William Hartung: on the enduring questions that remain after Saddam's capture Ehsan Ahrari: on why Saddam's capture will not eliminate the threat of terrorism Dan Smith: on U.S. military bases overseas as the price of empire Tommy Ates: on why the new Geneva accords are relevant Ralph A. Cossa: on the flashing yellow light from Taiwan and China

New York University

U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

OPERATION "VISIT U.S." GOES INTO ACTION
The program, which aims at tracking the 24 million foreigners who visit the U.S. annually, will only cover115 international airports and 14 seaports initially, and it can probably be easily circumvented by any dedicated terrorist. But this is only the first step in a comprehensive program that could eventually allow federal authorities to precisely pinpoint the movements of just about anyone at any point in time. Britain, Japan and the U.S. have been experimenting with computers that can recognize any individual's facial features from television security cameras that are now stationed nearly everywhere. While there is no question that the technology will help police track down criminals and potential terrorists and it currently has a roughly 80% approval rating from the American public, the technology will also give government authorities unprecedented control over individuals. In the hands of a totalitarian regime it could turn the elimination of political opponents and dissidents into child's play. For its part, the General Accounting Office warned in September that the program lacks a coherent management structure, is underfunded and relies on equipment that has not been thoroughly tested. Although only around $380 million has been budgeted for the program so far, some experts think the final cost could run as high as $20 billion.
•Jeanne Butterfield, head of the American Immigration Lawyers Association and Mark Butterfield, executive director of the Center for immigration studies, discuss the feasibility on the Jim Lehrer News Hour (News Hour, January 5, 2003)
•The GAO voices its concerns over inadequate management structure and underfinancing (The GAO, September 2003)
The Pentagon develops a database relying on fingerprints and biometric information for tracking Iraqi suspects once they are released from U.S. detention (Information Week, May 9, 2003)
•The BBC reports on new "millimeter scanning" technology that lets police see a naked body through clothes. (BBC November 12, 2003)
•The "Face Recognition Vendor Test" organization, another project funded by DARPA, reports on U.S. progress towards computerized facial recognition.
(FVRT.ORG, 2003)
•The Japanese plan to use computerized biometric identification at airports (PC World, November 6, 2003)
•Brazil ponders fingerprinting Americans (Reuters, January 6, 2003)

ASIA COMPETES FOR RUSSIAN OIL
Japan and China are competing for the direction of pipelines that will pump Russian oil towards the Pacific. The Japanese want the pipeline to extend to the Pacific, and they argue that that route will also allow Russia to ship oil to the U.S. across the Pacific. But China is slated to replace the U.S. as the world's largest petroleum consumer in 2030, and the route to China is both quicker and cheaper. (The New York Times, January 3, 2003)

ANNUAL CRISIS WATCH
The International Crisis Group has published its annual reading of the status of the world's crises. Seen as deteriorating are: Central Africa, Ivory Coast Haiti, Pakistan, Serbia and Zimbabwe. Improving: Burundi, Comoros Islands, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Kashmir and Libya. Not improved, i.e. no change: Afghanistan, Iraq and a host of others. Be on alert for conflict:
Côte d’Ivoire, Georgia, Haiti, Sudan(ICG, December 31, 2003)

DOING IT RIGHT IN IRAQ
Marine Lieutenant Colonel Carl E. Mundy provides an excellent description of an effective strategy to follow in Iraq. Rather than treating the population as enemies, U.S. commanders need to incorporate Iraq's population into their strategy, then use discretion in eliminating the pockets of resistance. (Carl E. Mundy, Brookings via the New York Times, December 30, 2003)

SCORING THE AFTERMATH IN IRAQ
Michael O'Hanlon and Adriana Lins point out that without accurate reporting by both intelligence officials and news reporters, it is hard to tell what is really happening in Iraq. What is needed is a framework for a consistent and unbiased assessment. (Michael O'Hanlon and Adriana Lins, the Brookings Institution, December 16, 2003)

TRYING TO DO AN OIL DEAL IN IRAQ
Oil executive David Horgan wants to do business in Iraq, but not quite yet. Until Iraq has its own government, actually signing a contract constitutes a leap into the unknown. You can't have legal protection, or any degree of predictability until you have a system of laws that everyone agrees on, and for that, you have to know who is going to be in charge.
(David Roston, The Nation, January 2, 2004)

SHOULD SADDAM BE EXECUTED?
President Bush seems to have concluded, even before the trial takes place, that Saddam will be executed. London's normally conservative Spectator argues that for the British, at least, an emphasis on real justice is especially important now--otherwise the whole exercise of going into Iraq to bring democracy will seem absurd. (The Spectator, 27 December, 2003)

NO RECOURSE FOR TORTURE AT GUANTANAMO?
Joanne Mariner, writing in FindLaw, notes that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals was shocked last month when lawyers representing the Bush administration argued that U.S. courts have no jurisdiction over what happens there, even if prisoners claim that the U.S. is engaging in "acts of torture" or "summarily executing the detainees." As Mariner describes it, visions of Argentina's "Dirty War" came to mind. The administration's argument, of course, is that the U.S. Marine base at Guantanamo, which is on a long-term lease from Cuba, is not technically on U.S. territory and therefore not under U.S. jurisdiction. On the other hand, the U.S. can take effective legal action for attacks against American citizens which are made outside the United States.More than that, the case raises the thorny legal question of whether officials of the U.S. government should be immune to U.S. law when operating on territory which for all practical purposes is completely under U.S. control. What is more disturbing, