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Islamic Jihad militants strike a pose. A suicide bomb in Tel Aviv
claimed both by IJ and the Fatah affiliated Aksa Martyr's Brigade is a
challenge to the authority of Hamas |
The Politics
of Palestinian Terror
Monday's suicide bombing in Tel Aviv that
killed nine Israelis and wounded many more highlights the increasingly
bizarre political standoff over Palestinian government, and the
untenability of the positions taken thus far by Hamas as well as by
Israel and the United States. Although Hamas spokesmen instinctively
defended the terror strike as an act of "self defense" in retaliation
for Israel's shelling of Gaza, the attack was a brazen challenge to
Hamas by Islamic Jihad and Fatah -- Hamas, after all, has maintained a
year long ceasefire which it is hoping to extend, while its rivals are
using attacks on Israel via homemade rockets and suicide bombers as a
means of challenging the authority of the newly elected Hamas
government. But Hamas's response won't serve its political priorities,
which are to replace the funding withdrawn by Israel and the West. The
diplomatic imperative will force Hamas to do more to assert its
authority and ensure that rival factions stick by the terms of its own
cease-fire.
Ironically, perhaps, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud
Abbas unreservedly condemned the action, even though members of his own
organization claimed responsibility and have mounted a number of other
attacks. The U.S. is hoping that financial
pressure will force the Palestinian electorate to reverse itself in
short order and restore Abbas and Fatah to power. Yet, Monday's bombing
makes perfectly clear that Abbas is no more likely to restrict suicide
bombers. Moreover, he is -- with U.S. encouragement -- trying to stymie the
efforts of the elected Hamas government to assert control over the
security forces (a principle demanded by the U.S. during Yasser
Arafat's presidency), appointing his own loyalists to command key
forces. But leaders of Abbas's own organization, Fatah, have been
actively pursuing a campaign of violence against Israelis (including
rocket attacks and suicide bombings) as part of its effort to undermine
Hamas's authority, and there's little reason to believe Abbas's
loyalists will take forceful steps to stop terror attacks. Indeed,
Hamas arguably has more incentive to do so right now.
And then there's the U.S. response to the bombing, which focus only on
the Hamas statement on the bombing and not on the identity of the
perpetrators. After all, Fatah is the party Washington is trying to
restore to power. The financial blockade led by Washington, meanwhile,
is reducing the Palestinians to penury and Israel's siege is
threatening a humanitarian crisis, making prospects for stabilizing the
increasingly anarchic politics of Gaza all the more remote. And as the
Palestinians hunt for cash to the pay the wage bill on which much of
the population depends, it is being offered help from Iran,
Russia
and even Syria,
suggesting that offering cash to the Palestinians is now a geopolitical
game of sticking it to Washington. This morbid standoff cannot long
continue. (Haaretz, April 17, 2006)
Speaker of the Palestinian parliament, Abdul-Aziz Duwaik,
tells Eric Silverman Hamas-led
government's plans to handle its multiple financial and security
challenges. On the security front, he says, the priority is getting
weapons off the streets, to prevent them serving as the basis of
political power -- disarming rival factions who are currently attacking
Israel will have to proceed gradually, he says.
(Al Ahram, April 13-19, 2006)
Conal Urquhart reports on the
impact of Israel's siege and the Western financial blockade on Gaza,
whose million residents are living on the verge of a man-made
humanitarian disaster. (The Observer, April 16, 2006)
Gaza economist Mohammed El-Samhouri writes that
the recent focus on the cutoff of external sources of revenue to the
Palestinians have laid bare their absolute dependence on aid and mostly
non-economic forms of employment. The circumstances of the
Palestinians prevent them developing a self-sustaining economy, he
writes. "International aid can help mitigate Palestinian suffering, but
it will not end it; nor will it enable Palestinians to build a
self-sustaining economy. Only a fair, negotiated political settlement
that fundamentally transforms the Palestinian condition will resolve
the economic calamity that has already started."
(Daily Star, April 16, 2006)
Henry Siegman warns that as distasteful as dealing with it
may be to Israel and the U.S., Hamas remains Israel's
last chance for achieving a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
"An Israeli and Western policy of engagement and negotiation with Hamas
could encourage fundamental changes in Hamas's policies, and eventually
in its ideology," he writes. "One great advantage of a strategy of
engagement with Hamas over a strategy of isolating and undermining it
is that Israel would be able to move from a policy of engagement to one
of confrontation if it becomes clear that engagement has failed. A
movement in the opposite direction will not be possible. And the cost
of failure is likely to be the end of a two-state solution to the
conflict, with all that implies for the future of the Jewish state that
is situated within a region whose 'clash of civilizations' may just be
getting underway."
