ORIGINAL MATERIAL PRODUCED BY THE GLOBAL BEAT SYNDICATE Conn Hallinan: on robots and pork barrel defense expenditures; $702 billion buys a lot of good will on election day... Tad Daley: on the Bush administration's rekindling of the Cold War... Eugene Kogan: the new U.S. -sponsored U.N. resolution on Weapons of Mass Destruction is strong on demands and weak on consequences... Nigel Chamberlain: on renewing nuclear cooperation with Briatin under the "special relationship"

New York University

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INCREASING THE PRESSURE
Ariel Sharon’s decision to kill Hamas leader, Abdel Aziz Rantissi, last weekend, may have been motivated by domestic Israeli politics, but the fact that the assassination came only days after Sharon conferred with President Bush has convinced many Arabs that Sharon received a greenlight for the hit from Washington. As a result, the U.S. is even more deeply implicated in a bloody struggle that many Arabs feel is being influenced by U.S. policy. The immediate reaction from Hamas was to go underground. There is growing concern in Israel that Hamas may now try to rebase its command elements in Syria. Jordan's King Abdullah has indefinitely postponed a visit with President Bush. Lebanon's president has publicly blamed the U.S. for Rantissi's death.
Rita Boustani reports on Lebanese reactions in Beirut's Daily Star (Monday, May 19, 2004)
•Arabs expect more Israeli attacks (Al Jazeera, Monday May 19, 2004)

Hamas' new leader, Khaled Mashaal

•Peter Beaumont in the Guardian: Rantissi was an intelligent man, who understood the meaning of humanity, and chose to reject it.
•Haaretz speculates that theassassination achieves two of Hamas' chief objectives: permanently derailing the U.S. peace plan and insuring that Hamas will be part of the new administration in Gaza.
•Syria-based hardliner Khaled Mashaal emerges as new Hamas leader

BOB WOODWARD'S BOMBSHELL
The most explosive news in Bob Woodward's new book may be the allegation that Saudi Arabia offered to use its power to manipulate gasoline prices in order to manipulate the U.S. elections in favor of the Bush administration--an October surprise at the fuel pumps. The Saudis have already denied the charge. Woodward also provides graphic portraits, including one in which Colin Powell advises the president on Iraq, that he is on "Pottery Barn" rules: if he breaks it, it is his. Powell has denied that he was the last to be informed about Iraq, but Woodward based his reporting on interviews with 75 administration officials. CBS editors listened to tape recordings of sources not directly named in the book before interviewing Woodward for 60 Minutes. (Bob Woodward on CBS 60 Minutes, April 18, 2004). The book is excerpted in five parts in the Washington Post.
•Part 1 •Part 2 •Part 3

THE SAUDI EXIT
Whether or not the Saudis planned to use oil prices to help manipulate elections in President Bush's favor, there is no question that Saudis who had close ties to the Bush family, were allowed to secretly exit the United States immediately after the 9/11 attack against the World Trade Center. Craig Unger, author of "House of Bush, House of Saud," notes that the Saudis who left included the late Prince Ahmed bin Salman, who was suspected of having acquaintances connected to Al Qaeda. Unger, who previously edited Boston Magazine and reported for Esquire, explains his findings on Tom Paine.com

IRAQ'S SHIITE UPRISING BRINGS IRAN INTO THE PICTURE
Martin Sieff, writing for In The Public Interest, notes that a former Iranian intelligence officer quoted by a London-based Arab newspaper reports that Iran may now be financing the Shiite resistance in Iraq to the tune of $70 million a month. The Shiites supporting Muqtada al Sadr are also believed to be getting support from Lebanon's Hizbollah, which has close ties to Iran's revolutionary guards. (Martin Sieff, the Public Interest, April 2004)

ATTEMPTS TO LAUNCH A DEAL WITH IRAN FELL THROUGH AFTER DIPLOMAT'S ASSASSINATION
The assassination of Iran's top diplomat in Baghdad, Khalil Naimi, appears to have dealt the final blow to U.S. efforts to get Iran to help negotiate a peace in Iraq. Naimi's care was riddled with machinegun fire as it left the Iranian compound. But by then, high ranking officials in Teheran had already made it clear that they wanted nothing to do with the U.S. occupation. Ardeshir Moaveni details recent developments in Eurasianet. (Ardeshir Moaveni, Eurasianet.org, April 16, 2004)

