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MOVING
TOWARDS A PERFECT STORM IN IRAQ

Removing the dead after the assassination of of Ezzedin Salim,
the head of the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council |
THE
ASSASSINATION OF THE HEAD OF THE PROVISIONAL
GOVERNMENT
With
only six weeks left to go, the Bush administration remains determined to
turn over Iraq's sovereignty to an interim Iraqi administration. It is less
clear what that will actually mean and who will want to take on the job.
Iraqi sovereignty without the power to control an effective military force
is essentially
meaningless.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Iraqi police and defense forces
being put together by the U.S. and Britain have been heavily infiltrated
by potential insurgents and is unlikely to be reliable. The assassination
of Ezzedin Salim makes two points very clear: 1) the U.S., at the height
of its power right now, is still incapable of guaranteeing the protection
of Iraqis in critical positions, 2) Once the U.S. starts to pull out, anyone
who is associated with the American-backed administration can expect to
be assassinated. Understandably, the U.S. and Britain are under increasing
pressure to send in more troops at precisely the time when domestic pressure
is building to bring the troops home. (The Economist, May 17, 2004)
•Juan
Cole on transfer of sovereignty
•The
BBC on pressure to find an exit strategy
•The
expectation is for a sovereignty that is largely rigged by Washington The
Wall Street Journal's Yochi Dreazen and Christopher Cooper report that the
U.S. is desperately trying to put a wide range of institutions in place
which will cement American control over Iraq's politics for the forseeable
future. One example: Larry Bremer recently yanked authority to grant television,
cell phone and newspaper licenses away from Iraq's Ministry of Communications,
and handed it to a 5-man panel which was carefully selected by Bremer's
bosses in Washington. In characteristic style, Bremer neglected to tell
the ministry's head, Haider al-Abadi, that he no longer had any control
over his own administration. (Dreazen and Cooper, Wall Street Journal via
Khilafa.com, May 16, 2004) SEYMOUR
HERSH'S EXPLOSIVE ARTICLE IN THE NEW YORKER
Quoting highly placed CIA officials, Seymour Hersh reports that a
top secret program authorized U.S. intelligence agents to use sexual humiliation
and physical coercion in order to get information from terrorist suspects.
According to Hersh's sources, the program was pushed by Donald Rumsfeld
and more closely followed by Rumsfeld's protege, Stephen Cambone. Both
Condoleeza Rice and President Bush were informed of its existence. The
plan turned sour, Hersh suggests, when the Pentagon enalrged the operation
to include ordinary suspects and lower ranking military personnel began
copying tactics previously limited to a few highly trained professionals.
(Seymour
Hersh, The New Yorker, May 17, 2004)
•Seymour
Hersh and Senator Carl Levin on CBS' "Face The Nation" Hersh
points out that the Bush administration is furious about the New Yorker
article, but it hasn't actually denied the facts reported in it. Senator
Carl Levin says he has a commitment from Senate Armed Services chairman
Warner that investigations will continue. (Face the Nation, CBS News,
May 16, 2004- pdf transcript)
NEWSWEEK:
THE WHITE HOUSE MEMOS
Newsweek reports that some U.S. soldiers and CIA operatives may eventually
be accused of war crimes. The photograph of a hooded Iraqi with electric
wires attached to his hands is actually a replay of a torture technique
which U.S. professionals nicknamed "the Vietnam." Ordinary military
police are unlikely to have known about it. It seems much more likely
that an intelligence professional introduced them to the concept. That
means that responsibility for the abuse in Iraq extends higher than the
enlisted men now on trial. According to Newsweek, a cabal of right wing
lawyers in the White House argued that in the wake of 9/11, international
laws and the Geneva convention were no longer applicable. Guantanamo Bay
was chosen as a prison precisely because it could be argued to be in a
legal twilight zone. White House legal counsel, Alberto Gonzales, argued
in a memo that the Geneva Convention should be disallowed so that administration
officials would be able to defend themselves at a later date against prosecution
under legislation passed in 1996 which makes war crimes a prosecutable
offense under U.S. law. As Gonzales explained his thinking to Bush, "In
my judgment, this new paradigm renders obsolete Geneva's strict limitations
on questioning of enemy prisoners and renders quaint some of its provisions."