(New York Review of Books, April 27, 2006)
Previously on Israel and Palestine:
--Reality
of Hamas
Power Forces Strategic Reassessments
--Hamas
Inherits a Policing Dilemma
--Israel
Hopes to Negotiate its Borders with U.S.
--Jericho
Raid Humiliates Abbas
--Hamas
and Israel: An Unspoken Peace?
--Rice
Fails to Secure Hamas Blockade
-- Is
the
U.S. Trying to Reverse the Palestinian Election?
U.S.-Iran:
March to War or Smoke and Mirrors?
While many commentators note with alarm the
similarity between prewar Bush administration discourse on Iraq and its
current discussions on Iran, and others
report on war plans in the making, it's far from clear whether a
similar process of preparing the public is already under way, or if the
reports are the product of leaks by elements of the national security
bureaucracy pushing back against plans for war -- or even simply subtle
saber-rattling designed to intimidate Iran into being more pliant in
the negotiation process. Even though military action is far from
decided because of its
limits as a means of dealing with Iran's nuclear program, the Bush
administration's professed interest in a diplomatic solution is
undermined by its refusal to hold direct talks with Iran on the issue
-- despite
Democratic and Republican senators echoing the call by European allies
for Washington to talk to Tehran. And in the absence of workable
diplomatic strategy, the discourse now being publicly developed by the
administration on Iran, and the war planning process, in the absence of
a workable diplomatic strategy, can
achieve their own momentum which will be difficult to reverse.
On the Iranian side, too, there is both debate and bluff.
President Ahmedinajad is plainly in no mood to compromise and resumed
threatening to destroy Israel, but his executive power is trumped by
that of Ayatollah Ali Khameini and even at least one of his appointees,
Expediency Council head Ali Akbar Rafsanjani. And are
reportedly seeking a compromise in which Iran maintains a small
164-centrifuge enrichment research facility, but agrees to its
industrial scale nuclear fuel being produced outside of Iran. Last
week's announcement that Iran had successfully enriched a small amount
of uranium by centrifuge highlighted both Iran's internal debates and,
perhaps, the negotiating strategy of its leadership. The claims of
enrichment -- which have yet to be verified by IAEA observers who were
present -- were accompanied by a warning by President Ahmedinajad that
"nobody has the right to compromise" on Iran's right to enrich uranium.
The choice of words seems to suggest the warning was directed at rivals
in the Iranian leadership, since no one else would be in a position to
compromise. More importantly, however, by claiming to have succeeded in
enriching uranium, Iran may have been
wanting to move the debate beyond the sticking point of Iran's demand
to maintain a research facility by stating as an established fact that
Iran had successfully enriched uranium -- the U.S. and Britain had
opposed the proposal of a research facility on the grounds that it
would allow Tehran to master the technology of enrichment. (Iran now
claims that it already has.) If so, then an announcement that was
widely reported as an upping of the ante may in fact presage an
imminent compromise on Iran's part. Then again, as in Washington,
internal power struggles and rhetoric may acquire a life of their own.
(The Observer, April 16, 2006)
Ehsan Ahrari notes that for China and Russia, the
Iran nuclear issue is read in the context of a broader, shared
strategic imperative of constraining U.S. power.
(Yale Global, April 14, 2006)
Ahrari's point appears to be born out in the report by M.K.
Bhadrakumar that
Moscow and Beijing have invited Tehran to join the Shanghai Cooperation
Council as a full member, along with India, Pakistan and Mongolia.
Upgrading Tehran's status in a regional security body that
conspicuously excludes Washington and whose strategic purpose, in no
small part, is to organize a regional counterweight to what the
principals see as U.S. encroachment on their turf, sends a blunt
political message.
