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Will Iran suspend uranium enrichment in order to get the U.S. to
negotiating table? |
Iran and the
U.S. Talk About Talks
And so the diplomatic dance begins:
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice this week issued a U.S. response to
the various negotiating initiatives from Tehran, in the form of an offer to
join the EU3 at the negotiating table with Iran on condition that
Tehran suspends its uranium enrichment activities. At face value,
that precondition could cast the move simply as a step to
turn the diplomatic tables on Tehran by responding to its calls for
talks with a counter-offer framed in such a way that the Iranians can't
accept it. Indeed, the initial response from Iran's foreign minister
was to welcome the call for talks, but reject any
preconditions. Still, the offer from the U.S. breaks a
long-standing taboo against talking to Tehran on the grounds that this
would legitimize its clerical regime, and although Washington
conservatives are are
spinning the offer as an opportunity to reveal Iran's true intentions
and thereby build support for punitive action, it may just easily
result in a diplomatic process that eventually sees Iran's regime
rehabilitated in exchange for giving up the means to pursue nuclear
weapons. And that may be precisely the outcome that Washington hawks
who favor a policy of "regime-change" had hoped to avoid.
An editorial
in the Wall Street Journal makes clear the conservative fear that
the U.S. offer moves it onto a diplomatic track that leads to far more
concessions to Iran than Washington should be willing to make: "Given
the concessions he has already won by refusing to cooperate, Mr.
Ahmadinejad won't be in any hurry to oblige now," the Journal writes.
"Already yesterday, Iran was pocketing the direct talks and demanding
that any negotiation be 'without preconditions.' This was entirely
predictable, and you can bet this new Iranian demand will soon be
echoed in Paris, Moscow and all too many precincts in Washington."
Secretary Rice's initiative came amid growing
pressure on the Bush Administration in Washington, and among its
key allies, to negotiate directly with Tehran, although that call had
been previously
resisted by hawkish elements in the Administration. It appears to
have had the effect of
forging a consensus between the U.S. and the EU3 over the next steps in
dealing with Iran's nuclear program, although it remains to be seen
whether it contains enough to persuade China and Russia will back the
threat of a Chapter VII Security Council resolution at this stage.
Rice sought to make clear that the U.S. was not offering a
comprehensive "grand bargain" to rehabilitate Iran, because of concerns
over Iranian support for terror attacks and radical groups in Lebanon
and the Palestinian territories. But Iran has
previously offered comprehensive talks on all matters of concern to
Washington including the nuclear issue, Iraq, the fate of al Qaeda
prisoners in Iran, and the Islamic Republic's stance on Israel and the
Palestinians. That was in an April 2003 offer, rebuffed by the Bush
Administration. And Iran sees its strategic position as vastly improved
since that time, now that the U.S. has become bogged down in Iraq and
sees its Afghanistan project in mounting danger of unraveling.
Believing the U.S. now needs its help more than ever, Tehran will drive
a harder bargain.
On the nuclear issue, Iran's reluctance to accept unilateral
suspension of uranium enrichment as a precondition for talks is based
on the idea that this surrenders too much leverage -- Iran's view of
the three-year negotiation process with the EU was that it got nothing
in exchange for its suspension during that period, and that by stalling
the Europeans actually weakened Tehran's position. This time, Tehran
will expect something in return for a suspension: A finite period of
negotiation, and perhaps some form of political recognition from the
West (which moves in the direction of security guarantees) at the
outset of the process. It may also seek to fudge the issue of
suspension by verifiably halting its enrichment activities for
"technical" reasons in order to allow a negotiation process to begin.
Iran may be moved to find a compromise formula because the
offer of direct talks moves substantially towards a key Iranian
diplomatic goal. The debate
in Tehran is certainly likely to intensify, and the regime may be
forced as the diplomatic process gains momentum, to act to ensure that
it speaks with a single, clear voice to avoid the danger that the
divisions between its power centers results in the sending of mixed
signals that could sabotage diplomacy. The deep mistrust of each side
for the other is unlikely to abate any time soon, but the latest
diplomatic gambits from both sides suggest the opening of an
opportunity that will be seized by the diplomatically inclined elements
on both sides, and those caught in between. (Inter Press Service, May
31, 2006)
Trita Parsi suggests Iran will
respond to Rice with a counter offer, probably accepting a
suspension of uranium enrichment but only if it gets something in
return. "The ultimate Iranian goal would be if the United States agrees
to talk and the United States agrees to resolve some of these issues
diplomatically with Iran in a way that reduces the Iranian threat
perception from United States," says Parsi. "I think if that happens
there are strong reasons to believe that Iran will agree to suspend
enrichment. But they would offer to do so within a specific time frame.
I do not think they would do it the same way they did it with the
Europeans back in 2003, when they said, 'we'll suspend enrichment as
long as negotiations take place.' From the Iranian perspective, that
was a mistake because then the Europeans could drag on the negotiations
without reaching any solution and Iran would not be able to enrich.
What they suggested to the Europeans on January 30th of this year was
to suspend enrichment for two years and within those two years find a
solution, a solution that both sides can accept. So, I would say that
if the United States agrees to talk and there is less of a threat
perception on the Iranian side—threatening language on both sides
obviously has to be reduced—then I think it is definitely doable to get
a time-specific period in which the Iranians will agree to suspend
nuclear enrichment." (Council on Foreign Relations, May 31, 2006)
In a forum on Iran policy, Council on Foreign Relations
president Richard Haass offers of a
some thoughtful guidelines for U.S. diplomacy in the nuclear standoff.
may signal an Iranian willingness to find a formula for accommodating
Western preconditions for talks. "The United States must ask itself
what it is prepared to live with," says Haass. "The uranium enrichment
program is not a black or white affair; there are many shades of gray,
in terms of size and transparency. The Iranians talk about their
rights. If that is going to be an essential element of any diplomatic
package, then an interesting question is how to define that right in a
way that is enough for the Iranians and not too much for the West.
"It is very important to make the distinction between giving a
conditional security guarantee and giving a regime guarantee. It is not
up to the United States to guarantee the Iranian regime, or any other
regime; history will take care of that. Instead, the United States
should be talking about the evolution of Iranian society. What the
United States can offer is a conditional security guarantee of the
form, 'f Iran does not attack the United States, the United States will
not attack Iran.' Just because Iran receives such a security assurance,
that will not make it exempt from this administration's general call
for movement in the direction of markets and more democratic societies,
respect for the rule of law, human rights, and the like.
"Calling explicitly for regime change is not smart. It actually
strengthens the hand of the regime in Iran because it seems like
outside interference. It also makes it more difficult for the United
States to garner international support, because this will be used as an
argument against American foreign policy. One of the many ironies of
U.S. policy toward Iran is that after five years of often explicitly
calling for regime change and clearly having a foreign policy toward
Iran in which desire for regime change enjoyed priority, the only
change in the Iranian regime is that hardliners have increased their
power." (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, May, 2006)
The New York Times reports of a
possible slowdown in Iranian enrichment experiments may signal an
Iranian willingness to find a formula for accommodating Western
preconditions for talks. (New York Times, May 30, 2006)
Gareth Porter reports that Iran's 2003
offer to Washington included an offer to accept peace with Israel
and "cut off material assistance to Palestinian armed groups and to
pressure them to halt terrorist attacks within Israel's 1967 borders.
Iranian academic Trita Parsi tells him that the negotiating document
carried the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei, and sought to address all of
Washington's grievances over Iranian behavior. But it was rebuffed by
the Bush Administration. (Asia Times, May 26, 2006)
The Washington Post reports on the
upsurge in negotiating initiatives from Tehran, noting that they
have broken a taboo in Iran on contacts with the erstwhile "Great
Satan" and provoking a debate over Washington's own taboos over
contacts with the regime that held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.
