Winslow Wheeler: on the senate's "Week of shame" Mikhail Pogorely: on what Russia expectes to get from Iraq John Feffer: on Why George Bush's time out in North Korea isn't working. Colin Rowat: on Iraq; I wonder what happens to Dina Conn Hallinan: on sowing a nuclear wind in North Korea Stephen E. Gottlieb: on the holes in President Bush's State of the union address Damien LaVera: on de-nuking North Korea Ahmed Faurqui: on the sense of despair in the Middle East THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Why We Are Hated,Nuclear Bunker busters AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

New York University

ANTI-AMERICANISM IS BACK IN STYLE
Boston University professors Margaret and Melvin DeFleur have updated their study of attitudes about America in different countries of the world. Click here to see the an interactive guide.

Click here for the full report as a pdf file

David Isenberg's critique of Homeland Security and recommendations for improvements
[click on image to go to the executive summary]

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

THE BATTLE PLAN FOR IRAQ? THINK HIROSHIMA
The strategy is nicknamed "Shock and Awe." The idea stems from early work done by an academic military strategist, Harlan Ullman. Ullman advocates opening the attack with enough force to traumatize the other side into rapid submission. The concept calls for using conventional weapons to create an effect similar to the shock value of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The drawback is that to work, the attack must have a shattering psychological impact on an entire society—not just the military leadership. What Ullman does not discuss is the post-traumatic effect that that kind of violence is likely to have on an unstable region, and how it is likely to shape attitudes towards the United States in the future. It has taken more than 50 years to recover from the horror of the first use of atomic bombs, and even now the scars are not completely healed.
Read Ira Chernus’ less than flattering appraisal of Ullman’s ideas (CommonDreams.org)
Read Harlan Ullman’s SHOCK AND AWE:ACHIEVING RAPID DOMINANCE (co-authored with James P.Wade), published by the National Defense University, December 1996.

A CONFIDENTIAL INTERNAL U.N. DRAFT MEMORANDUM EXPLORES THE HUMANITARIAN SCENARIOS FOLLOWING A U.S. INVASION
The prediction is a devastating attack that results in humanitarian catastrophes likely to leave lasting wounds on the Middle East, and an enduring bitterness towards the United States.
Read Megha Bahree’s report on the contents of an early draft of a memorandum circulating internally in the U.N. about coping with the day after Armageddon(Barwee is a graduate student in Middle East Journalism at New York University)
Read a transcript of the memorandum in html (the document was obtained and put on the net by UK-based CASI—the Committee Against Sanctions on Iraq)
Read the original document in Adobe Acrobat Pdf format

OSAMA BIN LADEN ON TAPE?
Colin Powell told the Senate Budget Committee that he had read the latest broadcast from Osama Bin Laden on Tuesday morning, hours before it was aired on the Arab TV network, al Jazeera. Powell argued that the tape, which seems to match Osama's style, is proof that the elusive terrorist is still dangerous, and even more so because of Iraq's efforts to develop dangerous weapons. As Powell puts it,"... we see these non-state actors, terrorist organizations -- Al-Qaida, bin Laden, others -- terrorists that are trying to develop weapons of mass

destruction, seek weapons of mass destruction.
This morning, it was brought home to me once again when I read the transcript of what bin Laden, or who we believe to be bin Laden, will be saying on Al-Jazeera during the course of the day -- and you'll be seeing this as the day unfolds -- where once again he speaks to the people of Iraq and talks about their struggle and how he is in partnership with Iraq. This nexus between terrorists and states that are developing weapons of mass destruction can no longer be looked away from and ignored. As the President has said, 9/11 changed things."
Osama, in fact, said:"All those who co-operate with the Americans against Iraq are hostile to Islam. The United States is seeking, by occupying Iraq, to achieve the Zionist dream of establishing a Greater Israel." While Powell took the words as proof of collusion with Iraq, others were not so sure.
Read account in the BBC, Feb. 11, 2003
Colin Powell's address to the Senate Budget Committee
Account in the New York Times