(Asia Times, April 18, 2006)
Former Iraq weapons inspector David Albright examines recent
satellite images of Iran's nuclear facilities and concludes that Iran
would need a decade to install the number of centrifuges necessary to
produce its own nuclear fuel. He also notes the expansion of
underground facilities, and has suggested that the
window of opportunity during which a bombing campaign could eliminate
Iran's nuclear program has already closed.(Institute for Science
and International Security, April 14, 2006)
Anatole Lieven makes
the the case for accepting limited Iranian nuclear enrichment under
tighter monitoring. That would give the international community a
clear signal at least 18 months ahead of time of the danger of Iran
producing nuclear weapons, during which any means necessary would be
adopted to stop it. Unlike current U.S. efforts, he notes, this
proposal could create an international consensus. (Washington Post,
April 12, 2006)
Richard Haass argues that
military action should not be under consideration right now, but
instead a credible diplomatic strategy is needed. Iran needs to
face the threat of military action only as a last resort, if it refuses
a package of incentives for refraining from going nuclear, including
security guarantees. In other words, if it serious about diplomacy, the
Bush administration must be ready to renounce
regime change and instead engage with the regime in Tehran.
(Council on Foreign Relations, April 11, 2006)
Tony Karon argues that the
revolt of the retired U.S. generals against Donald Rumsfeld is driven
by concerns over Iran rather than Iraq.
"By publicly challenging Rummy's handling of Iraq, the generals send a
none-too-subtle signal to the U.S. public, in an election year, that
the Bush administration is strategically incompetent," he writes, and
that would help make it politically prohibitive for the Bush
administration to launch another "reckless misadventure" in Iran.
(Rootless Cosmopolitan, April 17, 2006)
Richard Clarke and Stephen Simon warn that
the Iranian response to any bombing would bloody the U.S., and likely
prompt the President to retaliate further upping the ante by a wide
ranging series of air strikes, drawing America into a wider war that
consolidates the power of the mullahs. (New York Times, April 16,
2006)
Khalid Hroub suggests that
the Arab world, too, begin talking directly with Iran now, rather than
pretending the problem that can be wished away or solved by the U.S.
"If the Arabs ally themselves with the U.S. against Iran
they will be endangering their own interests and regional stability,"
he writes. "Iranian political and spiritual leaders believe Iran is the
natural source of authority for the region's Shiites, including Arab
Shiites. However, many Arab Shiites reject Iranian political, as
opposed to spiritual, authority. That won't prevent Iran from using the
Shiite card in the event Arab states support American hostilities
against Iran. True regional chaos is yet to come, but the Arabs should
take preventive measures before it is too late."
(Daily Star, April 14, 2006)
Der Spiegel notes that despite strong public support over
its nuclear stance, the Iranian
regime is being challenged by a wave of industrial strikes spurred by
grinding poverty. And that's a reminder that Iran's economic
situation creates a pressure on the regime to repair relations with the
industrialized world. (Der Spiegel, April 12, 2006)
Background Material on Iran
Seymour Hersh reports on U.S.
military planning for an attack on Iran and explains the reasons
that advocates of such a course of action are winning teh debate inside
the Bush administration. (The New
Yorker, April 10, 2006)
The Center for Strategic and International Studies offers a
detailed technical
assessment of Iran's nuclear program, and also parses
the strategic options available to the U.S. if diplomacy fails.
(Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 7, 2006)
The Center for Defense Information has posted
extracts from the IAEA report on Iran which is to be discussed by the
Security Council. (CDI, March 6,
2006)
Iran's UN ambassador Javad Sarif, in a New York Times op ed,
sets out sets
out Tehran's negotiating position on the nuclear issue. Iran has no
intention of building nuclear weapons, he insists, and is willing to
negotiate on the basis providing new guarantees to win Western
confidence in this assertion, including expanded inspections and the
creation of an international consortium to supply Iran's reactor fuel.
(New York Times, April 7,
2006)
Christopher de Bellaigue offers a comprehensive
analysis of the Iranian regime's nuclear intentions and its strategy
for handling the standoff with the U.S.
(New York Review of Books, April 27,
2006)
The Oxford Research Group assesses the
effectiveness of military options against Iran, and concludes they
are unlikely to restrain Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but will
promote chaos and instability.
(Oxford Research Group, February, 2006)
Ray Tayekh explains the factional disputes at the
heart of the Tehran regime, suggesting that the path of
confrontation is preferred by a new generation of conservatives
hardened during the Iran-Iraq war, and that the current atmosphere of
crisis strengthens their hand domestically.
(The National Interest, Spring, 2006)
Henry Sokolski suggests that the current debate over how to
stop Iran going nuclear is fruitless. Instead, he offers a
long-term strategy for managing Western rivalry with a nuclear-armed
Iran. (Transatlantic Institute, March 16, 2006)
Previously on Iran:
--
04.05.06: Military Action Against Iran?
