Winslow T. Wheeler: Does Saddam Hussein's capture really marks a second end to major hostilities in Iraq? Charles Knight and Richard Corbin: Who gets to pay for a costly occupation in Iraq? Ronald Bruce St John: Judging the Bush doctrine on Iraq performance. Dan Smith: Next comes Iraqi nationalism

New York University

U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

THE DEADLY BIRD FLU

Checking for sick chickens in Thailand
AVIAN INFLUENZA ALIAS "BIRD FLU" SWEEPS ASIA
A Global world faces global risks. So far the flu that is killing chickens in Asia has only caused a few human deaths and scientists say for the moment that only people who have direct contact with live chickens appear to be in danger, but that could change at any time. The sudden outbreak has already spread to Vietnam, Indonesia and Laos, triggering a panic in Asia. The Indonesians admit that they've had the disease since August. The BBC provides an overview of the dimensions of the pandemic. (BBC January 26, 2004).
The BBC gives an index of breaking stories.
According to the Bangkok Post, a government minister admitted that first signs of the danger may have appeared nearly a month ago (Bangkok Post, January 27, 2004).
The Asia Times reports that Bangkok denies a cover-up.

WAS THE U.N. RIGHT ABOUT IRAQ TO BEGIN WITH?
The latest report from Britain's Basic (British American Security Information Council), indicates that UNSCOM, the original United Nations inspection effort in Iraq was largely correct in its assessments of Iraqi weapons capabilities. In contrast, British intelligence and the Bush Administration were wrong about crucial details. David Kay, the head of the Bush administration's efforts to find weapons of mass destruction, resigned Friday, after reporting that he had found none. Charles Duelfer, the former executive director of UNSCOM, will replace Kay. BASIC's 72-page report, which is published just before release of the Hutton Report in London, summarizes recently collected information on Iraq's weaponry just before the release of the Hutton Report in England. It is readable on-line or downloadable in pdf format.(By David Isenberg and Ian Davis, Basic , January 25, 2004). David Kay thinks mass corruption rather than mass destruction was the true aim of Iraqi weapons experts. The question is: why did the intelligence agencies get it wrong?
(The New York Times, January 26, 2004)•PBS' Front Line documentary series also provides an extensive background file on David Kay and the search for weapons of mass destruction.

WILL TONY BLAIR BE THE FIRST CASUALTY?
British Prime Minister Tony Blair told reporters that if he had actually spun Britain into the war on Iraq, he would have to resign. Blair also stated not long afterwards that he had no role in leaking the identity of weapons expert Dr. David Kelly to reporters, and added that his position would be untenable if he had lied on that issue as well. Kelly eventually committed suicide. An inquiry by Lord Hutton into the affair will be published on Wednesday. Blair is already facing a critical vote over an initiative to get British students to pay for part of their university education. If the Hutton Report is negative, the prime minister could be fatally weakened.
Report on BBC, January 26, 2004
The BBC's Guide to latest information on the Hutton Report

COLIN POWELL SPEAKS OUT IN MOSCOW
In an unusual letter, published in Izvestia, Colin Powell denounced recent developments in Russia as showing that Moscow is not yet fully tethered to the law. Then , in a press conference with Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, Powell insisted that he had not been interfering in Russia's internal affairs. Powell had already met Ivanov at the inaguration of the new president of Georgia. (State Dept, January 26, 2004)
RUSSIA OUT, AMERICANS IN?
The U.S. is determined to get the Russians out of Georgia. Regional pundits are asking whether that's a prelude to the U.S. moving in. Does it really matter? The answer is "Yes." Georgia is a major route that the U.S. has been pushing for a pipeline to move oil from the Caspian sea to the West. The Caspian oil reserves are estimated at 75 billion barrels--the largest new oil find since the North Sea. Without Georgia, the only immediately feasible route is through Russia, which badly needs the cash to refurbish its military. The Institute for Peace and War Reporting analyzes the implications.
(IWPR, January 22, 2004)
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, newly elected Georgian president Shaakashvilli thanked president Bush for understanding why he had to visit Moscow first before going to Washington. "I need Russia as a friend," Saakashvili said. He added that Russia is much weaker than the U.S. and that tended to make it more aggressive as a country. (Summary report-New Directions for Georgia, January 21, 2004)
Powell attends a "town hall" meeting in Georgia
(State Dept. January 24, 2004)
Russian support for breakaway South Ossetia remains a problem (Georgia Times, January 2004)

TURKEY'S PRIME MINISTER TAYYIP ERDOGAN VISITS WASHINGTON THIS WEEK
In a Newsweek interview, Erdogan says that he is concerned about the possible breakup of Iraq in the future, and he thinks a federation based on ethnic identity or religious adhesion will have a negative impact on Syria, Iran and Turkey. What that means for the planned turn over of authority by the US in June is another question
(Newsweek, February 2 issue, 2004).

