THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Why We Are Hated,Nuclear Bunker busters AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

New York University

David Isenberg's critique of Homeland Security and recommendations for improvements
[click on image to go to the executive summary]

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

HOW THE RUSSIANS SEE AMERICA’S CHANCES IN IRAQ
An internal report currently circulating through various committees of Russia’s legislature, the Duma, envisions three scenarios for a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. An optimistic first scenario envisions suppression of Iraq’s air defenses and command and control centers is a given. A land-based attack would involve three heavy divisions moving into Iraq from Kuwait, and would probably last four to six weeks. A second, more ominous, scenario predicts a pitched battle stretching out for 6 to 12 weeks after the U.S. encounters unexpectedly heavy resistance from Iraqi forces. A third. Worst case, scenario, forecasts a war that could last up to six months, involves heavy street fighting in Iraq’s cities, attacks across the border into Turkey, the destruction of oil fields and the use of weapons of mass destruction against Israel. The Russians give the most optimistic scenario a 40-60% probability. The most pessimistic scenario gets a 10% probability rating.
BBC monitoring of Interfax-AVN military news agency web site, Moscow
Center for Defense Information, January 3, 2003

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST?
The most terrifying part of extending the War Against Terror into Iraq may be the price tag. Forget about the fact that an invasion is likely to cost U.S. tax payers $100 billion or more and that in contrast to Desert Storm in which most of the cost was born by Arab allies, Washington will now be going it alone financially. The Center for Economic and Policy Research’s Dean Baker and Mark Weisbrot have just completed a detailed study of what is likely to happen if the War in Iraq goes wrong. Among their predictions: a loss of 1.6 million jobs in an economy reeling from a new oil crisis. An increased security threat from terrorism resulting from the war would slow the U.S. economy by 0.1% of GDP, and the economy will be further battered by third world boycotts of American goods. The slowdown resulting from energy that could reach $75 for a barrel of oil in a worst-case scenario would be roughly equivalent to the high end predictions of what might happen if the U.S. were to abide by the Kyoto protocol.
Dean Baker and Mark Weisbrot, The Center for Economic and Policy Research, January 9, 2003.

Baker and Weisbrot based much of their analysis on a study by Yale's William Nordhaus. Nordhaus' analysis of the potential cost of war with Iraq is available in pdf format from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. [Click here]

LONDON GOES AHEAD WITH ITS CONFERENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST DESPITE SHARON’S TRAVEL BAN ON PALESTINIANS
The Israeli government’s refusal to let Palestinian delegates go to London for a conference on the Middle East turned out to be only a minor stumbling block thanks to modern electronics. The latest travel ban was retaliation for a suicide bomb which killed 23 people and wounded nearly 100. Five out of six Palestinian ministers nevertheless managed to express their views via a video conference link from Ramallah (the sixth, Nabil Shath, was unable to travel from Gaza to Ramallah). The U.S. kept a low profile at the conference. Britain’s prime minister Tony Blair was determined to go ahead despite Israeli objections. The initiative is regarded as an important gesture to Arab sympathies if Britain is to throw its support behind the U.S. in an invasion of Iraq.
The Economist January 14, 2003

HAS AMERICA DECIDED THAT TORTURE IS A NECESSARY EVIL WHEN IT COMES TO HOMELAND SECURITY?
The Economist notes that news is beginning to flow in alleging incidents of American intelligence agencies torturing terrorist suspects, or simply turning them over to less scrupulous Middle Eastern governments to do the job for them. There is always the argument that a quick spot of torture may produce timely information to stop an impending terrorist attack, but the systematic use of torture, the Economist warns, would be an ominous reversal of previous American policy. The magazine points out in a special section on the subject that past attempts to use torture sparingly have quickly led to widespread abuse.
The Economist, January 11, 2003

MISSILE DEFENSE WILL NOT BE CHEAP
Anyone worried that the administration’s proposed $600 billion corporate dividend interest tax write off will swell the national debt should take a new look at the Bush administration’s anti-ballistic missile defense program. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation predicts that swelling costs are likely to boost the unproven system’s final price tag to between $800 million and $1.2 trillion over the next 30 years. Those figures are considerably higher than the ones put forward by Bush’s defense team, but the Center points out that until now estimates of the program’s costs have concentrated on development and acquisition, but have largely ignored long-term operations and maintenance costs. The Center’s 120-page report, issued January 3,2003 is the first publicly available study that takes into account all aspects of the system.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research, January 3, 2003

WHO IS THE MOST GLOBALIZED COUNTRY?
How about Ireland? Dublin beats everyone else out for the second year in a row, with Switzerland a close second. A. T. Kearney and Foreign Policy’s current interactive chart on who is really globalized is full of surprises. The United States is ranked 11th place out of 62 countries for overall globalism, first place for technology, but only 31st place when it comes to international tourism. That is just slightly better than the Ukraine. Towards the bottom of the list: Saudi Arabia, Peru, Brazil and India. At the absolute bottom for globalization: Iran.

EGYPT DOES SOME AGONIZING SOUL SEARCHING OVER THE PROSPECT OF A LADY JUDGE
By the end of the month, Tahani El-Gebali, 52, could become the first female sitting judge in modern Egyptian history—if she is able to surmount the growing wave of criticism from traditional Islamic institutions. Egypt’s Constitution guarantees the equality of the sexes. But Sharia law sees things differently. Three of the four principal schools of Sunni jurisprudence are against allowing a woman to serve as a judge. The fourth, the Hanafi school, allows women to serve as judges only in cases that involve affairs in which women are allowed to testify, namely the family and financial matters. Ahmed Taha Rayyan, former dean of Al Azhar’s School of Sharia and Law explains that: "Justice requires patience and sturdiness, which women lack."
Amina Elbedery explores the debate in this week’s Al Ahram Weekly.