--
03.29.06: Bush Iran Strategy Hits a Wall
--
03.22.06: Has Britain Put U.S. on the Spot?
--
03.15.06: Regime Change or Normalization?
--
03.01.06: Nuclear Standoff Escalates
--
02.21.06: Dangers of a Military Option
--
02.28.06: Tehran Raises
the Stakes
Political
Paralysis in Iraq
Four months after Iraq's last
election, there's no government in sight -- and the fact that the
deadlock continues almost three weeks after Secretary of State Condi
Rice and her British counterpart Jack Straw flew to Baghdad to turn the
screws on Iraq's politicians shows how little influence they have over
the process. The United Iraq Alliance continues to maintain that
Ibrahim al Jaafari is its candidate for Prime Minister, even though the
Sunnis, the Kurds and the U.S. have made clear that he is unacceptable.
Even almost half of the Shiite alliance stands ready to pick an
alternative, although there's little reason to believe that any other
figure from the Alliance will evade the criticisms of Jaafari, which
concern sectarianism, militias and federalism. Despite criticism of his
high-handed style, the challenge to Jaafari is based on policy issues
rather than personality problems. No other leader from the Alliance is
likely to do much better from the perspective of the critics. Moreover,
the fact that the U.S. and Britain have come out openly favoring Abdul
Abdel-Mahdi of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq
(SCIRI) probably applies the kiss of death to his candidacy, although
the Sadrists, who back Jaafari, were never going to accept his
replacement by a candidate from their arch enemies in SCIRI. So, the
likelihood is that a compromise candidate of even less experience and
clout than Jaafari will fill the role if Jaafari's enemies manage to
dislodge him. "Whatever happens to Ibrahim Jafaari, it will not bring
political unity to Iraq," writes Anthony Cordesman. Even once the
four-month standoff over the government is resolved, a number of
further divisive issues immediately arise, from apportioning stakes in
what is already a deeply divided sectarian structure of governance, to
revisiting issues of federalism and militias. "Even when a new
government finally does emerge, it will at best be the start of a
bitter and divisive 'tipping year.' More realistically, it will take at
least several years to fully define any workable national political
compromise and the end result may well be a decade of occasional crises
and instability." In other words, any prospect of Iraq's political
process contributing to an early U.S. departure now seems to be
receding.
(Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 11, 2006)
Borzou Daragahi reports that
some of the exiled leaders previously favored by the U.S. but rejected
by the Iraqi electorate see the current deadlock as an opportunity to
resurrect themselves via an extra-legal putsch, in which an
alliance of likeminded leaders (many of them hangovers from the
U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council) would take over the reins of
power in an emergency government under the leadership of a figure like
former U.S.-appointed premier Iyad Allawi. Needless to say, the Shiites
are determined to prevent this, and their clerical leadership are
working anxiously to persuade the Shiite alliance to resolve the
Jaafari standoff.
(LA Times, April 16, 2006)
Sara Baxter reports that
the U.S. plans to inaugurate the new government, once installed, with a
massive offensive to retake Baghdad. It would be led by U.S. forces
and would involve the extensive use of air power against rebel
strongholds in the densely populated city. Three years after the fall
of Saddam, much of the capital remains in the hands of hostile
elements, and U.S. officials reportedly see such an offensive as the
only way a new government can assert its authority outside of the Green
Zone. The targets are likely to include Sunni insurgent strongholds,
but also those of Moqtada Sadr’d Mehdi army. The risk, as ever, is that
such an offensive can undo that which months of politicking has
stitched together. (The Times, April 17, 2006)
Graham Fuller suggests that the
Bush administration's turn away from an alliance with Iraq's Shiites
and back towards making common cause with the Sunnis is strategic error
that will sink the U.S. mission there. "By no means do all Shiites
want Jaafari as prime minister," writes Fuller. "But the United States
in their view has delivered a fairly naked diktat by telling the
Shiites who should or should not run their ostensibly sovereign
government. U.S. pressure on the Shiites to give up control of such
vital power ministries as Intelligence and Interior are certain non-
starters; the Shiites have not waited for half a century to get power
only to yield these vital security functions to their erstwhile
oppressors and current rivals. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani will work
mightily to ensure the Shiites do not break ranks on these issues.