HAS THE U.S. BECOME A DEFACTO EMPIRE?
something in the American psyche still resists thinking of the US as an empire. Much of the rest of the world feels differently about it. The BBC has just launched a 6-part series on the topic. (BBC, January 26, 2004).
Read the text.
Listen to the series on line.

MEANWHILE IN AFGHANISTAN
US Casualties have been lighter than in Iraq--only 100 killed, but the death toll on civilians has been much higher, and there is no end in site, nor in fact, any coherent plan to find an end. The Center for Defense Information updates the combat situation from December 15 through January 18, 2004. (CDI, January 23, 2004)

KEEPING UP WITH IRAQ
For anyone who wants to follow the latest news published in Iraqi newspapers, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting has just launched the Iraq Press Monitor, accessible on the internet or as a subscription email newsletter. While not exactly scintillating writing, the Monitor gives you a good feel for how Iraqis are reacting to the somewhat erratic American efforts at taking over from Saddam. (Institute for War and Peace Reporting, January 26, 2004)

JAMES FALLOWS DECONSTRUCTS THE STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH
In a paragraph-by-paragraph analysis, Fallows guesses at the presidents real motivations while in talking to the nation.
( The Atlantic, January 22,2004)

ROBERT KAGAN ON HOW THE U.S. LOOKS FOR LEGITIMACY
Winning the War in Iraq was the easiest part. As Robert Kagan points out in the New York Times, it is convincing people that war is the right thing to do that is difficult. (Robert Kagan, New York Times, January 25, 2004)

Anthony Cordesman—The other side of the elections in Iraq.
(Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies, January, 2004)

WHEN IT COMES TO KEEPING PEACE IN SUDAN, OUTSIDE HELP IS NEEDED.Even before the current fighting, the CSIS was predicting problems. The latest study by the Center for Strategic and International argues that securing a lasting peace in Sudan requires the help of foreign peace keepers.(CSIS, January 23, 2004)

Iraqis exercise political expression

PUTTING IRAQ BACK TOGETHER
A copy of Ghassan Salame's keynote speech to a recent Oil&Money Conference in London, was circulating at last week's World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. US Envoy Paul Bremer had been scheduled to speak at Davos, but failed to appear. Here are some extracts from Salame's speech:
"...The Coalition is intent on creating a new Iraq of its own; and one should not ignore the dimensions of that truly imperial ambition. This policy is supported by those Iraqis who see this ‘purification’ drive as a precondition for their push to fill the state apparatus with their own people, which they are slowly doing. The fear in Iraq is that the transition underway is less one from dictatorship to democracy than a transition from a Ba'thist-ruled Iraq to a yet-to be defined new hegemony of some other group. In this master plan, the Coalition defines a concrete role for each and everyone: the Governing Council should do this, the ministers that, the clerics, the US military, the UN, etc. Actors are given specific tasks to achieve...So here we are: you can hardly work WITH the Coalition: you have to work FOR it (and be rapidly overworked as so many American aides have been), AGAINST it (and sustain Washington’s furor) or forget Iraq as long as the CPA is, the single ruler, with, by some measures, much more power than Saddam ever had. The US has chosen direct rule as a principle and Ambassador Bremer has transformed it largely into a personal one, probably less by intent than by a gradual slide. Truly, this Promethean ambition preceded Bremer: civilians in the Pentagon had set such high, overloaded, stakes for the war in Iraq that Bremer had only to wear ready-made imperial clothes...The problem with Iraq is precisely that those who initiated the war wanted to be the first act in a regional reshuffle in which those whose help is now needed were supposed to be the next in line in the famous democracy crusade, with its cascade of regimes change. Shifting from those broad objectives into a policy of appeasement will not be easy for the ideologues of the Bush administration...

(Ghassan Salame's speech to the Oil & Money Conference, London November 17, 2003)
to read the whole speech, click here

The Security Policy Working Group

Need information, but having trouble with a broken link? Send an e-mail to wtd2@nyu.edu
or click here
We may be able to help

For quick access to the Global Beat, set your bookmark to:
http://globalbeat.org