Ahmad Faruqui: on the chances for success of the recent tentative steps towards rapprochement between India and Pakistan William D. Hartung: on the high cost of the bad advice from Richard Perle Ehsan Ahrari: on mixing reform and regime change in Saudi Arabia

New York University

U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

Need information, but having trouble with a broken link? Send an e-mail to wtd2@nyu.edu
or click here
We may be able to help

For quick access to the Global Beat, set your bookmark to:
http://globalbeat.org

HAITI AT THE BRINK

An opposition fighter enters Cap Haitien

PORT-AU- PRINCE BRACES FOR THE END
A disparate force of several hundred guerrilla fighters may be all that it takes to overthrow President Aristide's nearly nonexistent government. The U.S. is limiting itself to protection of the U.S. embassy grounds with 50 Marines and has proposed a power-sharing agreement, but since it is clear that the U.S. does not intend to get seriously involved this time around, there is little to keep the rebels from going for the full prize. The troubling issue is how these groups that have little in common will decide to divide the remains among themselves.
•Port-au-Prince waits for the end. (BBC)
•The Rebels represent several different groups, many of them violent. They include the "cannibals." (BBC)
•The Miami Herald warns against closing the door on refugees
•Haiti News Port (in French)
•HAITI EN MARCH (in French)
•U.S. State Department Briefing

last weekend's lethal attack on an Israeli bus may signal growing Hamas influence inside the PLO

HAMAS BEGINS TO OPERATE THROUGH THE PLO'S MILITARY WING
The suicide bomb which blew up an Israeli bus last Sunday was carried by a Palestinian policeman who belonged to the PLO Al Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, but the explosive belt the policeman was carrying was produced by Hamas, which is mounting an increasingly sophisticated campaign. The sympathy which the attack might have gained for Israel has been neutralized to a certain extent by opposition in Europe and elsewhere to Israel's security barrier, which is currently being discussed at the Hague. Ze'ev Schiff, writing in Haaretz, analyzes the situation. (Ze'ev Schiff in Haaretz, February 23, 2004)

BARRIER OR SPRINGBOARD FOR TERRORISM?
Israel's security working is working to a certain degree. According to Israeli intelligence, only 5 suicide bombers crossed the fence last year. Most attacks are coming from areas not yet covered by the fence. But in Jerusalem, there are concerns that the fence may actually increase the danger by sealing off 180,000 Palestinians on the Israeli side while subjecting them to increasingly harsh conditions. Moreover, the fence, which will cost around $3 billion, is siphoning off funds that might have been used for the kind of economic development that could have removed much of the incentive to engage in terrorism. (Amos Harel reports in Haaretz, Feb. 23, 2004)

LESSONS LEARNED IN IRAQ: Understanding Asymmetric Warfare
In a new 45-page study, Anthony Cordesman analyzes what we've learned so far from the experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and the War on Terror. Cordesman's central thesis is that each problem has to be dealt with according to the demands of the situation on the ground, rather than trying to base a strategy on ideological preconceptions or tailoring a response according to assets on hand. The War on Terrorism, Cordesman notes, will depend to a great extent on local partnerships with key countries like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. (Anthony Cordesman, CSIS, February 2004-in Adobe Acrobat pdf format)
•Brookings Iraq Index--a regularly updated month-by-month listing of troop strength, casualties and security indicators in Iraq.
•President of Iraq's Ruling Council opens possibility of reasserting Saddam's claims over territory in Kuwait and Jordan(Al Jazeera, Feb. 23, 2004)
•Rumsfeld airborne briefing en route to Kuwait
•Pentagon opens criminal investigation against Halliburton over allegedly inflated fuel prices
Halliburton was charging $2.64 a gallon--double the price of other contractors. At least two Halliburton employees have already been fired for taking kickbacks adding up to $6 million from Kuwaiti officials(BBC, Feb. 24, 2003).
•Mercenaries flooding into Iraq to work at security jobs(AFP via Arab News, February 23, 2004)

Ayman Al-Zawahri

NEW AL QAEDA ATTACKS THREATENED
In a rambling, less than coherent speech broadcast by Al Jazeera, Ayman Al-Zawahri, a top aide to Osama bin Laden, threatened new attacks by "death brigades" against George Bush, New York and Washington. Al-Zawahri's principal concern seemed to be to counter U.S. claims that up to 2/3rds of Al Qaeda's leadership had been eliminated. The speech lumps Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and Guantanamo together as part of what Al-Zawahri calls an anti-Islamic crusade. (Al Jazeera, February 24, 2004).

