Ralph A. Cossa: on avoiding World War III Stephen E. Gottlieb: on a better way to fight terrorism without sacrificing civil liberties Sean Howard: on moving beyound half-truths in the non-proliferation debate THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Why We Are Hated,Nuclear Bunker busters AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

New York University

ANTI-AMERICANISM IS BACK IN STYLE
Boston University professors Margaret and Melvin DeFleur have updated their study of attitudes about America in different countries of the world. Click here to see the an interactive guide.

Click here for the full report as a pdf file

David Isenberg's critique of Homeland Security and recommendations for improvements
[click on image to go to the executive summary]

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE STATE OF THE UNION
The speech: "…We will consult. But let there be no misunderstanding: If Saddam Hussein does not fully disarm, for the safety of our people and for the peace of the world, we will lead a coalition to disarm him. (Applause.) Tonight I have a message for the men and women who will keep the peace, members of the American Armed Forces: Many of you are assembling in or near the Middle East, and some crucial hours may lay ahead. In those hours, the success of our cause will depend on you. Your training has prepared you. Your honor will guide you. You believe in America, and America believes in you. (Applause.)
For full text click here…
For webcast and White House backgrounder on how the speech was prepared, go to http://www.whitehouse.gov
For a discussion on what it means, go to the BBC's Newshour

COLIN POWELL EASES TOWARDS THE HAWKS ON IRAQ
Normally on the side of diplomacy, Colin Powell now seems to be losing patience and crossing over to the side of the administration hawks. His message to Iraq is clear: actively help U.N. inspectors to fill in the missing blanks, or prepare for the consequences. Read Powell’s take in a press conference Monday.
(Colin Powell, Department of State, January 27, 2003)
Powell at Davos (January 26, 2003)

SHARON’S VICTORY A CRUSHING DEFEAT FOR THE LEFT, BUT WHAT COMES NEXT?
There was no surprise in Ariel Sharon's victory in Israel’s elections. That has been a foregone conclusion for weeks. How Sharon will form his next coalition is less certain. The absence of the left in Sharon's new government is likely to cause problems. At the top of the list is the fact that with the left out of the government, it is now free to discuss issues such as settlements in the Occupied territories--a subject that was off limits as long as both groups shared power. Ha’aretz analyzes the hurdles faced by the new government.
(Ha’aretz, January 27, 2003)
Victory details (Ha'aretz, January 29, 2003)
Voting from the Gut (Ha’aretz, January 27, 2003)
BBC analysis

IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION PREPARING A NUCLEAR OPTION FOR IRAQ?
Writing in the Los Angeles Times, military affairs analyst William Arkin, reports that the U.S. Strategic Command based in Omaha, Nebraska, is preparing target lists and preparing plans for using tactical nuclear weapons in preemptive situations.
(William Arkin, Los Angeles Times, January 26, 2003)

THE FBI ORDERED TO MAKE LISTS OF MOSQUES AND MUSLIMS AS PART OF THE "WAR AGAINST TERRORISM"
In the days immediately following 9/11, the administration went out of its way to stress that all citizens are equal regardless of religious conviction and that the Justice Department had no intention of targeting suspects based on race or religion. Not any more. The FBI claims that it doesn’t want to investigate the mosques—just protect them from terrorist attacks. Not surprisingly, civil rights and Arab American organizations aren’t buying that. (New York Times, January 27, 2003)
Read the report in the New York Times.
Read the response from the American Civil Liberties Union.

IRAQ BOOBY TRAPS OIL FIELDS
The Middle East News Agency quotes American intelligence experts as saying that Iraq is already booby trapping its oil fields in anticipation of a U.S. attack. A number of U.S. oil field firefighting firms have already been booked in advance.
(Mena, January 27, 2003)

THE WAR ON TERRORISM IS NOT THE ONLY FRONT
Despite the distraction of a future war with Iraq, the fact is that Washington has failed to eliminate either Osama Bin laden or Al Qaeda. If anything, Americans are even more vulnerable to the rapidly expanding number of terrorist threats today than they were before 9/11. This month’s issue of Foreign Policy magazine points out that the West has been losing ground or treading water on five other major fronts as well: the war on drugs, protection of intellectual property rights, international arms trafficking, smuggling illegal aliens, and money laundering. What is going on? The criminals are globalizing faster than unwieldy national governments.
Read Moises Naim’s analysis of the 5 wars of Globalization in Foreign Policy, February 2003.

COUNTERING THE INSPECTION TRAP
Martin Indyk and Kenneth Pollack note that Saddam usually runs up the white flag when under pressure, only to resume his "cheat and retreat" tactics as soon as the danger has passed. Indyk and Pollack recommend stressing "compliance" not "cooperation." The Bush administration should de-emphasize the hunt for a "smoking gun" and concentrate instead on sharing intelligence with allies.
By Martin Indyk and Kennth M. Pollack, Brookings Institution, January 27, 2003

BUSH’S VERY OWN RUBICON
The President may say that he still considers peace an option, but hardly anyone who has talked with him lately gets that impression. Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution points out that a quick victory might win the U.S. new friends, but a protracted messy struggle can have equally messy consequences. Just one nightmare scenario: a Muslim backlash in Pakistan could sweep Musharraf from office and hand Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to Islamic radicals, and that could inspire India to follow the President’s preemptive lead and launch its own nuclear war. Whatever Bush decides, the longterm evaluation of his presidency will depend to a great extent on how effectively American foreign policy demonstrates leadership during the rest of his presidency.
By Strobe Talbott, Brookings, January 23, 2003