(Washington Post, May 24, 2006)
Kaveh L. Afrasiabi explains why Germany
now holds the pivotal role in shaping a diplomatic outcome, but
that it can only achieve that goal if it acts independently of the U.S.
That poses a major challenge to a Chancellor elected in part on a
promise to repair relations with Washington.
(Asia Times, May 26, 2006)
Former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer makes the
case for bargaining with Iran, and offers an explanation of why
European negotiating initiatives have failed until now: "First, the
European offer to open up technology and trade, including the peaceful
use of nuclear technology, was disproportionate to Iran's fundamental
fear of regime change on the one hand and its regional hegemonic
aspirations and quest for global prestige on the other," he writes.
"Second, the disastrous U.S.-led war in Iraq has caused Iran's leaders
to conclude that the leading Western power has been weakened to the
point that it is dependent on Iran's goodwill and that high oil prices
have made the West all the more wary of a serious confrontation. The
Iranian regime's analysis may prove to be a dangerous miscalculation,
because it is likely to lead sooner rather than later to a 'hot'
confrontation that Iran simply cannot win. After all, the issue at the
heart of this conflict is this: Who dominates the Middle East -- Iran
or the United States? Iran's leaders underestimate the explosive nature
of this issue for the United States as a global power and thus for its
own future." The answer, he says, is to offer Tehran a "grand bargain"
around which an international consensus could be built that would
withstand the pressure of oil prices. And that would require the U.S.
abandoning its hostility to direct talks, and also its desire to effect
regime-change in Iran. (Washington Post, May 29, 2006)
Alexey Arbatov explains how Russia's
middle ground position on the Iran standoff reflects Moscow's own
interests, which are not the same as those of Washington. "By
demanding the immediate cessation of Iranian enrichment activities,
Russia is following its own economic and security interests and is
demonstrating cooperation with the United States (and the West in
general) on nonproliferation," he writes. "By opposing UN sanctions and
US military force, Moscow is accommodating its interests in cooperation
with Iran and in avoidance of the inevitable economic, political and
security damage of war. In this way Russia is also indirectly forging a
united front with China, India and many other countries in opposing US
unilateralism and arbitrary policy of force, permeated with double
standards and a disregard for other nations' differing interests and
views.
"By treating the cessation of Iranian enrichment activities as a
temporary measure to be enforced only as long as it takes the IAEA to
sort out its questions with Iran's past compliance, Russians may be
privately telling Iran that it can pursue a full-scale fuel cycle after
the IAEA is satisfied. At the same time, Moscow could tacitly argue to
Washington (and actually believe it) that such a freeze may last
indefinitely depending on IAEA investigative zeal, and anyway would
gain time to find other ways of putting the brakes on Iranian nuclear
cycle programs." (Carnegie Endowment, May 30, 2006)
Paul Kerr explains why the goal of
regime-change is incompatible with the non-proliferation objective of
the diplomatic process. If the U.S. is unwilling to take
"regime-change" off the table, the Iranians are unlikely to abandon the
option of pursuing a nuclear deterrent. (Council on Foreign Relations,
May 25, 2006)
The policy dispute in Washington is reflected in an
online debate between Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute and
Karim Sadjadpour of the International Crisis Group over the issue
of talking to Iran. (Council on Foreign Relations, May 19, 2006)
In a rare interview with a Western news outlet, President
Mahmoud Ahmedinajad is taken to task over his views on the Holocaust.
He remains combative throughout, on this question as well as over the
nuclear issue. (Der Spiegel, May 30, 2006)
Background Material on Iran
Full
text of Secretary of State Rice's offer to Iran. (U.S. Department
of State, May 31, 2006)
Full text
of President Ahmedinajad's letter to President Bush. (Council on
Foreign Relations, May 9, 2006)
Hassan
Rohani's proposals for resolving the crisis. (TIME.com, May 9, 2006)
Gareth Porter explores the April
2003 offer by Iran for talks to settle all differences with the U.S.
and accept peace with Israel. (Asia Times, May 27, 2006)
The International Institute for Strategic Studies offers a detailed
assessment of the challenges involved in using military strikes to
prevent Iran having the means to acquire nuclear weapons.
(Strategic Comments, Spring, 2006)
Zbigniew Brezinski offers
a cogent summary of the reasons why attacking Iran would be a
monumental act of strategic folly for the U.S. -- its consequences
would be so calamitous, he argues, that they may even prematurely end
the era of American dominance on the global stage. He also warns that
such an act would be illegal both under U.S. and international law.
Brezinski argues that negotiations with Iran remains the best way to
achieve U.S. Goals, including liberalization of Iran's domestic
politics. (LA Times, April 23, 2006)
Seymour Hersh reports on U.S.
military planning for an attack on Iran and explains the reasons
that advocates of such a course of action are winning teh debate inside
the Bush administration. (The New
Yorker, April 10, 2006)
Martin Jacques notes that Washington
appears to have missed the fact that China is not simply being a
reluctant partner in pressuring Iran, it is actively resisting the U.S.
agenda. That, says Jacques, is because China's booming economy has
allowed it greater freedom of expression on the world stage, compared
with its habit, even in the recent path, to studiously avoid upsetting
Washington.
(Guardian, May 10, 2006)
The Center for Strategic and International Studies offers a
detailed technical
assessment of Iran's nuclear program, and also parses
the strategic options available to the U.S. if diplomacy fails.
(Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 7, 2006)
The Center for Defense Information has posted
extracts from the IAEA report on Iran which is to be discussed by the
Security Council. (CDI, March 6,
2006)
Iran's UN ambassador Javad Sarif, in a New York Times op ed,
sets out sets
out Tehran's negotiating position on the nuclear issue. Iran has no
intention of building nuclear weapons, he insists, and is willing to
negotiate on the basis providing new guarantees to win Western
confidence in this assertion, including expanded inspections and the
creation of an international consortium to supply Iran's reactor fuel.
(New York Times, April 7,
2006)
Christopher de Bellaigue offers a comprehensive
analysis of the Iranian regime's nuclear intentions and its strategy
for handling the standoff with the U.S.
(New York Review of Books, April 27,
2006)
The Oxford Research Group assesses the
effectiveness of military options against Iran, and concludes they
are unlikely to restrain Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but will
promote chaos and instability.
(Oxford Research Group, February, 2006)
Ray Tayekh explains the factional disputes at the
heart of the Tehran regime, suggesting that the path of
confrontation is preferred by a new generation of conservatives
hardened during the Iran-Iraq war, and that the current atmosphere of
crisis strengthens their hand domestically.
(The National Interest, Spring, 2006)
Henry Sokolski suggests that the current debate over how to
stop Iran going nuclear is fruitless. Instead, he offers a
long-term strategy for managing Western rivalry with a nuclear-armed
Iran. (Transatlantic Institute, March 16, 2006)
Previously on Iran:
--
05.10.06: U.S. Thwarted in Iran Diplomacy
--
04.26.06: Awaiting the Real Diplomacy
--
04.19.06: U.S. Fails to Prevail in Iran Diplomacy
--
04.12.06: March to War or Smoke and Mirrors?
--
04.05.06: Military Action Against Iran?
--
03.29.06: Bush Iran Strategy Hits a Wall
--
03.22.06: Has Britain Put U.S. on the Spot?
--
03.15.06: Regime Change or Normalization?
Stuck
in Iraq
President Bush and Tony Blair are due
to meet later this week to discuss Iraq and prospects for drawing down
significant numbers of Coalition troops, with the
swearing in of an incomplete Iraqi government -- its
three most contentious positions remain unfilled -- their best
hope for reversing the negative tide. But there is little reason to
expect a new government
formed out of the same political deadlock that hamstrung the previous
one to produce a substantially different result. The new government
has
entrenched the sectarian principle in Iraqi politics, making
government another theater of the same conflict that is played out with
weapons on the streets as the death toll from vicious "ethnic
cleansing" continues to rise, prompting many observers to suggest that
a civil war is already underway.