PUTIN FIRES CABINET
Vladimir Putin's surprise announcement on television that he was firing his entire cabinet comes just three weeks before Russia's presidential elections. The speculation is that Putin wanted to clear the decks by ridding himself of his prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, the last major holdout from the Yeltsin era. (BBC, February 24, 2004)
•Putin's challenge in the upcoming elections (Andrei Piontkovsky, Strategic Studies Center, Moscow, February 11, 2004)

RUSSIA'S GAS PROBLEMS
A fourth of the natural gas going to Western Europe comes from the Russian conglomerate Gazprom. When Belaruss began siphoning gas from pipelines passing through its territory, the Russians cut off the supply leaving Belarus' population to freeze in weather that was 20 degrees below zero. The gas is back on now, but deeper issues such as Moscow's desire to accelerate merger plans with Belarus remain. (Valerie Korchagina, Moscow Times, February 20, 2004)
•Background to the affair (Moscow Times, Feb. 19, 2004)
•Russia Resumes gas supplies (Russia Journal, Feb. 24, 2004)

RUSSIA'S NEW STEALTH MISSILE
In recent missile tests, Russia claims to have developed a warhead that will penetrate any ballistic missile defense.
(Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 19, 2004)
•What it means (Viktor Litovkin, Novosti via the Center for Defense Information, February 13, 2004)

Parliamentary debate

IRAN: FROM ISLAMIC REPUBLIC TO ISLAMIC MONARCHY?
Iran's elections had little to do with the popular vote after the popular opposition was eliminated from the ballot. The general consensus was that failing to win the public's hearts and minds, the country's ruling conservative theocracy had opted to return to the easier to manage tradition of empowering despots. In place of an powerful Shah, Iran now gets an all-powerful ayatollah in the form of a "Supreme Guide." Jokes in Teheran now refer to "Shah Khamenei." Elaine Sciolino sketches out the background in the International Herald Tribune (IHT, Feb. 16, 2004)

REVISITING THE LIBYAN NUCLEAR THREAT
The Federation of American Scientists carries the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA-February 20, 2004)

THE CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE LOOKS AT PYONGYANG'S NUCLEAR OPTIONS
The North Koreans are trying to convince the West that they are a credible nuclear threat. They could have a half-dozen nuclear warheads by now, but there is no way of knowing (CRS, February 2004-pdf file)

CONCERN OVER ADMINISTRATION'S ALLEGED DISTORTION OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
More than 60 leading scientists--including a number of Nobel prize winners--complained that the administration has been systematically suppressing or distorting scientific information for ideological or political reasons as well as stacking key panels and research groups with . At stake, they say, is the integrity of research in the U.S. James Glanz reports in the New York Times (February 19, 2004)
• Declaration by the Union of Concerned Scientists

Farewell Comanche

IT SEEMED LIKE A GOOD IDEA--BUT A COSTLY ONE
The U.S. Army's experimental Comanche helicopter cost $8 billion to develop over 20 years. The project took so long, that the helicopter was deemed no longer relevant by the time it was ready to go into the next stage of production. Completing the program would have cost $38 billion or more. The Comanche was too heavy, and lacked the range of the Apache which is already in wide-spread use.Dropping the Comanche will allow the Pentagon to buy hundreds of new aircraft at a fraction of the cost. Aerospace Daily provides details (Aerospace Daily, Feb. 24, 2004)

HOLLOWING OUT THE ARMY
In the current issue of the Atlantic Monthly, James Fallows argues that years of cuts in defense spending combined with the pressure of fighting a burgeoning guerrilla war in Iraq has placed unsustainable demands on U.S. fighting forces. Everyone is either in Iraq, returning from Iraq or getting ready to leave for Iraq. (James Fallows, The Atlantic, March 2004)

The Security Policy Working Group