"It may be that the Shiite alliance will switch candidates
for prime minister, if only in the name of preserving unity. But any
new candidate, in an agreement likely to be forged by Sistani, must
also placate the many Shiite elements cool or hostile to the United
States - including Jaafari, Sadr and the pro-Iranian Supreme Council
for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.
"It may make some sense for the United States to help
overcome Sunni fears and grievances by siding with their calls for more
Sunni power. But the current Shiite political dominance is quite legal,
based on a constitution the United States helped draft. It reflects the
absolute demographic majority of Shiites...
"Even if Washington at this point tilts toward the Sunnis,
they would offer precious little consolation for Bush's woes... The
Sunnis are even more anti- U.S. and more pan-Arab than the Shiites.
They are determined to end the occupation as soon as possible. The
Sunni clerics are hard- line anti-U.S., and their only serious rivals
are secular Baathists. Placating the Sunnis now will thus do little
more than hasten a public Shiite break with Washington. It will not
lessen insurgent actions to push the United States out."
(International Herald Tribune, April 14, 2006)
Although it is currently holding together under sectarian
pressure from without and at the insistence of Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani, Amir Taheri suggests the
breakup of the Shiite alliance would be good for Iraqi democracy.
That's because Iraq's politicians are dividied on four separate sets of
issues, and on each, the breakdown is different.
--On federalism, the Sadrists and Jaafari line up with the Sunnis,
while the SCIRI and Kurds are in the same camp.
--On economic policy, the Sadrists and Jaafari as well as the
neo-Baathist Sunnis and the Kurdish faction of President Talabani are
more inclined to a social democratic model with greater state
involvement, whereas SCIRI and the Barzani faction of the Kurds as well
as some of the secularists are more inclined towards free enterprise
--On mosque-state relations, the secularists led by Iyad Allawi would
find support among the Kurds and the Baathists, while among the
Shiites, he says, SCIRI actually favors more clerical involvement than
does Jaafari and the Sadrists
--SCIRI would be more inclined to emphasize Iraqi identity, whereas the
Sadrists and Jaafari would, like the Sunis, tend to emphasize Iraq's
Arab identity.
(Asharq al-Awsat, April 12, 2006)
Previously on Iraq:
--
The Magnitude of Failure in Iraq
--
A Generational American War?
--
What's Left of Iraq?
-- Civil
War and the Region
-- Is
Sadr the
Key to Avoiding Civil War?
-- Mounting
Anger at Coalition Forces in Iraq
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The Poor Man's Air Force
Mike Davis provides a fascinating history of the car-bomb and its
evolution as a weapon in contemporary conflict, from its roots among
anarchists in New York through its uses by both sides in
Israel-Palestine in the mid 1940s, through internecine Mafia wars in
Sicily in the early 1960s via Algeria, to more contemporary
incarnations in Beirut, Ireland and Sri Lanka. Davis explores the
emergence of the technology that levels the playing field in
destructive power between conventional armies and terror outfits.
Summarizing their advantages, he notes the following:
"First, vehicle bombs are stealth weapons of surprising
power and destructive efficiency. Trucks, vans, or even SUVs can easily
transport the equivalent of several conventional 1,000-pound bombs to
the doorstep of a prime target. Moreover, their destructive power is
still evolving, thanks to the constant tinkering of ingenious
bomb-makers. We have yet to face the full horror of semi-trailer-sized
explosions with a lethal blast range of 200 yards or of dirty bombs
sheathed in enough nuclear waste to render mid-Manhattan radioactive
for generations.
"Second, they are extraordinarily cheap: 40 or 50 people
can be massacred with a stolen car and maybe $400 of fertilizer and
bootlegged electronics. Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 attack
on the World Trade Center, bragged that his most expensive outlay was
in long-distance phone calls. The explosive itself (one half ton of
urea) cost $3,615 plus the $59 per day rental for a ten-foot-long Ryder
van. In contrast, the cruise missiles that have become the classic
American riposte to overseas terrorist attacks cost $1.1 million each.
"Third, car bombings are operationally simple to
organize. Although some still refuse to believe that Timothy McVeigh
and Terry Nichols didn't have secret assistance from a government or
dark entity, two men in the proverbial phone booth -- a security-guard
and a farmer -- successfully planned and executed the horrendous
Oklahoma City bombing with instructional books and information acquired
from the gun-show circuit.
