Nigel Chamberlain: on North Korea's threat to an entire region Ralph Cossa: on who blinked first, and why William Dowell: after victory in Iraq, where do we go from here? Damien LaVera: on the real message of Iraq and North korea--nuclear weapons do make a difference

New York University

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism

U.S. TROOPS OPEN FIRE ON IRAQI DEMONSTRATORS IN FALLUJA
The U.S. Command in Qatar insists that American troops from the 82nd Airborne were forced to open fire on an approaching crowd of about 200 demonstrators. According to the U.S. account, about 25 armed agitators mingled with the protesters and opened fire on the Americans from within the crowd. The obvious goal appeared to be to get Americans to shoot at unarmed civilians. The tactic worked. Iraqis say that at least 13 people were killed—three of them small boys under ten years old. Another 75 were wounded. The U.S. central Command insists that it has no way of determining how many people were killed or wounded since everyone dispersed after the shooting started and the crowd took the wounded with them.
(Ian Fisher, New York Times, April 20, 2003)
The Jim Lehrer NewsHour provides a concise summary of the events.
U.S. CENTCOM’s statement concerning the incident

WHAT FUTURE FOR THE U.N.?
The dreams of establishing order through binding international law have largely failed, Michael Glennon notes in the current issue of Foreign Affairs. Glennon maintains that the invasion of Iraq demonstrates that nations do not have to consider whether armed intervention is legal, merely that it is preferable to other alternatives. "The Structure of the U.N. Security Council," Gelnnon says,"reflected the hopes of its founders, more than reality. Those hopes were no match for American hyperpower." It is in fact, the end of a grand illusion. (Michael Glennon in Foreign Affairs, May/June 2003)

IF THE U.S. FINDS IRAQ PERPLEXING, IT'S WORTH REMEMBERING ISRAELI'S EXPERIENCE IN LEBANON
Greg Myre, writing in the New York Times, recalls that Shiite villagers tossed flowers at Israeli troops when they entered Lebanon to drive the PLO out in 1982. Within months the Israelis were being pelted with bombs and fired at by snipers. David Kimche, who headed Israel's foreign ministry at the time, noted that Israel's biggest mistake was to let security considerations take precedence over its contact with the population. Checkpoints and curfews led to an increasingly ugly mood which culminated in the creation of the Hizbollah,one of the most vicious terrorist threats menacing Israel today.
(Greg Myre, The New York Times, April 27, 2003)

SUICIDE BOMB IN TEL AVIV
An Israeli security guard tried to intercept the suicide bomber at Mike's Bar in Tel Aviv, but was unable to prevent him from detonating a bomb that killed three and wounded 40. The real target of the bomb appeared to be the new administration of the Palestinian Authority's new prime minister, Abu Mazen, as well as the U.S. and British-backed peace "roadmap".
(BBC, April 29, 2003)

ISRAELIS DON'T EXPECT SERIOUS HELP FROM ABU MAZEN
Israel's military intelligence warned the government at the beginning of the week that Abu Mazen is not likely to do more than talk to Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders about stopping terror. The reason is that he controls only a third of the Palestinian Authority, and the other two thirds, controlled by Arafat and the various terrorist movements still see violence as an effective strategy.(Amos harel, Ha'aretz, April 30, 2003)

IRAQ BRIEFING
It is going to take a considerable effort to piece Iraq back together again. The Brookings Insitution analyzes the situation up to now in a panel discussion with Kenneth Pollack, Shibley Telhami, Seyom Brown, Martin Indyk, Roberta Cohen and Eric Schwarz.
(Brookings, April 23, 2003)

COMPUTER SCIENCE CORP. AND THE POLICING OF IRAQ
Earlier this year, Computer Sciences Corporation bought DynCorp International, a PMC (private military company) which has just won a contract that could go as high as $50 million over the next year. DynCorp's mandate is to provide 1,000 advisors to help form Iraq’s police department, judicial branch and prison system. The U.S. State Department will foot the bill for housing and food. The civilian police advisors will earn $63,000 to $74,000 a year, tax free. For the moment, the administration is asking Congress for $25 million to get the project moving, and planning to take part of the money from the anti-drug operations in Afghanistan. The end fee for DynCorp could add up to $250 million. DynCorp may also get the State Department to fork over $22 million as a stop gap operation to hire 150 former policemen for immediate duty in Iraq. Their salaries are likely to range from $46,000 to $96,000 a year. Given the budget cutbacks in American cities--New York expects a deficit of up to $4 billion--finding candidates should not be difficult.
(David Isenberg, Asia Times, April 30, 2003)

THE JORDANIAN "INCONVENIENCE" OF AHMAD CHALABI
Like Saddam Hussein, Iraqi opposition leader Ahmed Chalabi once found it prudent to escape across a border dressed as a Bedouin woman. The Middle East News Agency reports that In 1989, Jordan accused Chalabi of embezzling $30 million while he was chairman and general manager of the Petra Bank. Prosecutors claimed that Chalabi had adopted a financial plan to fit his personal interests and those of his relatives at the expense of shareholders. He was also accused of using forged documents to hoodwink investors and of smuggling large sums of money outside the country disguised as "investment decisions." After a 2-1/2 year investigation, he was convicted in absentia and sentenced to 22 years in prison.