(Newsweek, May 17, 2004)
WASHINGTON
POST: THE "FEAR UP HARSH" MEMO
According to the Washington Post, that Colonel Thomas M. Pappas, the
head of U.S. intelligence operations at Abu Ghraib prison, notified Lieutenant
General Ricardo Sanchez, the commanding general in Iraq, last November
that he planned to force a prisoner to a race with a hood over his head
through a gauntlet of attack dogs in order to terrorize him. Pappas called
the technique, "Fear Harsh Up" and interrogators joked that
it would diminish the prisoners belief in" the Allah factor",
i.e. that God could save him. The Post says that Army documents state
that Pappas wanted military police to throw chairs and tables in the path
of the Iraqi detainee, and to invade his "personal space." Sanchez
assigned Pappas authority over the military police guarding prisoners
on November 19, eleven days before the photographed abuse of prisoners
took place. Sanchez, who has also been cited by Brigadier General Janis
Karpinski, refused comment to the Post. (R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington
Post, May 15, 2004)
ROBERT
JAY LIFTON: ON CREATING THE CONDITIONS FOR ATROCITY
In "atrocity producing" situations, perfectly ordinary people
can find themselves committing monstrous acts. The Germans learned that
under World War II Nazism. The U.S. had an uncomfortable taste of it from
the My Lai massacre in Vietnam, and now in Iraq. "What ultimately
drives the dynamic," notes Lifton, "is an ideological vision
that equates Iraqi fighters with "terrorists" and seeks to further
justify the invasion. All this is part of the amorphous, even apocalyptic,
"war on terrorism," as is the practice of denying the human
rights of detainees labeled as terrorists..." (Robert Jay Lifton,
The Nation, May 17, 2004)
COLIN
POWELL ON "MEET THE PRESS"
Speaking from the World Economic Forum's regional meeting in Jordan,
Colin Powell did his best to counter the firestorm building up mover the
administration's handling of Iraq. The most dramatic point of the interview
came when Powell's press secretary tried forcefully to knock Powell off
the air, effectively terminating the interview by swinging the camera
away. Powell finally told his press secretary to get out of the way and
stop trying to block the broadcast. Senators McCain and Biden also appeared
on the show. (Meet The Press, May 16, 2004)
•incident
reported in the New York Times
•Summaries
of discussions at the World Economic Forum meeting in Jordan
ANTHONY
CORDESMAN: U.S. OFFICIALS IN A STATE OF DENIAL
While the U.S. can still prevail militarily over any specific insurgent
group in Iraq, the chances are evaporating for creating a viable independent
state based on democratic principles. It is even less probable that the
final outcome will be pro-American. Cordesman notes that American officials
in Iraq appear to be in a state of denial about the fact that the majority
of the Iraqi public sees both Najaf and Fallujah as U.S. military defeats.
(Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May
5, 2004)
CONGRESSIONAL
RESEARCH SERVICE: AL QAEDA ATTACKS BEFORE AND AFTER 9/11
According
to the Congressional Research Service, Al Qaeda was responsible for four
attacks before 9/11, and a total of ten since then. Statistics are approximate
since despite the war on terror, the U.S. government has published no
official figures after 2002. (Congressional Research Service, March 31,
2004)
A
"SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL" BRIEFS ON THE STRATEGY OF INTERROGATION
(Lawrence
De Rita, and "Senior Military Officials," the Pentagon, May
14, 2004)
• The New York
City Bar Association on the U.S. and International Laws concerning torture
•New
Yor Bar on indefinite detention
CHINA:
MIXED REACTIONS TO U.S. SCANDALS IN IRAQ
While
the Chinese government relishes the irony of seeing the U.S. accused of
human rights abuse in Iraq, Chinese internet chat groups are showing a
different reaction. To many ordinary Chinese, the fact that the U.S. is
honestly exploring its weaknesses and failures in public on television
and in the press has earned the admiration of those who live in a more
closed society.(Anthony J. Spires in Yale Global On Line, May 14, 2004)
U.S.
ARMY WAR COLLEGE: IRAQ IS NOT VIETNAM, BUT...
The
size of the U.S. commitment in Vietnam was vastly greater than the U.S.
effort in Iraq has been so far and the tactical situation was completely
different. But the war in Vietnam resembles Iraq in the inability of the
U.S. to create a viable state in a radically different cultural environment
and the time limit imposed by growing public resistance to the the war
at home. If Iraq goes the same way as Vietnam, it will have disastrous
implications for the future of U.S. foreign policy (By Jeffrey Record
and W. Andrew Terrill, the Strategic Studies Institute, the U.S. Army
War College, Carlisle Barracks, May 2004)
U.S.
ISSUES HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT
The annual report on U.S. efforts to promote human rights and democracy
in the rest of the world is required by Congress. The report was delayed
briefly this year because of the scandal over abuse of prisoners in Iraq.
