Colin Rowat: on the economics of making a democracy in Iraq Daryl Kimball: on the administration quietly stepping back from confrontation with North Korea Richard Kaufman: on missile defense, the trillion dollar white elephant Ahmed Faruqui: on the dangers of ignoring the still tense situation in Kashmir THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Why We Are Hated,Nuclear Bunker busters AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

New York University

ANTI-AMERICANISM IS BACK IN STYLE
Boston University professors Margaret and Melvin DeFleur have updated their study of attitudes about America in different countries of the world. Click here to see the an interactive guide.

Click here for the full report as a pdf file

David Isenberg's critique of Homeland Security and recommendations for improvements
[click on image to go to the executive summary]

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

WASHINGTON PREPARES FOR A "SHOCK AND AWE" ASSAULT ON IRAQ
A massive onslaught employing missiles and precision 3,000-lb bombs at a rate ten times greater than the Gulf War is being prepared. The object: crater Baghdad’s leadership, including Saddam Hussein.
Report on the BBC
Report in the New York Times

EXPECT A NEW KIND OF WAR
"...America's military hardware—in particular, its surveillance equipment, munitions and means of delivering them—has evolved dramatically in the decade since the Gulf war. Its military superiority is now greater than any power's for many centuries. Meanwhile, the strength of Iraq's army, measured in tanks, artillery and troops, has declined by more than half. ...but the devastating results of trying to fight America and its allies as if they were Iran or Kuwait—in open terrain, where Iraqi forces were crushed by air power and artillery—will encourage Mr Hussein to try to lure the invaders into Iraq's cities. And America's conventional strength will encourage him to use other, unconventional methods. In 1991, Iraq did not use chemical or biological weapons. This time, the fact that the war will be explicitly directed towards removing his regime could also remove any inhibitions Mr Hussein has about using them..."
(The Economist, February 3, 2003)

GET ON THE TRAIN OR DROP OUT
Bush’s message to the U.N. is simple: join the U.S. attack against Saddam, or face irrelevance. Europe seems to be getting the message. Most world leaders today are thinking less about how best to deal with Mr. Hussein than about how to deal with an unstoppable superpower.
(Serge Schmemann, New York Times News of the Week in Review, February 2, 2003)

IN MEDIA CAT FIGHT OVER IRAQ THE NEW YORK TIMES IS THE TARGET
Analyzing the New Republic's sudden decision to attack the new York Times for going slow on Iraq, the Washington Post's Howard Kurtz points out that the editors have made a bizarre about-face."The magazine has taken an unrelentingly hawkish stance on Iraq, not unlike George Bush," says Kurtz,"and it is ready to do battle against the liberal, reasoned, lets-not-rush-into-war-stance of the Times’ editorial page…’
(Howard Kurtz, the Washington Post,January 31, 2003)

THE NEW REPUBLIC'S EDITORIAL CHASTISING THE NEW YORK TIMES FOR GOING SLOW ON IRAQ
: "…The editorials of The New York Times are a good showcase of the intellectual incoherence of the liberal war critics. The Times is worth dwelling on not only because of its great influence but also because its opposition to war is carefully calibrated, closely matching the views of mainstream Democrats rather than those of angry street demonstrators…."
(Editors, the new Republic, Jan. 31, 2003)

WHEN THE CIA REVISED ITS ASSESSMENT OF AL QAEDA
During the Clinton administration, the CIA was there but it missed the big picture. As in the attack on Pearl Harbor, U.S. intelligence heard the signals, but no one was listening.
(Jeffrey Goldberg, The New Yorker, February 3, 2003)

CSIS BRIEFING BOOK ON IRAQ
Background articles and data from the center for Strategic and International Studies.

NO EVIDENCE YET OF OIL FIELD MINES
MEES—the Cyprus-based Middle East Economic Survey—reports that—despite reports to the contrary--there is no evidence yet that Saddam has started mining oil fields, yet.
(MEES, February 3, 2003)

UNSCOM’S FORMER CHIEF ROLF EKEUS ANALYZES RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ON IRAQ
The U.N.’s first, and most dynamic chief arms controller, Rolf Ekeus, speaks with Carnegie’s Jessica Matthews on the significance of recent developments. (This is available as a downloadable MP3 audio file, which can be accessed with RealAudio).
(Rolf Ekeus, Carnegie Endowment for International peace, January 3, 2003)

AN ANNOTATED DECONSTRUCTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH’S STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
Foreign Policy in Focus takes a closer look: "The attempt to put Baathist Iraq on par with Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia is ludicrous. Hitler's Germany was the most powerful industrialized nation in the world when it began its conquests in the late 1930s and Soviet Russia at its height had the world's largest armed forces and enough nuclear weapons to destroy humankind. Iraq, by contrast, is a poor Third World country that has been under the strictest military and economic embargo in world history for more than a dozen years after having had much of its civilian and military infrastructure destroyed in the heaviest bombing in world history…"
(John Gershman, Foreign Policy in Focus, January 29, 2003)
James Fallows deconstructs the speech for the Atlantic
Donald Rumsfeld gives the Pentagon's perspective at a press conference
How the State of the union Address plays in the Middle East:Picking and choosing what to emphasize..
(Middle East Economic Survey-February 3, 2003)
An Arab view on the U.S. and Iraq
(Mees, February 3, 2003)

