2003)

  • The Hutton inquiry has shed some light on the British government's efforts to sell the war despite the slim evidentiary pickings for making the case, argues the Guardian's Brian Whitaker, but it won't examine the question of why Blair was so determined to go to war in the first place.
  • The case of Dr. David Kelly brought tensions between the British government and its state broadcasting corporation, the BBC, to an all-time high. Canadian journalist Mark Starowicz asks why there has been no equivalent showdown in the U.S. over the case made for war. One answer, he suggests, is that may indeed be coming this Fall.

    BUSH SAYS MARINES WILL LEAVE LIBERIA WITHIN WEEKS
    Most U.S. peacekeeping deployments are open-ended by nature, renewed as necessary from year to year. Not Liberia. President Bush has made clear that he wants U.S. Marines to leave Liberian soil by October 1, and hand over to UN peacekeepers. And the White House will be hoping that the country's rival armies, and the West African and other foreign peacekeepers will oblige.
    (Reuters, August 18, 2003)

  • A power-sharing peace agreement between the rival militia and the remnants of the government certainly looks good on paper, the BBC reports. As long as it's implemented on the ground.
  • The news from beyond the capital is not yet encouraging, reports the LA Times. Beyond Monrovia, fighting continues and humanitarian disaster threatens, and the number of U.S. and West African troops deployed in the capital is too small to have any impact on that situation.

    WHY THE U.S. NEEDS A BIGGER ARMY
    The scale of America's international commitments is growing, placing new strains on an already stretched military. To maintain morale and efficiency, the U.S. military will have to grow, argues Brookings scholar Michael O'Hanlon. The principles of "small government" don't sit well with the demands of maintaining order in America's expanding empire.
    (The Brookings Institution, August 14, 2003)

  • The White House last week backed away from a Pentagon proposal to trim the pay raises of soldiers in war zones. The Defense Department is concerned to rein in a ballooning defense budget as a result of expanding U.S. commitments, but with the dampening of morale among military families with loved ones in Iraq, it may be politically unwise to push fiscal discipline too far.
  • The news from beyond the capital is not yet encouraging, reports the LA Times. Beyond Monrovia, fighting continues and humanitarian disaster threatens, and the number of U.S. and West African troops deployed in the capital is too small to have any impact on that situation.

    A BUTCHER PASSES UNMOURNED
    Idi Amin combined brutality and buffoonery in a mix that created the ultimate caricature of the post-colonial African dictator. He saw out his days in exiled disgrace in Saudi Arabia, lucky to have settled there in the days before international courts of justice. The Observer's Peter Beaumont examines his legacy.
    (The Observer, August 14, 2003)

    THE SECRET OF MURDOCH'S SUCCESS
    His liberal detractors may see News Corporation CEO Rupert Murdoch as the personification of the right-wing media baron they love to hate, but Murdoch didn't get where he is today by being an ideologue. He may, indeed, be a conservative true believer, but business is business, and he built his global empire with his eye firmly focused not on the Holy Grails of the right, but on the bottom line, writes James Fallows.
    (The Atlantic, September, 2003)


  • Hamas strikes again
    A MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR THE MIDEAST ROADMAP
    The massive Hamas suicide bombing that killed 18 Israelis aboard a Jerusalem bus on Tuesday has accelerated progress towards the inevitable crisis on the Bush administration's "roadmap" to Middle East peace. The attack, which Hamas claimed as an act of vengeance for two of its own leaders killed recently in an Israeli raid, highlighted the limits of the process underway -- Palestinian prime minister Mahmoud Abbas and his security chief Mohammed Dahlan promise to restrain the militants in areas under their control, but they refuse the Israeli demand that they dismantle those organizations. They fear a civil war, in which the only winners would be the Israelis. The Israelis, for their part, look upon the Palestinian cease-fire as little more than an opportunity for terror cells to regroup and reorganize, and the Israeli focus remains its own security efforts such as the wall that will eventually encircle Palestinian population centers on the West Bank. Neither side is operating on the unspoken assumption that the other side's mala fides make failure inevitable. And that simply raises the inevitability of a resumption of violence, and renewed Mideast headaches for the Bush administration.
    (Haaretz, August 20 2003)

    SUICIDE TERROR CAN BE STOPPED
    Suicide bombing is not simply the product of brainwashing, argues Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria. And it can't be stopped simply by tougher policing. The examples of Turkey and Chechnya show, he says, that the emergence, or decline, of the suicide terror phenomenon is dictated by the wider social and political circumstances of the populations involved. It has risen dramatically in Chechnya over the past two years, under the weight of a brutal Russian crackdown that has left young Chechens with little hope of a political solution, and even of a future. And it has ebbed among the Kurds of Turkey, as the government in Ankara has moved to accommodate more of the cultural aspirations of their Kurdish population.
    (Newsweek, August 25, 2003)





    Need information, but having trouble with a broken link? Send an e-mail to wtd2@nyu.edu
    or click here
    We may be able to help


    For quick access to the Global Beat, set your bookmark to:
    http://globalbeat.org



    TO SIGN UP FOR GLOBALBEAT'S WEEKLY E-MAIL ADVISORY, SEND AN E-MAIL TO wtd2@nyu.edu with "SUBSCRIBE" IN THE SUBJECT HEADING
    (or click here to subscribe)