The U.S. and Britain are hoping to transfer responsibility for
much of the day to day security to Iraqi security forces, and are
expecting the new government to take bold steps to dismantle the
militia forces that are the infrastructure of civil warfare. But the
sectarian divisions plague the security forces themselves -- they've
proved most effective in situation where Kurdish and Shiite troops in
government uniforms are deployed against their sectarian foes. And
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's own political base is a coalition of
political parties led by parties closely tied to militia forces.
Maliki's own political position is weak, and he is forced to rely in
particular on the support of the Kurdish factions who are pulling
increasingly away from the national government -- indeed, one of its
first tests will be the
move by new oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani to rein in the Kurdish
administration in the north which has recently negotiated three
separate oil drilling contracts independently of the central government.
And as soon as the new government moves to revisit the constitution, as
promised in the deal to secure Sunni participation, it faces a crisis
over the Kurdish claim on the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which could open
a second front of the civil war.
Prime Minister Maliki said this week that he expects Iraqi
forces to be in control of all but two provinces of Iraq by year's end
-- perhaps in response to pressure from the Shiite base, which has
become increasingly annoyed by U.S. efforts to bring the former
Baathist Sunnis into the political process -- but
Coalition leaders are more optimistic about pulling out over a
four-year period. The idea of Iraqi forces being in a position to
assume control of most of the country any time soon seems optimistic,
and yet the reality suggests that there may not be enough Coalition
troops in Iraq to guarantee security in the face of a mounting
sectarian conflict. Even now, those troops are relying so heavily on
aerial bombardment and search-and-destroy missions that they are
fueling the growth of more radical factions. And yet, the British
experience in Basra suggests that an overly permissive attitude
to the presence of militias allowed those militias to infiltrate and
dominate local Iraqi security forces, and when their political leaders
turned against the presence of Coalition forces, the Brits effectively
lost control of what had once been the most tranquil part of
post-Saddam Iraq. In short, as politically desirable as it may be for
the Coalition leaders at home, there appears to be no prospect of an
exit from Iraq any time soon. Nor, however, is there much optimism that
their continued presence in Iraq can ensure success.
(Informed Comment, May 22, 2006)
The
security situation in Iraq will deteriorate precipitously if the U.S.
attacks Iran, warn Ray Tayekh and Steven Simon. That's because Iraq
will be the initial theater in which Iran responds to any such attack,
and Tehran has prepositioned substantial special forces capability,
with safe houses and intelligence-gathering capability across southern
Iraq, and the U.S. military are vulnerable to both a military and a
political onslaught from Iraqi Shiite militants. There is, however, a
major restraint on Tehran's ability to set Iraq ablaze: Destroying the
new order in Iraq would be counterproductive to Iran's own interests,
since the ascent of its allies to power via the democratic mechanism in
Iraq has substantially expanded Tehran's regional influence. Indeed,
from a strategic perspective, Iran has clearly been the major
beneficiary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and that in itself will give
Iran pause before initiating a campaign whose outcome may reverse
Shiite power in Baghdad. (Washington Post, April 29, 2006)
The
Sunni insurgents, for their part, see a U.S. attack on Iran as
their best hope for recovering lost ground in Baghdad. Ghaith
Abdul-Ahad, in a harrowing look inside the organized nightly sectarian
bloodbath in Baghdad, was told by one of his Sunni guerrilla sources,
"Our only hope is if the Americans hit the Iranians, and by God's will
this day will come very soon, then the Americans will give a medal to
anyone who kills a Shia militiaman. When we feel that an American
attack on Iran is imminent, I myself will shoot anyone who attacks the
Americans and all the mujahideen will join the US army against the
Iranians. Most of my fellow mujahideen are not fighting the Americans
at the moment, they are too busy killing the Shia, and this is only
going to create hatred. If someone kills one of my family I will do
nothing else but kill to avenge their deaths." (The Guardian, May 20,
2002)
An AP interview with U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad offers
a
sober assessment of the challenges facing the new government. The
reaction of leading Sunni politicians to the new government suggests
that their constituency may be likely to resist the outcome. He also
says that now that the government has been formed, it's time for the
U.S. and Iran to talk about Iraq. (Washington Post, May 21, 2006)
Sami Moubayed suggests that
Maliki's political difficulties in filling the security posts in his
cabinet suggest he'll struggle to live up to his promise to use
"maximum force" to restore security. (Asia Times, May 22, 2006)
Simon Jenkins suggests Iraq is a failed state, and that
the only option available to Bush and Blair is to partition the country
and leave. "A crucial illusion of American and British policy is
that the occupation is somehow maintaining the integrity of the state
and its government," he writes. "It is not. It is undermining both. In
truth there is no state and coalition troops are merely squatting in
camps dotted across the landscape, emerging occasionally to kill or get
killed. There are two consequences of each refusal to leave. First, the
troops offer an ever more inviting target for insurgency and a magnet
for anti-western guerrillas from across the region. This in turn boosts
the militias as alternative power networks and encourages politicians
to back them rather than the army. Second, each postponement of
withdrawal undermines the independence and self-reliance of the current
Iraqi leader... Washington and London still do not hear the message,
that their occupation is hugely unpopular among Iraqis, except for
those VIPs whose lives literally depend on it." (The Sunday Times, May
21, 2006)
Jenkins offers an equally
savage critique of Tony Blair's arrival to support Maliki a day after
the new Prime Minister announced his cabinet. "London and
Washington just don't get it," he writes. "Americans and Britons are
not deeply loved by Iraqis just now. Their presence is resented and
their patronage of Maliki will not strengthen but weaken him. It can
only undermine his autonomy and authority in the eyes of his supporters
(and delight his many foes)."
(The Guardian, May 22, 2006)
Ned Parker suggests that
mixed signals from Washington over troop withdrawal may be bolstering
the Sunni insurgency, which trades on the conventional wisdom among
its base that the U.S. has no intention of leaving Iraq. (The Times,
May 22, 2006)
Lt. Gen. William Odom argues that the
U.S. has no prospect of achieving its goals in Iraq, and remaining
there imperils U.S. strategic interests on a number of other fronts.
(Foreign Policy, May-June, 2006)
Previously on Iraq:
--
Partitioning Iraq?
--
New Government, Same Problems
--
Political Paralysis in Iraq
--
The Magnitude of Failure in Iraq
--
A Generational American War?
--
What's Left of Iraq?
A
Palestinian Civil War?
Tension between the Hamas-led Palestinian
government and the Fatah organization of President Mahmoud Abbas has
escalated into a head-on confrontation, now that the former has fielded
a new security force comprised of fighters from various militant
groups. Firefights on the streets of Gaza had an air of inevitability
about them once President Abbas had ordered the Fatah-dominated
security forces under his control to assert its authority, and claim to
a monopoly of force, on the streets of Gaza after
warning Hamas that he deemed its new force illegal. But Hamas
claims to be simply acting on the basis of the division of authority
over security forces between the president and the elected government.
The Bush Administration has come down firmly behind Abbas, insisting
that he should have full control of all security forces -- a 180-degree
reversal of the position it took when Yasser Arafat was president and
Washington demanded that the security forces be put under the control
of the elected government. Until now, both sides have avoided a direct
confrontation, for fear that the resultant chaos will destroy all
institutional authority in the Palestinian territory. But pressure from
the rank and file may be propelling it, particularly from the Fatah
side -- Abbas has limited control over his security forces, which are
an economic base for many of the militants of his organization. Hamas
claims that it wants its own security force precisely to prevent
existing armed groups from using their weapons to protect and advance
their own positions. But presumably the Hamas rank and file would like
to break the Fatah monopoly on salaried security jobs.