THE ADMINISTRATION IS GETTING READY TO ASK FOR DRAMATICALLY ENHANCED POLICE POWERS IN A CONFIDENTIAL SEQUEL TO THE PATRIOT ACT
The new law as described in a confidential memo, marked "not for distribution," will significantly reduce judicial protections for American citizens when it comes to government wire taps and surveillance. In a marked change from current laws, it will also authorize the president to engage in espionage against American citizens despite the fact that Congress has not made a formal declaration of war. The administration plan will also authorize the Justice Department to treat suspects as terrorists—even when they have no visible connection to an international terrorist movement. The Center for Public Integrity’s Charles Lewis and Adam Mayle discuss the climate in which the draft memorandum is circulating, and they provide a photocopy in pdf format of the original 120-page confidential document (this is downloadable as one file, or in separate segments from the CPI website).
(Charles Lewis & Adam Mayle, The Center for Public Integrity, Feb. 7, 2003)

FRANCE AND BELGIUM USE THEIR VETO
Anyone who thinks France is going to give in graciously to U.S. war fever over Iraq needs a fast rethink. The French veto for upgraded NATO assistance to Turkey constitutes a diplomatic shot across the bow. Belgium’s support is not inconsequential. Brussels may not have much impact when it comes to geostrategy, but it houses NATO’s headquarters and it is where the ambassadors assigned to NATO have to live. Now that the French have shown that they are not afraid of angering Washington, the crucial question is whether Paris is ready to go all the way and veto further U.N. support on the Security Council.
Read the basic story in the Guardian, Feb. 10, 2003
Read Washington’s reaction in the Independent, Feb. 10, 2003
The New York Times on the background (Feb. 10, 2003)

Donald Rumsfeld reacts to NATO events at a press conference with the prime minister of Australia: "…the planning's going to go forward outside of NATO if necessary, the plan to see that Turkey's circumstance is at it should be. It's an important ally in NATO. It's a moderate Moslem state. And it seems to me that those three countries taking that position prevents NATO from fulfilling its obligation to a NATO ally. And I'm sure that they'll find -- NATO will find a way to do it eventually. "
(Donald Rumsfeld, Def. Dept. Feb. 10, 2003)
"Senior Official" background briefing in Munich, Feb. 8, 2003 (Defense Dept.)

WHOSE IDEA WAS IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
If the U.S. finds itself seduced into a war that much of the rest of the world does not really want, it will be thanks to a small group of dedicated conservative radicals who were on the fringes of the U.S. foreign policy establishment until the arrival of George Bush. The group’s messianic dream: force democracy on Iraq and bring peace to the Middle East by offering the region an example of the American dream. The Nation’s Jason Vest explored the roots of an audacious but potentially extremely dangerous vision.

FRANCE AND GERMANY PROPOSE A PEACEFUL ARMED OCCUPATION OF PARTS OF IRAQ
What if a European initiative could get Iraqis to accept occupying troops at weapons sites without combat? Washington doesn’t think that the idea will fly, but the fact that it is being suggested shows the lengths some people to go to head off allout war.
Mick Hume in Spiked (A British journo website), Feb. 10, 2003

IRAQ’S SHELL GAME
Play cat-and-mouse with the UN inspectors and stall long enough, and Washington may lose the momentum it needs to oust Saddam. Saddam has played the game successfully before, and these days it may be the only option he has left. In the confusion of day-to-day events it’s necessary to be very clear about Saddam’s ultimate objectives.
By anthony cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 31, 2003

IRAQ CUTS RUSSIA OUT OF OIL CONTRACT AGAIN
Just as it seemed that Moscow was going to be able to renew its contract to exploit the potentially lucrative Qrna oil fields in Iraq, Baghdad pulled the plug again—ostensibly as retaliation for Moscow’s insistence on stricter arms inspections.
Moscow Times, Feb. 11, 2003