IN SEARCH OF HIZBOLLAH
Anyone who wants to know what to expect with the Shiites in Iraq should look at the history of the Hizbollah in Beirut. Initially, Lebanese Shiites welcomed Israel's intervention in Beirut, expecting protection from Palestinian incursions. The mood changed quickly, and Israel was forced to beat a hasty retreat. Adam Schatz offers background on the movement in the current issue of the New York Review of Books.
(Adam Schatz, New York Review of Books, April 29, 2004)
•The International Crisis Group briefing on Hizbollah
(July2003)

ISRAELI TRAINING FOR THE U.S. IN IRAQ
Israel's brutal but effective tactics directed at controlling rebellious Palestinians have apparently inspired the Pentagon. The BBC's Defense Correspondent, Jonathan Marcus, reports that Israeli military advisors have been invited to U.S. training exercises and that U.S. commanders are drawing on Israel's experience in the occupied territories and Gaza for ideas on how to pacify Iraq. (Jonathan Marcus, BBC, April 14, 2004)

REMEMBER NURI SAID PASHA?
Britain's puppet ruler of Iraq in the 1950s did not last long, but his wry comment on governing the ungovernable has endured: "You can always rent an Arab," Said remarked,"but you can never own one." Said's point was demonstrated clearly when his mangled body was dragged through the streets by rebellious Iraqi army officers. John Helmer, writing in Russia Journal, notes that Iraq's defense forces will remain loyal to Washington's vision only as long as U.S. troops remain on the ground in Iraq. Russia is concerned that a long, drawn out war, will lead to gradual U.S. expansion in the region. For that reason it wants an international solution as quickly as possible.
(John Helmer, Russia Journal, April 19, 2004)

OUTSOURCING THE WAR
The U.S. now has 15,000 civilian contract personnel doing military duties--essentially mercenaries --assigned in Iraq. As with the 600 detainees held at Guantanamo, these people are essentially outside the rules of war. Peter Singer explores the implications of a situation which appears to have grown spontaneously.(Peter Singer, Brookings Institution, April 16, 2004)

THE COST OF EMPIRE
David Isenberg notes that the War in Iraq is now costing the U.S. roughly $4 billion a month, or around $48 billion a year, and that amount is likely to climb in the near future. Invasions, it turns out, are relatively cheap compared to occupation. The heavy drain on U.S. finances could eventually destabilize the U.S. economy and is already having a dramatic impact on U.S. defense capabilities. The military wants to increase active duty personnel by more than 80,000 personnel at a time when enlistments are down. Possibly even more dangerous is the tendency of empire builders to sink into a kind of paranoid self-delusion in which those who criticize empire-building are denounced as anti-patriotic. (David Isenberg, The Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, April 20, 2004)

CSIS REVIEWS IRAQ DEVELOLPMENTS
The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Anthony Cordesman, Bathsheba Crocker and John Alterman, discuss the evolution of the situation in Iraq. Essentially, the U.S. now finds itself confronting four concurrent wars: the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, the Middle East, the War on Terror, and a potentially explosive situation in Pakistan.
(CSIS, April 14, 2004)

THE STRANGE CASE OF MORDECHAI VANUNU
Eighteen years ago, Mordechai Vanunu published evidence in the London Sunday Times that Israel had launched a top-secret nuclear weapons program at Dimona. Mossad agents kidnapped Vanunu while he was in Rome, and then subjected the Israeli scientists to a trial in secret. Vanunu is now due for release, and apparently no more repentant than he was when he first opposed the Israeli program. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists provides a guide to background information on the case. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 19, 2004)

UZBEKISTAN DIVERSIFIES SECURITY APPARATUS
Faced with a series of destabilizing terrorist attacks, Uzbekistan's authoritarian regime is beefing up its secret police. Igor Torbakov reports in Eurasianet. (Eurasianet.org, April 19, 2004)
•Uzbekistan closes offices of George Soros' Open Society Institute.(Eurasianet.org)