Abbas is in a precarious position, goaded by Washington and by
his own base to adopt a more confrontational strategy towards Hamas,
yet aware that his own base -- the Fatah organization -- has been
discredited in the eyes of the Palestinian electorate, and support from
Washington, if anything, has negative value on the Palestinian street.
Hamas is the more disciplined organization, yet it needs Abbas in place
to cover for its own inability, or reluctance -- at this stage, at
least -- to engage with Israel. But even if the Bush administration is
inclined to greet the showdown as an opportunity to reverse the results
of the Palestinian election, Abbas may be reluctant to go that far. And
both sides will likely come under strong pressure from Arab countries
in the days ahead to find a compromise. They will be aware that the
only winner in a Palestinian civil war will be the Israeli leadership,
whose
inclination to unilaterally set borders benefits from political chaos
on the Palestinian side -- even if the long-term security impact
of that chaos may, nonetheless, imperil Israel. The logical outcome of
the policies being pursued by all parties now is the collapse of the
Palestinian Authority. The consequences for the Palestinians are
obvious, but for Israel, too, it would force the resumption of direct
administrative control over Palestinian cities that ended with Oslo.
For the U.S., it would mean an end to any prospect of a two-state
solution, with Washington now seen as indistinguishable from Israel in
Arab eyes. And for the Arab regimes, it means intensified instability,
perhaps even in their security forces, as their citizenry responds to
the Palestinian debacle. Yet, there's a conspicuous absence on all
sides of the political maturity necessary to avert a new catastrophe.
(Haaretz, May 19, 2006)
Khaled Amayreh explains why Israel, the Arab
countries and the U.S. all destined to suffer from the collapse of the
Palestinian Authority, yet all apparently unable to take the steps
necessary to prevent it from occurring. (Al-Ahram, May 18-24, 2006)
Anna Coote reports that
the health infrastructure of the Palestinian territories is collapsing
in the face of the financial blockade promoted by Israel and the U.S.
to starve the Hamas-led government of funding. (Guardian, May 15, 2006)
Former President Jimmy Carter has denounced the U.S.
response to the Hamas election
by a vicious collective punishment that will be disastrous for U.S.
interests in the Middle East.
"Innocent Palestinian people are being treated like animals, with the
presumption that they are guilty of some crime. Because they voted for
candidates who are members of Hamas, the United States government has
become the driving force behind an apparently effective scheme of
depriving the general public of income, access to the outside world and
the necessities of life."
(International Herald Tribune, May 6, 2006)
Mohammed Yaghi warns that
if the U.S. manages to topple Hamas, Fatah will not be restored to
power -- instead, the Palestinian territories will begin to look more
like Somalia. The big winner might be al-Qaeda. (Washington
Institute for Near East Studies, May 16, 2006)
Al-Jazeera reports talks
between Israel and Hamas have been conducted in Israeli prisons. At
the same time, imprisoned Fatah militant Marwan Barghouti appears to
have hammered out a principle agreement with Hamas over a two-state
solution based on the 1967 borders. Selling it to those on the outside
may be another matter. (Al Jazeera, May 11, 2006)
Danny Rubinstein profiles the diplomatic
skills of Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, and notes that he'll
need all of those skills if he's to find a way out of the dilemmas of
power. (Haaretz, May 15,
2006)
Previously on Israel and Palestine:
--Blockade
Will Destroy Palestinian Authority
--The
Politics of Terror
--Reality
of Hamas
Power Forces Strategic Reassessments
--Hamas
Inherits a Policing Dilemma
--Israel
Hopes to Negotiate its Borders with U.S.
--Jericho
Raid Humiliates Abbas
--Hamas
and Israel: An Unspoken Peace?
--Rice
Fails to Secure Hamas Blockade
-- Is
the
U.S. Trying to Reverse the Palestinian Election?
Oil Turns
Geopolitical Tide Against U.S.
The international headlines of the past
month would have been unthinkable five years ago – for a start, the
U.S. was forced to retreat on two major foreign policy positions in the
space of a single week: First, the Middle East "Quartet" successfully
pushed back against U.S. efforts to cut all funding to employees of the
Palestinian Authority; and then Washington's European allies in the
Security Council persuaded it to once again back off its drive for
sanctions against Iran to await the outcome of yet another European
attempt to offer Tehran new incentives for compliance. Elsewhere,
Russia's President Vladimir Putin responded to a tongue-lashing on
democracy from Vice President Dick Cheney by mostly ignoring
Washington, although he did drolly remark that "to talk of an end to
the arms race is premature." China, also, shrugged off such symbolic
slights as its president being denied a state dinner in Washington and
continued to expand its own diplomatic ties in a broad swathe of
countries traditionally aligned with the U.S. while also making clear
that its resistance to Washington's Iran agenda was based on a broader
strategic perspective: Indeed, Beijing joined with Moscow in moving to
induct Iran as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
a Central Asian security body created by Moscow and Beijing to counter
U.S. efforts to expand its own influence in the region. Turkey, long a
close U.S. ally, is cutting an increasingly distant stance, alarmed by
Washington's failure to ensure an outcome in Iraq that protects its
interests.
Even in Latin America, once a mostly unchallenged U.S. sphere
of influence, the political pendulum has swung largely against
Washington, with the main political contest now being one between more
European-like mainstream socialist ruling parties such as those in
Brazil and Argentina, and the more nationalist-populist rulers of
Venezuela and Bolivia (whose recent move to nationalize its energy
reserves was a provocation made possible by the shifting strategic
balance). Of even greater concern to Washington may be the fact that
China is emerging not only as an increasingly important trading partner
of many Latin American countries, but is also beginning to
take a role in training some Latin American armies.
A profound shift is occurring from the post-Cold War moment in
which the sole surviving superpower – the "hyperpower" feared by the
French – could dictate its terms in most corners of the globe, to one
in which the "multipolarity" that seemed like a fantasy in the
thinktanks of Paris and Beijing is fast becoming a reality. And the
primary factor reigniting this newly competitive geopolitical
environment may be oil. China has emerged as a growing power by virtue
of its economic growth and its share of U.S. debt, but its growing
inclination to challenge the U.S. may be based in part on securing its
own, increasingly expansive national interests, particularly in respect
of energy supplies. As oil prices have risen from the $17 a barrel to
over $70 a barrel, Russia has risen from the penury and supplicant
relationship with the West that characterized the Yeltsin era.
President Putin has detached Russia from the West to pursue policies
guided primarily by Russia's own national and regional interests. And
some key U.S. allies in Europe, most notably Germany, are inclined for
reasons of their own energy security to seek to balance their U.S. ties
and a relations with Moscow.
The negative impact of the current oil market on the U.S.
strategic position has been exacerbated by Iraq, where U.S. failure to
prevail in the occupation phase has not only signaled the limits of
U.S. power, but also significantly tightened oil supplies. And both
dimensions -- the U.S. military's troubles in Iraq, and the seller's
market for oil -- have strengthened Iran's hand in the nuclear
showdown.
"In the space of 12 months," writes William Engdahl, "Russia
and China have managed to move the
pieces on the geopolitical chess board of Eurasia away from what had
been an overwhelming U.S. strategic advantage, to the opposite, where
the U.S. is increasingly isolated. It's potentially the greatest
strategic defeat for the U.S. power projection of the post-World War II
period." And that, he says, will accelerate the reemergence of the
realists at the helm of U.S. foreign policy.