"Fourth, like even the 'smartest' of aerial bombs, car
bombs are inherently indiscriminate: "Collateral damage" is virtually
inevitable. If the logic of an attack is to slaughter innocents and sow
panic in the widest circle, to operate a "strategy of tension," or just
demoralize a society, car bombs are ideal. But they are equally
effective at destroying the moral credibility of a cause and alienating
its mass base of support, as both the IRA and the ETA in Spain have
independently discovered. The car bomb is an inherently fascist weapon.
"Fifth, car bombs are highly anonymous and leave minimal
forensic evidence. Buda quietly went home to Italy, leaving William
Burns, J. Edgar Hoover, and the Bureau of Investigation (later, to be
renamed the FBI) to make fools of themselves as they chased one false
lead after another for a decade. Most of Buda's descendants have also
escaped identification and arrest. Anonymity, in addition, greatly
recommends car bombs to those who like to disguise their handiwork,
including the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, the Syrian GSD, the Iranian
Pasdaran, and the Pakistani ISI -- all of whom have caused unspeakable
carnage with such devices.
In his followup piece, he
examines the politics of some of the groups using car bombs and how the
weapon interacts with those. He also notes that car bombing and
IEDs in Iraq have forced an occupation authority to retreat into the
tiny quadrant of the capital known at "The Green Zone." (TomDispatch,
April , 2006)

Beirut Takes a Time Out From the 'Clash of
Cultures'
In the not too distant past, the observation that Beirut "has a lot of
secret stuff going on" would have referred to clandestine political and
military operations of radical factions, espionage duels, kidnappings
and the plotting of a bloody civil war. Today, it's the raison d'etre
offered by the publishers of Time Out Beirut, the local edition of the
London-based magazine franchise that showcase hedonistic delights of
all the world's great metropolises for a weekly readership. The idea
that Beirut will have its own edition, starting as a monthly, may be
the surest sign that the city has put the scars of civil war behind it,
and epitomizes a new optimism in the wake of the Syrian withdrawal. And
it also blows something of a raspberry in the direction of those who
insist that we're in the throes of a clash of cultures.
(Daily Star, April 7, 2006)

Hamas's cabinet is sworn in
Should the West Engage With Radical Islamists?
Mark Perry and Alastair Crooke are former Western intelligence
officials who have, along with a number of their colleagues, been holding
talks with officials from Hamas, Hezbollah and Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood. These officials, who worked at the highest levels of
British and U.S. intelligence, have recognized that the political
momentum in the Arab world is with the Islamists, but in the course of
their discussions they have recognized a profoundly important
distinction between the interests and agendas of nationally-based
groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and the transnational jihadists of
al-Qaeda. (Indeed, the same distinction was clearly on view recently
when
Hamas firmly rejected Al Qaeda's demand that it fight on and reject
compromise -- the premise of the brusque rebuff by Prime Minister
Ismail Haniya was that the Palestinians don't need Al-Qaeda's advice.
Crooke and Perry believe that the West is making a tragic mistake if it
continues to conflate these two groups, rather than recognizing the
considerable basis for dialogue and even common interests (particularly
in democracy) with some of the nationally-based Islamist groups. They
sought to brief the U.S. government on their discussions but were
rebuffed, on the grounds that such a briefing would be seen to be
legitimizing talks with terrorists. They write:
"The question of legitimacy is important because for
democracies, legitimacy is not conferred, but earned at the ballot box.
Hamas and Hezbollah would welcome a dialogue with the West not because
it would confer 'legitimacy' - they already have that - but because
such a dialogue would acknowledge the differences between Islamist
movements that represent actual constituencies from those (such as
al-Qaeda and its allied movements) that represent no one....
"There is no question that two of the groups with whom
we spoke - Hamas and Hezbollah - have adopted violent tactics to
forward their political goals. They are not alone: Fatah (whose
candidates for election the US supported with US$2 million in campaign
funds) continues to use violence (and kidnap Westerners), so do the
Tamil Tigers, so did the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the African
National Congress. So too does the United States. America's insistence
that Hamas and Hezbollah 'renounce violence' and 'disarm' is dismissed
by these groups as not only an invitation to surrender but, in light of
the continuing and increasingly indefensible use of alarmingly
disproportionate US and British firepower in Iraq, the rankest
hypocrisy.