(State Department, May 17, 2004
THE
RAFAH ATTACK
Israel claims that it just wanted to send a warning when it fired
tank round, machineguns and missiles from helicopters into a crowd of
Palestinian protesters at a refugee camp in Southern Gaza. At least 8
people were killed, and dozens injured. The Palestinians are claiming
that the attack constitutes a war crime, and they want an international
force to mediate a ceasefire. The Israelis are determined to continue
with their campaign intended to stop smuggling of guns and supplies into
the area. (Haaretz, May 19, 2004)
•BBC
Report
•Al
Jazeera
INDIA'S
SONIA GHANDI DECIDES SHE DOES NOT WANT TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER
Sensitive to violent reactions from India's unltranationalist Hindu
BJP party and to the assassinations of her husband and mother-in-law,
Indira Ghandi, Italian-born Sonia says that an inner voice has told her
not to take the post. there have been strong reactions in new Delhi, urging
her to reverse her decision. Some experts speculate that the election
victory, which came partly as a reaction to the excesses of the BJP, had
taken Ms. Ghandi by surprise. She never expected to win at this early
stage. The rest of India seems primarily concerned with establishing a
stable government that will pay more attention to India's crushing poverty.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Teresita Schaffer
and Sumit Ganguly, who heads India studies at Indiana University, discuss
the implications with Ray Suarez on PBS' News Hour. (News Hour, May 18,
2004)
•BBC:
Congress Party picks Manmohan Singh as next PM
•TIMES
OF INDIA:Sonia wants to remain in politics
•HINDUSTAN
TIMES:Manmohan Singh will be first prime minister from a minority community
 |
|
 |
WHERE
DID IT ALL GO WRONG?RETHINKING THE BUBBLE OF AMERICAN EMPIRE
In a prophetic essay in the Atlantic Monthly last December, the
financier George Soros argued that the Bush administration had used
9/11 to impose a radical neoconservative shift in U.S. foreign policy.
Soros' essay is worth rereading now that history has shown his analysis
to have been extraordinarily prescient. Soros writes: "...September
11 could not have changed the course of history to the extent that
it has if President Bush had not responded to it the way he did.
He declared war on terrorism, and under that guise implemented a
radical foreign-policy agenda whose underlying principles predated
the tragedy. Those principles can be summed up as follows: International
relations are relations of power, not law; power prevails and law
legitimizes what prevails. The United States is unquestionably the
dominant power in the post-Cold War world; it is therefore in a
position to impose its views, interests, and values. The world would
benefit from adopting those values, because the American model has
demonstrated its superiority. The Clinton and first Bush Administrations
failed to use the full potential of American power. This must be
corrected; the United States must find a way to assert its supremacy
in the world.
This foreign policy is part of a comprehensive ideology customarily
referred to as neoconservatism, though I prefer to describe it as
a crude form of social Darwinism. I call it crude because it ignores
the role of cooperation in the survival of the fittest, and puts
all the emphasis on competition. In economic matters the competition
is between firms; in international relations it is between states.
In economic matters social Darwinism takes the form of market fundamentalism;
in international relations it is now leading to the pursuit of American
supremacy...
The Bush doctrine, first enunciated in a presidential speech at
West Point in June of 2002, and incorporated into the National Security
Strategy three months later, is built on two pillars: the United
States will do everything in its power to maintain its unquestioned
military supremacy; and the United States arrogates the right to
pre-emptive action. In effect, the doctrine establishes two classes
of sovereignty: the sovereignty of the United States, which takes
precedence over international treaties and obligations; and the
sovereignty of all other states, which is subject to the will of
the United States. This is reminiscent of George Orwell's Animal
Farm: all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than
others....
(George Soros, The Atlantic Monthly, December 2003)
THE
SPECTATOR: BRITAIN ALMOST A PARIAH
"...Today
there is no pleasure in being British," writes Peter Oborne,
"We are almost a pariah nation. Ordinary British citizens are
now starting to learn about the terrible things that have been done
in our name. We have been collaborators with the Americans in something
so gross, murderous, barbaric and obscene that it defies belief.
It is no excuse that US troops have been responsible for the most
bestial of the atrocities. We are part of a joint command in Iraq,
and thus share the joint shame. Tony Blair went to great lengths
to share the credit with President Bush during their triumphalist,
flag-draped victory summit 12 months ago. Now he must stomach the
disgrace..."(Peter Oborne, The Spectator,May 15, 2004)
ROBIN
WRIGHT: FAILING CIVILIZATION AT THE END OF THE MODERN ERA
"...I've covered the rage of the Islamic world," writes
Robin Wright, "witnessing much of it up close, losing friends
who became victims to its extremist wings and watching its furies
swell. But I've never been scared until now.
"The stakes in Iraq -- for which the Abu Ghraib prison has
tragically become the metaphor -- are not just the future of a fragile
oil-rich country or America's credibility in the world, even among
close allies. The issues are not simply whether the Pentagon has
systemic problems or whether Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld,
the Pentagon brass or even the Bush administration can survive The
Pictures. And the costs are not merely the billions from the U.S.
Treasury to foot the Iraq bills today or the danger that Mideast
oil becomes a political weapon during tumultuous days down the road.
"The stakes are instead how the final phase of the Modern Era
plays out..."
(Robin Wright, The Washington Post, May 16, 2004)
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