(Asia Times, May 9, 2006)
M.K. Bahdrakumar writes that
President Vladimir Putin has now made clear his nationalist vision,
which stands in marked contrast to the foreign policy posture of his
predecessor. Put, says Bahdrakumar, favors "a Russia that is free
from the Yeltsin-era delusions regarding relations with the US. This
stands comprehensively dismantled; its trammels in the political,
economic, military or social spheres have been cast aside." He
continues, "Russia has no need of the Yeltsin era's vacuous liberal
rhetoric, either. Russia will set a course of fundamental revival,
relying paramountly on its own resources, aimed at making the country
capable of safeguarding its vital interests. This involves Russia
consolidating its national strength -- Russia, in other words, must
become a strong state within its natural habitat of the Eurasian space.
Russia indeed is not required to render any apology to Washington while
setting out its national priorities. Putin himself set the example by
completely ignoring Cheney's warning to the Kremlin on good conduct."
(Asia Times, May 11, 2006)
Carnegie's Andrew Kuchins, in conversation with Bernard
Gwertzman, offers a
thoughtful summary of the factors that have driven Russia to challenge
the U.S.. Putin had set out to reverse the economic and
geopolitical decline of the Yeltsin era, although that didn't
necessarily require challenging Washington. But after the two sides had
cooperated to destroy the Taliban, relations went sour starting with
Washington's abrogation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty and the
U.S. reaction to the Khodorkovsky affair, as well as to the democratic
insurrections on Russia's borders.
(Council on Foreign Relations, May 11, 2006)
Reuters reports that Deputy Secretary of State Robert
Zoellick has told Congress that the future
of U.S.-China relations will be determined by Beijing's response to the
Iran nuclear crisis. But his comments didn't seem to have any
impact on China's opposition to a resolution threatening sanctions.
Indeed, it's rather unlikely that Beijing sees the matter of Iran's
nuclear program as a make-or-break issue in its relations with
Washington, as much as an opportunity to signal the U.S. on the extent
to which the geopolitical picture is changing. (Reuters via Washington
Post, May 11, 2006)
The Daily Star reports that Turkey is increasingly dependent
on energy supplies and a trade relationship with Iran, and the two
sides have also identified a common interest in suppressing Kurdish
independence in Iraq. As a result, while formally backing whatever the
UN decides, Turkey
is looking to China and Russia to ensure that no Security Council
action is taken that threatens its relations with Tehran or leads to
military action that Ankara deems a disastrous outcome.
(Daily Star, May 11, 2006)
Nicole Stracke argues that the EU's
interests are better served by working with China and Russia to resolve
the Iran standoff than by following a U.S. strategy that precludes a
diplomatic solution. "The position of the EU-3 was further
complicated by having to consider the U.S. approach, which includes a
rejection of direct talks with Tehran," she writes. "Washington has
also pursued double standard, for example, by punishing Iran for its
nuclear program while not advocating a similar policy vis-a-vis North
Korea. Furthermore, it has been unwilling to give Iran the same
security guarantees it gave North Korea in September 2005, when the
Bush administration agreed 'that it has no intention of attacking North
Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons,' though North Korea and
Iran were both members of the 'axis of evil'... In light of the current
deadlock and the limitations on the EU's negotiation power, one should
question the (EU)'s wisdom in sticking with the U.S. without looking at
other options, especially through China and Russia."
(Daily Star, May 11, 2006)
Christopher Dickey notes that events have
had a strange habit of confirming conspiracy theories on the Bush
Administration's watch
particularly the fact that Halliburton's stock price has increased more
than five-fold since it took office, while Exxon-Mobil's has doubled.
(Newsweek, May 12, 2006)
NATO
Braces for a Long, Hot Afghan Summer
A pitched battle in the town of Mosa Qala
in Helmand province is the latest signal that the Taliban is back. The
Afghan insurgents marched into town to engage Afghan security forces,
and held on overnight in a fierce firefight that saw the Afghan forces
call in NATO support. And that's just the latest in a growing number of
attacks in region where armed Taliban fighters move around in groups by
daylight, asking locals to point out the location of government forces.
Although
President Hamid blamed unnamed Pakistani officials for backing
cross-border raids, he is in fact confronting an indigenous
insurgency being waged by the Taliban forces were dispersed, but not
destroyed, by the U.S.-led operations in 2001. The Taliban have
regrouped, and new alignments have taken shape as powerful local
warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar made common cause with al-Qaeda, and they
are intensifying their offensive in the hope of deterring the NATO
forces that are assuming control of the area from the U.S. Taliban
commanders believe the European and Canadian troops now being deployed
in the south were not expecting to be plunged into a bloody
counterinsurgency war, and that skepticism over such deployments in
their home countries can be intensified by inflicting a steady stream
of casualties. The
Taliban already owns the night in much of southern Afghanistan,
with locals in some areas turning to its courts rather than the
government's own law enforcement system to settle disputes. If they can
bloody the NATO forces, Taliban commanders believe, they can take
effective control of the Pashtun heartland.
(Asia Times, May 15, 2006)
Syed Saleem Shahzad has noted that
Iraqi insurgent groups have shared their experience and methods with
the Taliban, and have allegedly even sent as many as 500 men into the
Afghan-Pakistan border region. Their presence and impact may be
confirmed by the dramatic increase in the use of tactics honed in Iraq
to target U.S. and allied personnel, specifically roadside bombings and
suicide attacks. The Taliban strategy involves attacks on both sides of
the border, and the belief that local warlords can be rallied to a
general uprising against foreign troops in Afghanistan. (Asia Times,
March 15, 2006)
Paul Rogers notes that
the new instability in southern Afghanistan is fueled by an
unprecedented expansion of opium production. Not only is poppy
cultivation back to the highs of the pre-Taliban era, but – in what
development economists might consider progress in respect of any other
primary commodity – more of it than ever is being processed into
finished heroin within Afghanistan's borders.
(Open Democracy, May 5, 2006)
Declan Walsh reports that
Britain's three-year strategy for turning around the security situation
in Helmand involves ignoring the heroin trade, which has become a
mainstay of the region's economy. That's because they're hoping to win
over the 70 percent of the population they estimate swings between
support for the government and support for the Taliban. But, he writes,
skirting the drugs trade in which so many of the region's bad actors
are involved may prove impossible.
(Guardian, May 15, 2006)
Francis Reinheimer parses the
challenge confronting the NATO mission in Afghanistan as it takes
control of the south. NATO is to expand its troop presence from
around 8,000 to around 17,000 by October, while the U.S. will draw down
its own contingent of 19,000 by about 3,000 troops. But the scale of
the mission looks likely to expand as the Taliban mounts its most
ambitious offensive since its dispersal by U.S. led forces in 2001.
