Ahmad Faruqui: on the political storm front in Saudi Arabia Dan Smith: on getting it right in Iraq Ralph A. Cossa: on the 6-party talks trying to resolve North Korea's nuclear weapons program Catherine Cook: on Israel's wall and the international court Robert Sutter: on the chances that Congress will bail out Taiwan

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U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

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Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, President of Iraq's Governing Council prepares to sign

GENUINE BREAKTHROUGH, OR DOOMED COMPROMISE?
Most of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran, applauded Iraq's new transitional "Basic Law" because it is likely to speed an American exit from Iraq, thus clearing the decks for the struggle that will determine who actually gets to control the country. There is a general acknowledgement that the Bush administration is desperate to pull out before the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, and there is little regional interest in seeing the U.S. stay longer. The wording of the Basic Law, however, leaves some doubts about how successful it will be in actually providing a bridge to Iraq's future. The fatal flaw is paragraph C of Article 61, which lets any three provinces block the Constitution if two thirds of their population oppose it. The provision gives both Sunnis and the Kurds veto power over the Shiites who are in the clear majority and are reluctant to relinquish their advantage. If Iraq does degenerate into civil war, the Shiites can very likely count on aid from their larger Shiite neighbor, Iran, which fully supports a hasty American withdrawal.
• Full text of the transitional Basic Law (Coalition Provisional Authority, March 8, 2004)
•A quick analysis by Juan Cole (University of Michigan)
•Discussion with Juan Cole and Feisal Istrabadi, an advisor to Adnan Pachachi, a member of the Governing Council.
•Regional Reactions to the signing are generally positive (Al Jazeera)
•Doubts remain in Iraq (Institute for War, Peace Reporting)

CHALABI CLAIMS THAT WILDLY MISLEADING INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS WERE NOT HIS FAULT.
After calling CBS' 60 Minutes with a plea to set the record straight, Iraqi National congress Leader Ahmed Chalabi admits to having introduced some pretty questionable sources to the CIA, but he adds that he is pretty sure that U.S. intelligence agencies had to know that they were being misled. (Ahmed Chalabi, 60 Minutes, March 7, 2004)

Hizbollah Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah

ISRAELIS CONCERNED THAT HIZBOLLAH MAY STEP UP ITS ATTEMPTS TO PENETRATE PALESTINIAN CELLS
Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's appointment of Imad Mughnieh as his new deputy of operations may signal a new effort to penetrate cells within the Palestinian movement in Israel. (Amit Cohen, Maariv, March 8, 2004)

RUSSIANS AND CHINESE REPLACE AMERICANS IN SAUDI NATURAL GAS DEAL
Normally, the Saudis would have looked to American companies to develop their vast natural gas reserves, but that was before relations soured with Washington and the value of the U.S. dollar went into a tailspin. The Saudis want to use the gas for domestic energy needs so that they can continue to reserve diminishing oil exports for the international market. (Simon Romero, New York Times, March 8, 2004)
•NY Times Jeff Gerth on dwindling Saudi oil reserves (Feb. 24, 2004)
•Royal Dutch Shell Executives hid dwindling reserves from investors for two years (Stephen Laboton and Jeff Gerth, NY Times, March 9, 2004)

CHINA DISCOVERS IT NEEDS SAUDI OIL
China replaced Japan last year as the world's second largest petroleum user, surpassed only by the United States. By 2010, China will have 90 times as many cars on the road as it did in 1990, and by 2030, it is likely to have more than the U.S. The surge in demand for gasoline will hit just as China's own oil reserves are rapidly dwindling. Gal Luft and Anne Korin analyze the implications in the current issue of Commentary. (Gal Luft, Anne Korin, Commentary, March 2004).

GETTING IT RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The Nixon Center's Zeyno Baran, writing in In The National Interest, notes that it was a bit patronizing for the Bush administration to undertake the complete transformation of the Middle East without first consulting some of the people who actually live in the region. The Democrats might have been able to pick apart the strategy, if their strategists had not been involved in developing a bipartisan vision. Zeyno Baran, In The National Interest, March 2004.
•British may help Israelis pull out from Gaza
Al Jazeera reports that discussions are underway to get Britain to provide military advisors to help ease the transition when Israeli troops finally pull out of Gaza. (Al Jazeera, March 8, 2004)

HAITI: NOW THAT U.S. MARINES CONTROL THE STREETS, IT'S TIME TO STOP THE CRIMINALS FROM REGAINING POWER
Amnesty International wants to make sure that the multinational force that restores calm in Haiti does not neglect to arrest several guerrilla leaders previously accused of crimes against humanity. •who they are (Amnesty Intl. March 2004)

ARISTIDE'S LAMENT
The ex-president may have been a terrible leader, but the way he was forced out reminds some observers of the dark days of the past. Amy Willentz comments in the Nation (March 8, 2004).