PYONGYANG WILL STOP MAKING PLUTONIUM, BUT WHAT DOES IT WANT IN EXCHANGE
Fred Kaplan, writing in Slate, provides a guide to the latest developments. The North Koreans will stop processing spent nuclear fuel, but in exchange they want security and financial concessions which Washington finds unacceptable. War looks pretty unacceptable too. The answer, Kaplan suggests, may e an agreement that allows the U.S. to destroy Korea’s nuclear stockpile once and for all.

NORTH KOREA WAR SCENARIOS
If the U.S. is forced to go to war with North Korea now, it will confront a 1.2 million-man army—the world’s fourth largest fighting force—and it will have to contend with 11,000 pieces of artillery targeted against the 10 million people who live in Seoul. CDI examines the likely war scenarios (pdf file, 22 pages).
(Center for Defense Information, April 2003)

NORTH KOREA TALKING POINTS
Is Kim Jong Il crazy or stupid? Don’t count on it. Does he violate international agreements? You bet. Did the Clinton policy fail? That’s a matter of opinion. So far, the U.S. State Department’s strategy has kept Pyongyang from building up to 30 nuclear bombs. Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang examine the fine points of dealing with North Korea in Foreign Policy.
(Victor D. Cha, David Kang, Foreign Policy, April 2003)

NORTH KOREA’S WEAPONS
(Congressional Research Service-Library of Congress, 16 pages, pdf)

DEFENDING THE HOME FRONT
Civil Defense reached its highpoint in the early 1960s when private citizens equipped their homemade bomb shelters with tear gas and assault rifles to keep the neighbors out when Armageddon hit. It looks like the average American is on is own again. Despite the fact that a tenth of the $41 billion budgeted to Homeland Security is earmarked for civilian defense, the most innovative idea the agency has come up with is the infamous "Duct Tape" strategy. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists argues, nevertheless, that a few precautions can go a long way.
(Peter Amacher, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2003)

REMEMBER TAJIKISTAN?
When the U.S. was going after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, it promised substantial aid to the neighboring countries in Central Asia. Then Iraq came along and those early promises of development assistance were largely forgotten. As a result, Tajikistan—one of the world’s 20 poorest countries—has become a hotbed for drug traffickers and a potential breeding ground for Islamic extremists. (International Crisis Group, April 24, 2003)

DISARMING LANDMINES
Travel across the desert in Egypt, and you are likely to trigger a landmine left over from World War II. At the current rate that governments and NGOs are demining former combat spots, it could take 400 to 500 years to undo the explosive pollution of the last century’s conflicts. But the RAND Corporation notes that innovative new solutions may shorten the process. (Downloadable book in pdf format)
(RAND, April 2003)

DAVOS IN JORDAN
The World Economic Forum plans to hold an unusual extraordinary annual meeting in Amman, Jordan on June 21-23, with 1,900 business and political leaders. The objective: open a new page in international relations. Klaus Schwab translates that as working to "overcome the negative atmosphere which is prevailing in today's politics and which creates so much pessimism in the global economy." (Middle East News Agency, April 29, 2003)

U.S. FORCES TO PULL OUT OF SAUDI ARABIA
One of the arguments for invading Iraq was the insistent pressure from Riyadh which would eventually have forced U.S. troops to withdraw from Saudi territory. It is not that the Saudis don’t want U.S. help. They do. But the presence infidels on the sacred sand of the guardians of Mecca was becoming an explosive domestic issue. It was one of the main reasons that Osama Bin Laden used for marshalling support against the Al Saud family and against the U.S. With Iraq neutralized, the Pentagon has announced that it will mothball its operations at Prince Sultan airbase and move to Qatar. (BBC, April 29, 2003)

FRANK RICH ON THE LOOTING OF IRAQ
When the U.S. decided to send half a dozen tanks to protect Iraq’s Ministry of Petroleum, and none to protect Baghdad’s National Museum said as much about the administration’s priorities as it did about Iraq. Notes Rich: "The tragedy for America is not just the loss itself but the naked revelation of our worst instincts at the very dawn of our grandiose project to bring democratic values to the Middle East… We may have been unable to protect tablets containing missing pieces of the Gilgamesh epic. But somehow we did manage to secure the lavish homes of Saddam's hierarchy, where the cultural gems ranged from videos of old James Bond movies to the collected novels of Danielle Steel…"
(Frank Rich, New York Times, April 27, 2003)

HENRY WAXMAN ON THE LOOTING OF WASHINGTON
Whether Dick Cheney’s former role as CEO of Halliburton had anything to do with it or not, the Vice-President’s former employer stands to profit enormously from the War in Iraq. The Pentagon awarded Halliburton’s subsidiary, Kellogg Brown & Root Services, a contract with a ceiling of $7 billion over the next two years to put out oil fires and provide support to U.S. operations in Iraq. So far, Halliburton has only received orders for $50 million on the contract. The Army argues that Halliburton’s subsidiary was the only company qualified to do the work because it had compiled the contingency plans for reacting to the Invasion of Iraq as part of a contract, LOGCAP, which the Pentagon had awarded it back in 2001. Competitive bids could not be put out, because the plan was classified and only Kellogg Brown and Root had the security clearance to know its details. Congressman Henry Waxman, ranking minority member of the House Committee on Government Reform has asked the GAO for an investigation.
(Henry Waxman, House Committee on Government Reform, April 2003)
Waxman’s letter requesting an investigation from the GAO
The Response form The Army Corps of Engineers
An index of Waxman’s correspondence.

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