Indeed, the Taliban is looking to preemptively raise the cost to NATO
troops of entering the region. "Some U.S. military leaders have
admitted that Stage III of ISAF's mission in Afghanistan will likely
involve some of the fiercest fighting yet witnessed in Afghanistan, in
part because insurgent forces have been allowed to grow in strength as
well as numbers in the south. The security situation has generally
deteriorated and there has been an upsurge in suicide bombings, attacks
on schools, roadside bombings and other violent assaults on high-level
figures and military targets." What may once have been a peacekeeping
mission in Kabul has now turned into a challenging counter-insurgency
deployment for NATO, as the U.S. seeks to reduce its commitment in
Afghanistan in order to ease the burden created by the ongoing Iraq
conflict. (Center for Defense Information, May 15, 2006)
Eben Kaplan explains that the "Taliban" that is
wresting control of parts of Waziristan from the Pakistani authorities
is not the same group as once ruled Afghanistan. Although they're
similar in character and worldview, each is a domestically-based
insurgency. (International Institute of Strategic Studies, April 27,
2006)
The International Crisis Group warns that the
absence of political parties in Afghanistan's new legislature
diminishes its chances of establishing a new order of democracy and
stability. The government of President Hamid Karzai has done all in
its power to prevent parties playing a role in Afghan democracy, but
the result has been to leave him dependent on the goodwill of the
Islamist conservatives and warlords who play the major organizing roles
in a legislature without party organization. (International Crisis
Group, May 15, 2006)
China's Interests
Return Africa to the Strategic Spotlight
The fact that the U.S. military command for
Europe spends 70 percent of its time focused on issues in Africa should
come as no surprise given the shifts in global trends that have seen
Africa make an unlikely return to the geopolitical spotlight. In the
wake of the Cold War in which each side backed its proxy forces in a
classic "great game," the global focus shifted elsewhere and Africa was
largely ignored as the continent was ravaged by AID, famine and the
epic bloodbaths of Liberia-Sierra Leone and Rwanda-Congo, even as
democracy took hold in some 40 percent of the continent's states and
its healthier economies displayed impressive growth figures. But the
twin crises of terrorism and energy security have compelled the U.S. to
devote considerably more focus to African problems. West Africa has
long been identified as a major source of oil imports for the U.S., but
some of its Muslim nations have also been identified by al-Qaeda as
theaters of operations. The big geopolitical shift, however, has been
the emergence of Chinese influence. Although China is driven by its
need to procure the extensive supplies of raw materials available in
Africa, including oil and natural gas, it is approaching
the continent in a manner quite different from Washington, offering
African leaders a 'strategic partnership'. And in scale of economic
investment, China may have the edge, too, with its emphasis on primary
industries: Chinese imports from Africa, mostly raw materials,
increased 81 percent in the past year. Chinese involvement in Africa
also has clear political consequences, for example in the sluggishness
with which the UN has responded to the crisis in Darfur, in part
because of China's trade relations with the government of Sudan. (Wall
Street Journal via Yale Global, April 28, 2006)
|
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Bacevich: Imperial Troubles
U.S. Global Hegemony Confronts Harsh
Realities
Once, Andrew Bacevich fought in the same ideological trenches as the
neoconservatives in publications such as the National Review and the
Weekly Standard. But as the former Vietnam veteran and long-time
professional military officer began to sense that the neocons had been
seduced by visions of American Empire, he began to distance himself
from them, becoming one of the most thoughtful critics of the current
malaise in U.S. national security policy. In a typically thoughtful
interview, Tom Engelhardt of the always excellent Web magazine TomDispatch, engaged Bacevich
on a range of contemporary crises confronting the U.S.
"It's become incontrovertible that the Iraq War is
not going to end happily," Bacevich tells Engelhardt. "Even if we
manage to extricate ourselves and some sort of stable Iraq emerges from
the present chaos, arguing that the war lived up to the expectations of
the Bush administration is going to be very difficult. My own sense is
that the officer corps -- and this probably reflects my personal
experience to a great degree -- is fixated on Vietnam and still
believes the military was hung out to dry there. The officer corps came
out of the Vietnam War determined never to repeat that experience and
some officers are now angry to discover that the Army is once again
stuck in a quagmire. So we are in the early stages of a long argument
about who is to be blamed for the Iraq debacle. I think, to some
degree, the revolt of the generals reflects an effort on the part of
senior military officers to weigh in, to lay out the military's case.
And the military's case is: We're not at fault. They are; and, more
specifically, he is -- with Rumsfeld being the stand-in for Robert
McNamara. Having said that, with all the speculation about Bush
administration interest in expanding the Global War on Terror to
include Iran, I suspect the officer corps, already seeing the military
badly overstretched, doesn't want to have any part of such a war. Going
public with attacks on Rumsfeld is one way of trying to slow whatever
momentum there is toward an Iran war. I must say, I don't really think
we're on a track to have a war with Iran any time soon -- maybe I'm too
optimistic here -- but I suspect even the civilian hawks understand
that the United States is already overcommitted, that to expand the war
on terror to a new theater, the Iranian theater, would in all
likelihood have the most dire consequences, globally and in Iraq.
... There are a couple of important implications
that we have yet to confront. The (Iraq) war has exposed the limited
depth of American military power. I mean, since the end of the Cold War
we Americans have been beating our chests about being the greatest
military power the world has ever seen. Overshadowing the power of the
Third Reich! Overshadowing the Roman Empire!
Wait a sec. This country of 290 million people has a force of about
130,000 soldiers committed in Iraq, fighting something on the order of
10-20,000 insurgents and a) we're in a war we can't win, b) we're in
the fourth year of a war we probably can't sustain much longer. For
those who believe in the American imperial project, and who see
military supremacy as the foundation of that empire, this ought to be a
major concern: What are we going to do to strengthen the sinews of
American military power, because it's turned out that our vaunted
military supremacy is not what it was cracked up to be. If you're like
me and you're quite skeptical about this imperial project, the stresses
imposed on the military and the obvious limits of our power simply
serve to emphasize the imperative of rethinking our role in the world
so we can back away from this unsustainable notion of global hegemony.
"Then, there's the matter of competence. I object to
the generals saying that our problems in Iraq are all due to the
micromanagement and incompetence of Mr. Rumsfeld -- I do think he's a
micromanager and a failure and ought to have been fired long ago --
because it distracts attention from the woeful performance of the
senior military leaders who have really made a hash of the Iraq
insurgency. I remember General Swannack in particular blaming Rumsfeld
for Abu Ghraib. I'll saddle Rumsfeld with about ten percent of the
blame for Abu Ghraib, the other ninety percent rests with the senior
American military leaders in Baghdad… (General Ricardo) Sanchez being
number one. So again, if one is an enthusiast for American military
supremacy, we have some serious thinking to do about the quality of our
senior leadership. Are we picking the right people to be our two,
three, and four-star commanders? Are we training them, educating them
properly for the responsibilities that they face? The Iraq War has
revealed some major weaknesses in that regard."
Click here to
read the full interview. (TomDispatch, May 22, 2006)

Amir Taheri: "Fantastic Credibility"
Iran's "Nazi" Clothing Laws: Anatomy of a Media
Hoax
Last Friday saw a flurry of stories going up across the media and the
blogosphere claiming that Iran's parliament had adopted legislation
that would compel all non-Muslim minorities to wear strips of cloth on
their clothing identifying themselves as such to others. Naturally, the
idea that Iran's Jews would be forced to wear yellow, just like the
yellow Star of David that Nazi laws forced Jews to wear, created a
connection between the Iranian regime and the Nazis, which was exactly
the intention of its author. The story spread virally before anyone
noticed that it was all based on a single story in
Canada's National Post, in which no sources or evidence was offered
in support of the claim. No sooner had the reports begun to appear than
even in Israel, a consensus quickly emerged among Iran watchers that
they were bogus, although that didn't stop government officials in the
U.S., Canada and Australia, as well as various Jewish human rights
groups, from issuing fierce denunciations -- which, in turn, actually
reinforced the sense that the story may have been valid.
Taheri stuck by
his story, but the paper that originally published it beat a hasty
retreat. The same afternoon, they'd published an article expressing
skepticism over the claims, and this week
the National Post formally apologized for running a story that it now
says is not true.
Jim Lobe explains that the story was fabricated on
the basis of a parliamentary discussion over a national dress code,
which in reality it had no reference to minorities, and appeared
directed more at Iranian women. A Jewish member of parliament in Iran,
Maurice Motamed, was incensed, and said the story was a "fabrication"
and "an insult" to Iran's minorities. But some of the newspapers
aligned with neoconservative politics that had first amplified the
story refused to let it go. Perhaps it fit too well with their beating
of the war drums against Iran.
Writes Lobe, "the (New York) Sun, without endorsing
the specific contents of the National Post articles, refused to drop
the story, quoting 'a leading spokesman for Iranian Jews,' the
secretary general of the Iranian American Jewish Federation in Los
Angeles, Sam Kermanian, as thanking 'the world for its outcry' over the
original reports and praising Taheri as 'someone with fantastic
credibility'. " Perhaps someone ought to apprise Kermanian of the
etymology of "fantastic."