SOLVING NORTHERN UGANDA
The 18-year war in Uganda, which involves the Lords Army, staffed partly by child soldiers, is still carrying out atrocities. The International Crisis Group has just published a new analysis of one of Africa's most barbarous wars. (ICG, April 19, 2004)

U.S. troops question an Iraqi suspect AL QAEDA'S MASTER PLAN FOR IRAQ? The Norwegian Defense Research Institute has translated a strategic document that it believes may be the master blue print for Al Qaeda's strategy against the U.S. occupation in Iraq. the document, which circulated on extremist websites on the Internet last September, calls for isolating the U.S. occupation in order to make the war prohibitively expensive. An analysis of three key coalition members indicates that Spain is the most vulnerable to pressure. The document recommends three or four sharp blows against the Spanish timed to the March elections. The document reasons that a Spanish withdrawal will increase pressure on England and Poland to also pull out. The war will then become too expensive for the U.S. to pursue on its own. The Norwegian analysts were particularly impressed by the sophisticated political analysis of each country involved in the coalition. (FFI, March 19, 2004) •To read the Norwegian analysis, click here •The Carnegie Endowment's Husain Haqqani comments on the document ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS •Al Qaeda's Secret Plan •The post 9/11 Saudi Exodus •Iran may be supporting Iraqi Shiites •Outsourcing the war •The strange case of Mordechai Vanunu ATTACK ON IRAQ PRISON INTENDED TO SHOW U.S. LOSS OF CONTROL The U.S. currently detains nearly 4,000 Iraqi civilians who may or may not have been involved in insurgent activities against the U.S. occupation. In order to control the situation, the U.S. has reopened the prisons once used by Saddam Hussein. At least 22 detainees were killed and another 100 wounded in a lethal mortar attack on one of the most dreaded prisons just outside Baghdad. The attack seemed designed to show that the U.S. is unable to guarantee protection of detainees in custody. In a perverse way, the attack may stiffen resistance to U.S. troops attempting to make sweepiung arrests. University of Michigan Professor Juan Cole analyzes the strategy in "Informed Comment." (April 20, 2004)   DOES A JUNE 30 DEADLINE MAKE SENSE FOR THE TRANSFER OF SOVEREIGNTY? The U.S. transfer of sovereignty in Iraq will leave more than 130,000 U.S. troops in the country with no direct control over the political process. That sounds like a recipe for disaster, yet anti-American sentiments are now running so high that a turn-over may be the only option. Nancy Soderberg, vice president of the International Crisis Group, Michael Rubin, a former staff assistant in the office of the secretary of defense,and Adeed Dawisha, a professor of political science at Miami University of Ohio, discussed the options on PBS's News Hour. (Jim Lehrer News Hour, April 19, 2004) JOE BIDEN'S CRITIQUE The Senate Foreign Relations Committee's ranking Democrat, Joseph Biden is becoming increasingly outspoken on Iraq. The following is an excerpt of Biden's recent presentation to the Center for Strategic and International Studies: "I come here today out of a deep and abiding frustration hardened by a nagging belief that time is rapidly running out on getting it right in Iraq. Time is running out and there is a glaring need to be brutally frank about the challenge we face and completely honest with the American people about what will be required of them in this war....there are certain basic choices this Administration has made over the past year that were seriously flawed and further reduced the odds of success. My critique is not the product of 20/20 hindsight. In the lead up to the war... during the war... in its aftermath... and today... thoughtful people of both parties... from John Kerry to Bill Kristol... urged the Administration to correct course...This Administration is full of bright, patriotic, well-meaning people. But they began this undertaking with one fundamentally flawed assumption: that Saddam Hussein posed an imminent threat to America's security. And they compounded that mistake by failing to apply, as Fareed Zakaria has put it, sufficient power and sufficient legitimacy. These deficits - of power and legitimacy - have cost us the visible support of the majority of Iraqis who reject a theocracy and support a pluralistic Iraq. And they have cost us the help of the major world powers. The result is a vacuum... filled now by Sunni malcontents and Shia extremists and Jihadists... who are rising up against the American "occupiers." To understand where we must go from here, we have to understand the missteps we've already taken... (Senator Joseph Biden, speech delivered to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 15, 2004) (For full text, click here)

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