"The West's seeming abhorrence of violence is derived
from its deeply rooted belief that political change is possible without
it. But defending this proposition requires an extraordinary exercise
in historical amnesia....
"The leaders of major Islamist organizations view the
issue of violence in the same way Americans do - as a legitimate option
that is applied to establish deterrence and stability and to defend and
promote their interests. For Hamas and Hezbollah, 'armed resistance' is
a way of balancing the asymmetry of force available to Israel. Both
groups place their use of violence in a political context.
" 'Armed resistance is not simply a tool that we use to
respond to Israeli aggression,' a Hamas leader averred. 'It gives our
people confidence that they are being defended, that they have an
identity, that someone is trying to balance the scales.
"Hezbollah puts this idea in the same political context:
'It may be that some day we will have to sit down across from our
enemies and talk to them about a political settlement. That could
happen,' reflected Nawaf Mousawi, the chief of the Hezbollah's foreign
relations department. 'But no political agreement will be possible
until they respect us. I want them to know that when they're sitting
there across from us that if they decide to get up and walk away,
they'll have to pay a price.'
"The West's insistence that opening a political dialogue
be preceded by and conditioned on disarmament is simply unrealistic: it
suggests that we believe that 'our' violence is benevolent while
'theirs' is unreasoning and random - that a 19-year-old rifle-toting
American in Fallujah is somehow less dangerous than a 19-year-old
Shi'ite in southern Lebanon.
"In fact, political agreements have rarely been preceded
by disarmament. United Nations demands for the disarmament of the South
West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) in 1978 unraveled a
conflict-ending political agreement (a situation put right when the
rebels were allowed to keep their weapons), and Northern Ireland's
'Good Friday Agreement' allowed the IRA to keep its weapons until a
political process (leading to 'decommissioning') reflecting their
concerns was put in place.
"The West often views Islamic violence as random and
unreasoning, but Hamas and Hezbollah believe that violence can shift
practical political considerations to create a psychology in which
armed groups can use the tool of de-escalation as a way of forwarding a
political process. That is to say, absent a political agreement, Hamas
and Hezbollah will not voluntarily abandon what they view as their only
defense against the overwhelming weight of Israeli military power.
"Disarmament (or 'demilitarization') is possible: it
worked in Northern Ireland and South Africa. When coupled with
substantive political talks, the unification of armed elements into a
single security or military force - demilitarization - provides the
best hope for increased stability and security in Lebanon, the West
Bank and Gaza."
(Asia Times, March 30, 2006)

Abdul Rahman states his faith, posing a problem for both
Karzai and Bush
Kabul Christian Convert Puts Afghanistan's Karzai
in a Bind
Under pressure from his patron, the U.S. government, Afghanistan's
President Hamid Karzai intervened personally to secure the release of
Abdul Rahman, a 41-year-old convert to Christianity who faced a
potential death sentence under Sharia law for apostasy. And,
predictably,
thousands took to the streets to protest and demand that he be put to
death. The case highlights not only a
contradiction in Afghanistan's constitution between its endorsement
of international human rights conventions guaranteeing freedom of
worship, and its codifying of Sharia law, but also a political tension
that exposes the limits of Karzai's own authority -- and a domestic
problem for his U.S. backers.
Karzai's power remains limited, and entirely dependent
on a combination of U.S. and NATO forces, and the consent of various
warlords -- some of them radical Islamists -- who have been drawn into
government. For the Bush administration, the persecution by a
U.S.-backed regime of a Christian for having chosen the same faith as
the President of the United States is untenable: Washington was pressed
to demand Abdul Rahman's release by a clamor of protest from the
Evangelical activist base of the Republican Party. But for Karzai,
caving in to the U.S. on a matter of faith and identity is a risk
option. And the case has inflamed the passions of religious activists
on both sides, and the
Taliban is using it as a rallying point to build a coalition against
Karzai. Nor is it over, for Abdul Rahman's release was engineered
on the grounds of evidentiary technicalities and insinuations about his
sanity, rather than any question over the legitimacy of the law that
makes it possible to charge him for converting from Islam to another
faith. The fact that Abdul Rahman has reportedly applied for asylum in
a third country underscores the problem. The Bush administration likes
to point to Afghanistan as a
poster child for its promotion of democracy abroad; the Abdul Rahman
case will have alerted Americans at home to the limits of the freedom
that is being defended in Afghanistan.
(TIME, March 26, 2006)
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