(Asia Times, May 24, 2006)

Bend it like Mahmoud? Ahmedinajad warms up with Iran's
national team
Iran Heading for World Cup Showdown?
Unable to make much headway on the drive for sanctions against Iran
over its nuclear program, some Western politicians are looking for
innovative ways to punish Tehran. And with Iran due to join 31 other
countries at the sporting world's premier event next month -- soccer's
World Cup -- some European politicians, backed by Israel, want the host
nation, Germany, to ban President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad from attending.
Ahmedinajad is known to be a soccer fan, and he also demonstrated a
keen sense of the populist appeal of the sport when he recently
challenged the Mullahs by attempting to reverse a decree banning women
from attending matches. Some politicians even hoped to have the whole
Iran team banned, but
FIFA, soccer's governing body, has ruled out that option. Still,
with German law making a crime of Holocaust denial, Israel and some
European politicians are hoping that Germany will prevent the Iranian
president from attending. German officials have also said they have no indication that
Ahmedinajad plans to attend any of his country's matches and note
that the fact that he would have to answer criticism for his stance on
Israel and the Holocaust might deter him. Then again, his track record
suggests that prospect may actually encourage him. His attendance would
certainly put Germany on the spot, and if sensitive negotiations are
underway between the West and Tehran, the abrasive President may see
showing up at the World Cup as just the ticket to creating a new furor
and sabotaging efforts at rapprochement. (Sunday Times, May 7, 2006)

Different Paths: Brazil's Lula and Venezuela's Chavez
Left vs. Left in Latin America
It has long been self-evident that the Left has turned back the tide in
Latin America since the triumph of U.S. geopolitical and economic
perspectives at the end of the 1980s. A decade of neo-liberal economics
has done little to lift much of the region out of poverty, and has only
deepened the divide between rich and poor. And Latin American nations
have seen countries such as Argentina prove that the sky does not fall
in when even deeply troubled nations buck the IMF.
"Starting with Hugo Chávez's victory in
Venezuela eight years ago and poised to culminate in the possible
election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico's July
2 presidential contest, a wave of leaders, parties, and movements
generically labeled "leftist" have swept into power in one Latin
American country after another," writes Jorge G. Castañeda.
"After Chávez, it was Lula and the Workers' Party in Brazil,
then Néstor Kirchner in Argentina and Tabaré
Vázquez in Uruguay, and then, earlier this year, Evo Morales in
Bolivia. If the long shot Ollanta Humala wins the April presidential
election in Peru and López Obrador wins in Mexico, it will seem
as if a veritable left-wing tsunami has hit the region. Colombia and
Central America are the only exceptions, but even in Nicaragua, the
possibility of a win by Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega cannot be
dismissed."
Indeed, as the furor over the
announcement by Bolivia's new populist leader Evo Morales that the
country's hydrocarbons would be nationalized demonstrates, today
the major political contest in Latin
America is no longer between Left and Right, but between two contending
outlooks on the Left. "One is modern, open-minded, reformist, and
internationalist, and it springs, paradoxically, from the hard-core
left of the past," he writes. "The other, born of the great tradition
of Latin American populism, is nationalist, strident, and close-minded.
The first is well aware of its past mistakes (as well as those of its
erstwhile role models in Cuba and the Soviet Union) and has changed
accordingly. The second, unfortunately, has not."
He offers a thoughtful history of the Left in Latin
America, establishing the factors that have driven the emergence of
what he terms the "right Left" (as opposed to the "wrong Left"
personified by Chavez). Much more European and Centrist in outlook, it
remains the region's best hope for democratic development.
Castañeda warns against a knee-jerk Cold War type response to
the provocations of Chavez, suggesting that the more aggressive the
response from Washington, the more damaging the outcome will be to both
U.S. and Latin American interests. The more centrist Left of Mexico,
Chile, Argentina and Brazil ultimately have the policies that negate
the Venezuelan leader's posturing, but if he becomes the object of a
renewed push into the region by the politically discredited
administration in Washington, Chavez will emerge the winner. (Foreign
Affairs, May-June 2006)

Ahmedinajad: Scary, perhaps, but he's not in charge
Iran's President Rattles Sabers, But He Doesn't
Call the Shots
Memo to the editors of America: Mahmoud Ahmedinajad does not, repeat
NOT, rule Iran. Executive power in the Islamic Republic, and
particularly control over foreign policy and security issues, is
ultimately in the hands of unelected clerics -- and Ahmedinajad is not
one of them. While the U.S. news media seemed well apprised of this
fact during the presidency of the reformist Mohammed Khatami, for some
reason it has been forgotten now that Iran is ruled by a conservative
populist who loves making wild threats, particularly where Israel is
concerned. That may be grist to the mill for those seeking to make the
case that Iran represents a global menace -- and the Iranians have
themselves to blame for not speaking with one voice -- but
Ahmedinajad's rants do not represent Iran's positions. So, when the
U.S. media reports
that Iran has called off talks with the U.S. over Iraq because
Ahmedinajad has said they're no longer necessary, it behooves editors
to dig a little deeper, for the simple reason that Ahmedinajad does not
make foreign policy.
Executive authority over all matters of foreign
policy and national security remains in the hands of the Supreme
Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who, incidentally, backed the candidacy
of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani against Ahmedinajad's.
The Supreme Leader, of course, tends to consult on these matters and
follow the consensus on the National Security Council, a body of about
a dozen figures, including representatives of the Expediency Council,
chaired by Rafsanjani, and the heads of the security forces, as well as
President Ahmedinajad. But his voice is simply one of many, and he has
to lobby for his positions -- which is one reason he spends so much
time making demagogic speeches designed to rally popular support for
his uncompromising positions.
The National Security Council is chaired by Ali
Larijani, who also ran for president against Ahmedinajad. And Larijani,
who is in charge of Iran's negotiations over the nuclear issue, as well
as the proposed talks with Washington over Iraq, reports not to the
president, but to the Supreme Leader. And the message
projected by Larijani is quite different from that of
Ahmedinajad. For example, the U.S. press reported Ahmedinajad's threat
that Iran might withdraw from the Non Proliferation Treaty, but
Larijani explains why this is not necessary. Still, Iran's
ambiguous communication with the world works to the advantage of
hard-liners in the West, while Iranian pragmatists are increasingly
worried about the damage being wrought by Ahmedinajad's reckless
rhetoric. Iran's nuclear policy is increasingly the focus of an
escalating power struggle within the Tehran regime, but that in
itself should alert Western journalists and editors to the fact that as
juicy as his quotes may be, Ahmedinajad's bluster can hardly be
construed as Iran's policy. (Time,
April 20, 2006)

The Poor Man's Air Force
Mike Davis provides a fascinating history of the
car-bomb and its
evolution as a weapon in contemporary conflict, from its roots among
anarchists in New York through its uses by both sides in
Israel-Palestine in the mid 1940s, through internecine Mafia wars in
Sicily in the early 1960s via Algeria, to more contemporary
incarnations in Beirut, Ireland and Sri Lanka. Davis explores the
emergence of the technology that levels the playing field in
destructive power between conventional armies and terror outfits.
Summarizing their advantages, he notes the following:
"First, vehicle bombs are stealth weapons of
surprising
power and destructive efficiency. Trucks, vans, or even SUVs can easily
transport the equivalent of several conventional 1,000-pound bombs to
the doorstep of a prime target. Moreover, their destructive power is
still evolving, thanks to the constant tinkering of ingenious
bomb-makers. We have yet to face the full horror of semi-trailer-sized
explosions with a lethal blast range of 200 yards or of dirty bombs
sheathed in enough nuclear waste to render mid-Manhattan radioactive
for generations.