THE FUTURE OF THE PERSIAN GULF
The latest RAND study predicts a tough course ahead for United States interests in the Persian Gulf, despite some positive signs of improvement. RAND’s advice: focus less on conventional military threats and take a closer look at weapons of mass destruction and the negative impact of domestic unrest in a number of Gulf countries. Objections to U.S. military presence on Arab land remains an important factor.
RAND 2002

TURKEY: FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
Turkey played a critical role in NATO during much of the Cold War, acting as a bulwark against Soviet influence in the Mediterranean. These days, Turkey is under growing pressure to assume responsibility in the Islamic world. If a war is launched against Iraq, Turkey’s strategic importance will be enormous. In a full-length downloadable book, RAND analyzes Turkey’s shifting foreign policy objectives in a world in which its own position is far from certain.
RAND January 2003.

YEMEN:FRAGILITY AND VIOLENCE
The history of violence in Yemen dates from well before 9/11, yet it is questionable whether Al Qaeda has significant influence there. While Yemen has been a good ally of the U.S. until now, the government is fragile. The U.S. has to act carefully to avoid counterproductive results.
By the International Crisis Group, January 8, 2003

RUSSIAN COLONEL ESCAPES CHECHEN MURDER CHARGE ON GROUNDS OF INSANITY
On March 26, 2000, a Russian army colonel, Yuri Budanov, and a group of soldiers arrived in an armored personnel carrier at the house of the Kungayev family in the Chechen village of Tangi-Chu. The only person at home was 18-year old, Kheda Kungayev who was living at home with her parents. With no one else to arrest, the Russians took her back to their base.
Later that evening, Budanov summoned his soldiers and ordered them to bury the girl's dead body in woodland. Budanov was in his underwear. The dead girl’s clothes had been slashed with a knife. A medical examination later determined that she had been raped and strangled. What made the case unusual was the fact that Budanov was actually arrested and made to stand trial for an offense that most Chechens regard as more or less ordinary behavior for the occupying Russian Army. In a trial that lasted most of last year, Russian authorities went to extraordinary limits to find a pretext for releasing Budanov. Insanity seemed like the most likely defense, and the Chechen seizure of a Moscow theater helped turn public opinion against the Chechens.
By Yury Tumanov in Rostov-on-Don and Asiyat Vazayeva in Nazran, The Institute for War & Peace reporting, January 9, 2003
OneWorld TV provides a streaming video television report with pictures of Kheda Kungaeva and her family (requires free RealAudio player).

Human Rights Watch backgrounder on the case

CLASS WARFARE?
No one doubts that Charlie Rangel is being provocative when he suggests that the risks of combat in a democracy ought to be shared equally regardless of economic class, i.e. in a universal draft that places the sons of the wealthy in harm's way to the same extent as the sons of the poor. Since so many hawks pushing for war with Iraq deftly sidestepped the risks of combat when called on to serve during the Vietnam War, Mr. Rangel’s suggestion has turned out to be every bit as embarrassing as it was intended to be. In a counterpunch, the Pentagon called a press conference Monday to tout the 30th of the "All Volunteer Army." Despite the cheer leading, the question and answer nevertheless seemed to illustrate Mr. Rangel’s point. Nearly a third of the U.S. force is now African American. But the real issue is not race. It is economic. For most white recruits, serving in the military means taking a steep cut in income compared to what they could expect to make in civilian life. In contrast, African American recruits can expect to earn far more in the military than their counterparts in civilian life. The bottom line is that serving in the U.S. Army is often a financial handicap for whites but an economic step up for many African Americans. It is not hard to understand why roughly 30% of the U.S. Army is now African American, or why a higher percentage stay in the military for more than one tour of duty. As for the sons of families that earn $150,000 a year, the ‘senior defense officer" giving the briefing explained candidly that that is a different category. "…The enlisted force, " he explained, "almost by definition, is not going to come out of the ranks of people whose parents make each $150,000 a year. Those people are where we would tend to recruit our officers from." All that is fine in peacetime. In a war it means that the risks of combat, and the price that is eventually paid to further American ambitions, or at least those of the current administration in Washington, are likely to be anything but democratic. On the other hand, the Pentagon argues that basing the country’s defense on volunteers means that no one is forced to serve against his will. The Pentagon’s briefing on the subject makes for fascinating reading.
By "Senior Defense Official", Department of Defense, January 13, 2003
[click here to view the transcript of the briefing]

CASE IN POINT: THE ELUSIVE WARRIOR
The year was 1968, Vietnam was in flames over the Tet offensive and the siege at Khe Sanh. Faced with the draft and a student deferment that is soon ending, an aspiring pilot—the son of a future president—tries out for the U.S. Air Force but only manages to score in the 25% percentile among candidates for pilot school. No problem. With the help of Texas House speaker, the aspiring warrior manages to jump over a list of more plebeian applicants for the Texas Air National Guard and wangles his way into the Guard’s "champagne unit," so-called because it is seeded with the sons of elite politicians and business moguls--none of whom are anxious to face combat in Vietnam. By October 1973, the Guard relieves the candidate from his service obligation eight months early so that he can attend Harvard Business School.
Reported in Mother Jones, January 2003
[click here]

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