YET ANOTHER DANGEROUS MUDDLE
Haiti's collapse after the last U.S. intervention in 1994 followed fast on the heels of a decision by a Republican congress to cut the guts out of the funds for reconstruction. But Haiti also seems to be part of a general trend in U.S. policy that has been demonstrated in Afghanistan and former Yugoslavia. The end result is alliances with thugs and heavy casualties among the civilian population. Conn Hallinan comments in Foreign Policy in Focus (March 1, 2004)

AS IF HAITI ISN'T TROUBLE ENOUGH, THE WHITE HOUSE ALSO HAS TO WORRY ABOUT CUBA
William Finnegan notes in this week's New Yorker that Florida's 800,000-strong Cuban community is angry at the the Bush administration's draconian policy on incoming refugees and what is generally perceived as its soft approach to Castro. "George Bush has become a rat," goes a local Salsa song in Spanish,"Oh how the Republican treason hurts..." Result: Karl Rove sees Florida as "Ground Zero 2004." (William Finnegan in the New Yorker, March 8, 2004)

RUSSIA'S VLADIMIR PUTIN AND GEORGE BUSH BOTH FACE ELECTIONS THIS YEAR
While George Bush must fight for every vote, Putin's reelection next Sunday, is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Nevertheless, both men share a battle to establish personal credibility--Bush among the electorate as a whole and Putin among Moscow's political elite. An irony is that Putin needs to find a convincing opponent to make his election look like the real thing. Yevgeny Verlin comments in the Center for Defense Information. (March 8, 2004)

THE DARK SIDE OF RUSSIAN INTEGRATION
Oleksandr Sushko, writing in the Spring issue of the Washington Quarterly, notes that Russia is reasserting control over its former satellite republics by controlling essential commodities such as food, fuel and electricity. Moscow still calls the shots, but it doesn't have to pick up the expenses of actually being in control. Oleksandr Sushko, Washington Quarterly, March 1, 2004)
•Washington Quarterly Table of Contents on line

Is Russia Sliding into Dictatorship?
Alexei Pankin, editor of Sreda, isn't sure, but one thing he does know: his staff just wants to get on with it."( Alexei Pankin, Moscow Times, March 8, 2004)

THE DEBATE OVER HOWARD STERN
On the surface, radio shock-jock Howard Stern's claim to be a defender of free speech brings back memories of Hustler publisher Larry Flynt's court cases arguing that the First Amendment was intended to include protection of pornography as well as political dialogue. Yet the flap over Stern being banned from the airwaves by Clear Channel Communications raises some serious questions about the politics of media concentration which began under Ronald Reagan. Clear Channel controls 1,200 radio stations across America. It had no objections to Stern's borderline sexual innuendo on the air until Stern announced that he had turned against George Bush. Within a few days of Stern's remarks, he was off the air. The flap that followed, much of it inflamed by Stern himself, shined a spotlight on Texas-based Clear Channel's political connections.
•Report by Eric Boehlert in Salon
•Katrina vanden Heuvel in the Nation on Clear Channel versus the First Amendment.
•Take Back the Media on Clear Channel
•Public Citizen on the role of the Rangers and Pioneers in raising campaign funds

Homeland Security-the TV series

FICTIONALIZING HOMELAND SECURITY
The Department of Homeland Security's most headline grabbing achievement to date has been its advice on how to use duct tape. What better way of keeping the organization alive than an action TV series that generates and defeats its own villains every week. The series slogan is:"How do we know that we are truly safe?" The show's trailer, available on line, has President Bush intoning: "These deliberate and deadly attacks were more than acts of terror. They were acts of war..." Bush and other administration officials have cameo parts, and the series is receiving help from a White House office set up in Hollywood to communicate more directly with the motion picture industry. The effort enhances Bush's strongest campaign card. According to the latest polls 57% of the public now distrusts Bush's foreign policy, but roughly 60% still approve War on Terror.
• The DHS TV Show website and trailer.
• Jeffrey Jolson-Colburn analyzes the series in E online!
•Bill Sardi comments on Lew Rockwell.com
•WNYC's "On the Media" interviews the shows producer and star
•Latest poll shows decline in support for Bush foreign policy, but continued support for War on Terror.

White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales

WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL ALBERTO GONZALES ON DENYING DUE PROCESS
Addressing the National Bar Association on February 24, the President's attorney argues that the old rules of due process and 'innocent until proven guilty' don't necessarily apply in time of war, and as far as the administration is concerned we are at war for the indefinite future. Gonzales acknowledges that there may be some hesitation at suspending Constitutional guarantees such as due process of law for US citizens who are suspected of being enemy combatants. Some of these well-meaning critics, Gonzales says, "demand that our judges – even though untrained in executing war plans – have a substantive role in the war decisions of the Commander-in-Chief."
Gonzales clearly feels otherwise. "To suggest that an al Qaeda member must be tried in a civilian court because he happens to be an American citizen – or to suggest that hundreds of individuals captured in battle in Afghanistan should be extradited, given lawyers, and tried in civilian courts," he argues, "is to apply the wrong legal paradigm. The law applicable in this context is the law of war – those conventions and customs that govern armed conflicts. Under these rules, captured enemy combatants, whether soldiers or saboteurs, may be detained for the duration of hostilities."
•Read the text of Gonzales' speech in pdf format

The Security Policy Working Group