SADDAM AND THE FIGHT OR FLIGHT OPTION
Anyone in Washington or the Middle East who is counting on Saddam opting for political asylum at the last moment should think again. Amatzia Barqam, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, explains why.
(Amatzia Salam, Brookings, Feb. 4, 2003)

RUMSFELD CONCERNED THAT U.S. FORCES ARE RESTRICTED FROM USING DISABLING GAS AND OTHER NON-LETHAL RIOT AGENTS IN IRAQ
"In some cases," says Rumsfeld,"our soldiers are authorized to kill people, but not to use non-lethal riot agents that might incapacitate them." Rumsfeld voiced his concerns to the House Armed Services Committee on February 7, and said that short of a presidential decision to the contrary, troops are bound by treaties not to use gas in combat situations. Rumsfeld says he has had great difficulty drafting "rules of engagement" for Iraq which will allow soldiers freedom of action. (Rumsfeld’s testimony is in audio, either MP3 format or AIFF).
(Recording made available via Sunshine Project, Feb. 7, 2003)

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AND DOMESTIC POLICE GETS FUZZIER
The U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court is now open for business, and in its first hearing, three justices listened, behind closed doors, to complaints from the Bush administration that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is hampering the president’s efforts to keep America safe from terrorism. Solicitor General Theodore B. Olson’s complaint: FISA separates the functions of foreign intelligence collection—the kind carried out by the CIA against foreigners -- from those of domestic police organizations such as the FBI that deal with American citizens at home. Olsen argues that the differences between the two types of activity are inconsequential. Proponents of due process are not convinced. (this is a transcript of the closed-door presentation, US Foreign Intelligence Court of Review, September 9, 2002).

NO PLACE TO HIDE
Hidden television cameras can theoretically track nearly anyone with automatically with new pattern recognition software which analyzes facial features—an efficient tool for police operations or totalitarian control. Do we really want to live in an Orwellian vision of the future? RAND analyzes the new technology which promises to turn the sci-fi novel 1984 into a reality, and also discusses the ethical considerations.
RAND, February 2003.

HOW LIBERAL IS THE MEDIA ?
Despite the complaints of conservative commentators, even the magazines and newspapers considered to be left of center are experiencing a tectonic shift. The Nation’s Eric Alterman points out that formerly liberal leaning publications ranging from the New York Times to the Washington Post, the new Republic, the New Yorker and even the Nation are peppered with right-leaning conservative pundits these days.
(Eric Alterman, The Nation, Feb. 6, 2003)

SUDAN: MORE FIGHTING IN NILE OIL FIELDS
After signing a ceasefire, the Sudanese government in Khartoum has renewed fighting in the Nile oil fields—this time relying heavily on militias which receive support from the regular army. The violations raise questions about just how committed Khartoum really is to ending the fighting.
(International Crisis Group, Feb. 10, 2003)

AN ELECTRIC CONFRONTATION IN TIBLISI
Georgia’s Constitutional Court decided last December that abnormally high electricity bills violate the constitutional rights of a GEORGIAN population that is distressingly mired in economic hardship. The decision seemed generous enough except that AES, the company that provides electric power, is American-owned. AES established itself in Georgia in 1998, and invested $300 million in Georgia’s grid. That seemed generous at the time, except that Georgians who had been paying $0.03 per kilowatt hour, soon found themselves being billed for more than double that. Since the average Georgian earns roughly $30 a month, the price hike has hurt. Now AES claims that the controversy centering on its rate hikes is really just a pretext for another local company to move in on its franchise.
(Nata Alapishvili in Tiblisi, the Institue for War & Peace Reporting, 6 February, 2003)

POETS AGAINST THE WAR
"Laura Bush sent poet Sam Hammil an innocent enough invitation to an evening at the White House on "Poetry and the American Voice."When I picked up my mail and saw the letter marked "The White House," I felt no joy," says Hammil. "Rather I was overcome by a kind of nausea...Only the day before I had read a lengthy report on George Bush's proposed "Shock and Awe" attack on Iraq, calling for saturation bombing that would be like the firebombing of Dresden or Tokyo, killing countless innocent civilians. Nor has Bush ruled out the use of nuclear weapons." Hammil decided to start an on-line protest: Poets against the war. As more poets signed on, Laura Bush canceled the White House evening. poetry, she insisted, should not be political.