"Second, they are extraordinarily cheap: 40 or
50
people
can be massacred with a stolen car and maybe $400 of fertilizer and
bootlegged electronics. Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 attack
on the World Trade Center, bragged that his most expensive outlay was
in long-distance phone calls. The explosive itself (one half ton of
urea) cost $3,615 plus the $59 per day rental for a ten-foot-long Ryder
van. In contrast, the cruise missiles that have become the classic
American riposte to overseas terrorist attacks cost $1.1 million each.
"Third, car bombings are operationally simple to
organize. Although some still refuse to believe that Timothy McVeigh
and Terry Nichols didn't have secret assistance from a government or
dark entity, two men in the proverbial phone booth -- a security-guard
and a farmer -- successfully planned and executed the horrendous
Oklahoma City bombing with instructional books and information acquired
from the gun-show circuit.
"Fourth, like even the 'smartest' of aerial
bombs,
car
bombs are inherently indiscriminate: "Collateral damage" is virtually
inevitable. If the logic of an attack is to slaughter innocents and sow
panic in the widest circle, to operate a "strategy of tension," or just
demoralize a society, car bombs are ideal. But they are equally
effective at destroying the moral credibility of a cause and alienating
its mass base of support, as both the IRA and the ETA in Spain have
independently discovered. The car bomb is an inherently fascist weapon.
"Fifth, car bombs are highly anonymous and leave
minimal
forensic evidence. Buda quietly went home to Italy, leaving William
Burns, J. Edgar Hoover, and the Bureau of Investigation (later, to be
renamed the FBI) to make fools of themselves as they chased one false
lead after another for a decade. Most of Buda's descendants have also
escaped identification and arrest. Anonymity, in addition, greatly
recommends car bombs to those who like to disguise their handiwork,
including the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, the Syrian GSD, the Iranian
Pasdaran, and the Pakistani ISI -- all of whom have caused unspeakable
carnage with such devices.
In his followup piece, he
examines the politics of some of the groups using car bombs and how the
weapon interacts with those. He also notes that car bombing and
IEDs in Iraq have forced an occupation authority to retreat into the
tiny quadrant of the capital known at "The Green Zone." (TomDispatch,
April , 2006)

Beirut Takes a Time Out From the 'Clash of
Cultures'
In the not too distant past, the observation that Beirut "has a lot of
secret stuff going on" would have referred to clandestine political and
military operations of radical factions, espionage duels, kidnappings
and the plotting of a bloody civil war. Today, it's the raison d'etre
offered by the publishers of Time Out Beirut, the local edition of the
London-based magazine franchise that showcase hedonistic delights of
all the world's great metropolises for a weekly readership. The idea
that Beirut will have its own edition, starting as a monthly, may be
the surest sign that the city has put the scars of civil war behind it,
and epitomizes a new optimism in the wake of the Syrian withdrawal. And
it also blows something of a raspberry in the direction of those who
insist that we're in the throes of a clash of cultures.
(Daily Star, April 7, 2006)

Hamas's cabinet is sworn in
Should the West Engage With Radical Islamists?
Mark Perry and Alastair Crooke are former Western intelligence
officials who have, along with a number of their colleagues, been holding
talks with officials from Hamas, Hezbollah and Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood. These officials, who worked at the highest levels of
British and U.S. intelligence, have recognized that the political
momentum in the Arab world is with the Islamists, but in the course of
their discussions they have recognized a profoundly important
distinction between the interests and agendas of nationally-based
groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and the transnational jihadists of
al-Qaeda. (Indeed, the same distinction was clearly on view recently
when
Hamas firmly rejected Al Qaeda's demand that it fight on and reject
compromise -- the premise of the brusque rebuff by Prime Minister
Ismail Haniya was that the Palestinians don't need Al-Qaeda's advice.
Crooke and Perry believe that the West is making a tragic mistake if it
continues to conflate these two groups, rather than recognizing the
considerable basis for dialogue and even common interests (particularly
in democracy) with some of the nationally-based Islamist groups. They
sought to brief the U.S. government on their discussions but were
rebuffed, on the grounds that such a briefing would be seen to be
legitimizing talks with terrorists. They write:
"The question of legitimacy is important
because
for
democracies, legitimacy is not conferred, but earned at the ballot box.
Hamas and Hezbollah would welcome a dialogue with the West not because
it would confer 'legitimacy' - they already have that - but because
such a dialogue would acknowledge the differences between Islamist
movements that represent actual constituencies from those (such as
al-Qaeda and its allied movements) that represent no one....
"There is no question that two of the groups
with
whom
we spoke - Hamas and Hezbollah - have adopted violent tactics to
forward their political goals. They are not alone: Fatah (whose
candidates for election the US supported with US$2 million in campaign
funds) continues to use violence (and kidnap Westerners), so do the
Tamil Tigers, so did the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the African
National Congress. So too does the United States. America's insistence
that Hamas and Hezbollah 'renounce violence' and 'disarm' is dismissed
by these groups as not only an invitation to surrender but, in light of
the continuing and increasingly indefensible use of alarmingly
disproportionate US and British firepower in Iraq, the rankest
hypocrisy.
"The West's seeming abhorrence of violence
is
derived
from its deeply rooted belief that political change is possible without
it. But defending this proposition requires an extraordinary exercise
in historical amnesia....
"The leaders of major Islamist organizations
view
the
issue of violence in the same way Americans do - as a legitimate option
that is applied to establish deterrence and stability and to defend and
promote their interests. For Hamas and Hezbollah, 'armed resistance' is
a way of balancing the asymmetry of force available to Israel. Both
groups place their use of violence in a political context.
" 'Armed resistance is not simply a tool
that we
use
to
respond to Israeli aggression,' a Hamas leader averred. 'It gives our
people confidence that they are being defended, that they have an
identity, that someone is trying to balance the scales.
"Hezbollah puts this idea in the same
political
context:
'It may be that some day we will have to sit down across from our
enemies and talk to them about a political settlement. That could
happen,' reflected Nawaf Mousawi, the chief of the Hezbollah's foreign
relations department. 'But no political agreement will be possible
until they respect us. I want them to know that when they're sitting
there across from us that if they decide to get up and walk away,
they'll have to pay a price.'
"The West's insistence that opening a
political
dialogue
be preceded by and conditioned on disarmament is simply unrealistic: it
suggests that we believe that 'our' violence is benevolent while
'theirs' is unreasoning and random - that a 19-year-old rifle-toting
American in Fallujah is somehow less dangerous than a 19-year-old
Shi'ite in southern Lebanon.
"In fact, political agreements have rarely
been
preceded
by disarmament. United Nations demands for the disarmament of the South
West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) in 1978 unraveled a
conflict-ending political agreement (a situation put right when the
rebels were allowed to keep their weapons), and Northern Ireland's
'Good Friday Agreement' allowed the IRA to keep its weapons until a
political process (leading to 'decommissioning') reflecting their
concerns was put in place.
"The West often views Islamic violence as
random
and
unreasoning, but Hamas and Hezbollah believe that violence can shift
practical political considerations to create a psychology in which
armed groups can use the tool of de-escalation as a way of forwarding a
political process. That is to say, absent a political agreement, Hamas
and Hezbollah will not voluntarily abandon what they view as their only
defense against the overwhelming weight of Israeli military power.
"Disarmament (or 'demilitarization') is
possible: it
worked in Northern Ireland and South Africa. When coupled with
substantive political talks, the unification of armed elements into a
single security or military force - demilitarization - provides the
best hope for increased stability and security in Lebanon, the West
Bank and Gaza."
(Asia Times, March 30, 2006)
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