THE THREATENING STORM: KENNETH POLLACK MAKES A STRONGER CASE FOR ATTACKING IRAQ THAN THE PRESIDENT
Just because the president has a difficult time using proper syntax or pronouncing the English language doesn't mean that he is wrong about Iraq. Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst, and member of the national Security Council makes some convincing arguments on why Saddam should not be left to his own devices.
Trish Durkin reviews Polllack's book in the New York Observer
David Remnick expresses similar views in the New Yorker

IS THE UNRESOLVED PALESTINIAN PROBLEM THE FATAL WEDGE?
Michael Doran, writing in Foreign Affairs, notes that many in the Middle East, Europe and even the US think that the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is the real issue in the Middle East—not Iraq. By failing to understand regional sensibilities, Washington could be courting disaster.
(Michael Doran, Foreign Affairs, February 3, 2003)

ISRAEL CONVICTS ITS FIRST AL-QAEDA SUSPECT
Nabil Okal trained in Afghanistan, and sought to set up a cell in Gaza. He never got to launch an attack. He was sentenced to 27 years.
(Ha’aretz, February 3, 2003)

CONFUSION OVER PROMOTING DEMOCRACY
During the war on terrorism, George W. Bush has shown a split personality on the promotion of democracy abroad. Bush the realist seeks warm ties with dictators who may help in the fight against al Qaeda, while Bush the neo-Reaganite proclaims that democracy is the only true solution to terror. How the administration resolves this tension will define the future of U.S. foreign policy.
( Thomas Carothers, Foreign Affairs, Jan-February 2003)

THE WEEK OF SHAME
Winslow T. Wheeler’s essay on how Congress ceded its power to declare war to the White House and lost control over the Republican juggernaut that is now pushing the U.S. into armed conflict.
(Winslow T. Wheeler, Center for Defense Information, Feb. 3, 2003)

PREVIEW OF FY’04 DEFENSE BUDGET
"Total Pentagon spending in FY’04 is expected to be around $380 billion in outlays, roughly four percent above current levels…" The Center for Defense Information details who gets what, including $23 billion for "transformational" technologies, and $38 billion for "Homeland Security." Pentagon hawks want more.
(Center for Defense Information, Jan. 30, 2003)
The Pentagon reports the budget.
The Pentagon press briefing

IN INDIA IT IS MUSLIMS WHO ARE TARGETS OF RELIGIOUS FANATICISM
India’s Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteers Association, or R.S.S.) has pushed religious fanaticism to new limits, and its targets are Muslims.
(The New York Times Magazine, Sunday Feb. 2, 2003)

IS JOURNALIST IN JAIL FOR STATUTORY RAPE OR FOR REPORTING KAZAKH CORRUPTION?
Ivan Duvanov claims that the real reason Kazakhstan’s president Nursultan Nazerbayev wants him in jail is a series of articles last summer dealing with oil company slush funds that members of the government allegedly hid in secret bank accounts. Europe’s OSCE has called for an investigation.
No one denies that journalism in Kazakhstan is a risky business.
( Erbol Jumagulov in Almaty, Institute for War, Peace reporting, February 3, 2003)

WEST DROPS BALL ON SETTING UP AFGHAN LEGAL SYSTEM
The Western powers may say they want democracy in Afghanistan, but so far they have failed to deliver resources to rebuilding Afghanistan’s legal system which will be a major component of any future government.
(The International Crisis Group, January 28, 2003)

DOES VLADIMIR PUTIN REALLY LOOK LIKE THE ELF IN HARRY POTTER?
...For Putin's critics, the president's physical resemblance to an irritating, self-hating gnome is a source of glee. "The similarity becomes even greater when you observe poor Dobby's upheavals. Destitute, cowardly, ingratiating, he betrays his masters and beats himself for the sake of a sorcerer," the Zavtra newspaper said."
(The Moscow Times, February 3, 2003)
Humorless Russian lawyers plan to sue
(The Guardian, Feb. 3, 2003)

IS THE PENTAGON PERPETUATING A MAGINOT LINE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY?
"The US Department of Defense has pinned the military capacity of the nation on hopes that as yet unproven technology will generate significant operational advantages," observes Lieutenant Colonel John A. Gentry,( USAR Ret.), "Operational inadequacies, technical limitations, and fundamental institutional problems indicate that these dreams are doomed to fail... The United States may be creating what historians will one day call the Maginot Line of the 21st century…"
(John A. Gentry, Parameters Quarterly, US Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Winter 2003)

WHAT NOT TO LEARN FROM AFGHANISTAN
"…The principal lesson of modern war is the need to operate in combined arms teams to win decisive victories that yield beneficial political change. There are no "silver bullets" that can win wars by themselves, even if fitted with satellite guidance. Nor is war just about blowing things up. War is "politics by other means" with the aim to determine how territory and people are governed, and to what ends rulers direct their resources. This cannot be done from 15,000 feet in the air…"
(William R. Hawkins, Parameters Quarterly, The U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Summer, 2002)

CONFUSING INTELLIGENCE WITH EVIDENCE
Intelligence agencies are there to warn us about potential dangers so we can prepare ourselves in advance. Unlike the police, they often cannot afford to take the time to collect solid evidence—the proverbial smoking gun—needed to prove their case. Confusing the difference between intelligence and evidence can have disastrous consequences for policy makers.
(Bruce Berkowitz, RAND & The Washington Post, February 2, 2003)

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