THE ROAD BETTER NOT TAKEN
Jack Beatty writing in Atlantic Unbound, the on-line supplement to the Atlantic Magazine, notes that victory in Iraq may be the beginning of a dark odyssey.
Says Beatty: "The imminent U.S. attack on Iraq will be the first war in our history in which success is as fearful a prospect as failure. When we "win," our troubles will just begin. How we win will determine their gravity.
According to a recent CBS news report, the Pentagon plans to strike Bagdhad with 300 cruise missiles in early March, to be followed twenty-four-hours later by 300 more. American land forces will ring Bagdhad, holding it under siege while tank detachments probe into the city to engage Saddam's praetorian guard—this according to informed military analysts. We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons against the Iraqis should they attack our forces with chemical weapons, Andrew Card, the White House chief of staff, recently warned. The Pentagon says it might use nuclear weapons in any case, to blow up deep Iraqi bunkers. These leaks and statements may be a form of "psy-ops," calculated to foment a military coup to topple Saddam Hussein. If they do indicate how we will "win," however, then Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institute may be conservative in estimating that Gulf War II could inflict from several to twenty-five thousand Iraqi civilian casualties and from several hundred to five thousand U.S. casualties. "The nightmare scenario," retired General Joseph Hoar, the former commander in chief of U.S. Central Command, told a Senate committee in September, "is that six Iraqi Republican Guard divisions and six heavy divisions with several hundred artillery pieces defend the city of Bagdhad. The result would be high casualties on both sides as well as in the civilian community. U.S. forces would certainly prevail but at what cost ... as the rest of the world watches while we bomb and have artillery rounds go off in densely populated Iraqi neighborhoods?" A leaked UN contingency planning report predicted that as many as 500,000 Iraqi civilians could be injured or have their health impaired by city fighting..."

to read the rest of Beatty's essay, click here...

THE VILLAGE VOICE ADDS UP THE NUMBERS FOR THE COMING WAR
Number of precision-guided missiles and bombs that the United States plans to launch per hour at Baghdad during the war's first 48 hours: 63
Number of days it is expected to take for Baghdad residents to become "physically, emotionally, and psychologically exhausted": 2 to 5
Percentage of U.S. bombs and missiles dropped during the first Gulf War that were precision-guided: 9
Percentage of U.S. bombs and missiles ready to be dropped during the coming war that are precision-guided: 75
Number of U.S. satellite-guided bombs stockpiled in the Gulf region: 6700
Number of U.S. laser-guided bombs stockpiled in the Gulf region: 3000
Number of Americans killed during the first Gulf War: 148
Number of Iraqis and Americans who, doctors say, might die in the next war: 48,000 to 260,000
Number of additional deaths expected from the civil war within Iraq following an invasion: 20,000
Number of additional deaths expected from "post-war adverse health effects": 200,000
Number of total deaths if nuclear weapons are used: 3,900,000
Percentage of Americans who believe that oil best explains why the U.S. would use military force against Iraq: 22
Ranking of Iraq among countries with proven reserves of oil: 2
Number of barrels of oil in Iraq's proven reserves: 112,000,000,000
Year that U.S. oil companies were prohibited from investing in, or buying, Iraqi oil: 1991
Year that Dick Cheney, as head of oil field equipment manufacturer Halliburton, called for the end to sanctions against Iraq: 2000
Number of U.S. Army soldiers ready to decontaminate corpses and send them back home for burial: 700 ...
U.S. military spending, in billions of dollars per day: 1.08 ...
Date that the Nuclear Posture Review (signed by Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld), describing contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against China, Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya, and Syria, was delivered to Congress: January 8, 2002
By Ward Harkavy , The Village Voice, February 5-11, 2003.
To read full text click here

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