STARTING A WAR WITH IRAQ IS EASY. WHAT COMES AFTERWARDS IS A DIFFERENT MATTER
The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ latest report on Iraq points out that defeating Saddam is only half the struggle. Up until now there is little indication that we are preparing manpower or resources for the reconstruction of a post-conflict Iraq. A number of steps from creating an international transitional military force, to hiring international police, need to be initiated now. In short, when it comes to shaping a post-Saddam Iraq, the administration needs to move from rhetoric to action.
(CSIS, January 23, 2003)
CSIS's Iraq Report
Iraq’s financial obligations

PAUL WOLFOWITZ AT THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
"As terrible as the attacks of September 11th were, we now know that the terrorists are plotting still more and greater catastrophes."(Wolfowitz, CFR, January 23, 2003)
Wolfowitz remarks transcript
White House talking points

NATO’s FUTURE
Felix Rohatyn and Jean-Paul Bechat report on the future of North Atlantic Defense Community.

UPDATING THE MILITARY BALANCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF
While the U.S. is rapidly stepping up its deployment, Russia is also sending two anti-submarine destroyers. As the Russians explain," Their function will be "protecting Russia ’s national interest in the region" through intelligence collected about potential U.S. operations, not assisting the United States in any possible campaign against Iraq." The Center for Defense Information updates recent deployments from all forces to the area.
CDI January 22, 2003.

Britain steps up its deployment.
(Ministry of defense , January 2003)

WHEN THE RESERVES ARE CALLED UP
The Pentagon is hastily transferring critical jobs from the reserves to the regular Army in an effort to
reduce domestic political pressure against engaging the U.S. in a Middle East war. This will reverse a Vietnam-era policy set in motion by General Creighton Abrams. Abrams had wanted to make sure that the next time the U.S. went to war the president would have to make certain that he had full support of the entire American citizenry first. In remarks to the Reserve Officers Association a week ago, Donald Rumsfeld repeated that analysis, but added that it no longer seems relevant. Said Rumsfeld, "Apparently after the Vietnam War there was a feeling that it would be wise to put critical early-needed skills into the reserves, the theory being that that way we would never have a conflict unless the reserves were mobilized and the country was supportive and it could be sustained. The problem with that is that we have a wonderful all-volunteer military. We have a terrific total force concept…"
To read the comprehensive report in the New York Times,( January 26, 2003), click here…
To read a transcript of Rumsfeld’s remarks to the Reserve Officer’s Association (January 19-22, 2003) click here…

KREMLIN BIG OIL ON COLLISION COURSE
A dispute over pipeline routes sets the Kremlin against newly independent "Big Oil." The oil companies want to choose their own pipeline routes to the next generations biggest customers—the U.S.and Asia. The Kremlin still wants to call the shots. The prize is control over who has priority in tapping Russia’s immense oil reserves.
(Moscow Times, January 27, 2003)

VIOLENCE IN KIVU
The glaring exception in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s recent progress towards peace is the eastern province of Kivu, where fighting still rages. Kivu is where the ethnic tensions first erupted, and just about everyone wants to reshape the province for their own ulterior purposes. The ultimate result could be to push the Congo back into open warfare.
The International Crisis Group analyzes the multilevel conflict in Kivu and its impact on the Congo peace process.
( ICG, January 24, 2003)

FRENCH EMBASSY ATTACKED IN AFRICA
An angry mob attacked the French Embassy in Cote d’Ivoire Sunday to protest the latest French-brokered peace agreement. The mob’s complaint: the agreement gives away too much to the rebels.
(AP January 26, 2003)

IVORY COAST STILL NERVOUS A YEAR AFTER COUP
(All Africa news, January 4, 2003)

ARABS WARN OF POTENTIAL DISASTER, BUT WHO IS LISTENING THESE DAYS?
Egyptian editor Mohamed Sid-Ahmed is part of an Arab delegation warning Europeans about the unpredictability of launching a war in the Middle East. "A military conflagration in the region will only increase the feelings of resentment and helplessness that drive people to acts of desperation; that is, instead of containing terrorism, it will lead to even more violent terrorist acts." Sid-Ahmed’s main point: turmoil in the Middle East is about Palestine not Iraq, so why not handle the core problem first? The French and Germans are sympathetic, but Washington isn’t listening to them, so what makes anyone think they will listen to a group of Egyptians?
(Mohamed Sid-Ahmed in Al Ahram Weekly, January 23-29, 2003)

HANS BLIX WALKS A TIGHT ROPE

UNMOVIC’s chief avoided drawing any definitive conclusions in his report to the U.N.. Instead, he emphasized that a monitoring structure is now in place and it is up to the Security Council to decide what to do with it. That said, Hans Blix pointed out that although the Iraqis are not blocking inspections the way they did in the past, they are still addicted to a strategy of "cheat and retreat." One example is an Iraqi lie about the importation of 650 kilograms of biological growth medium that could be used to produce anthrax. Pressed, Iraq resubmitted a report, but excluded a critical table listing the material. "The absence of this table would appear to be deliberate," Blix reported. " The pages of the resubmitted document were renumbered." Not an unimportant omission. "I note," said Blix," that the quantity of media involved would suffice to produce, for example, about 5,000 litres of concentrated anthrax." Another concern was the discovery of 3,000 pages of documents dealing with laser enrichment of uranium that were hidden in an Iraqi scientist’s home, and an Iraqi Air Force document that suggests that 6,500 chemical bombs, about 1,000 tons worth, are still unaccounted for. (Hans Blix, UN, January 27, 2003)
To read the full text of Blix’s remarks, click here.

Streaming video of Blix’s presentation

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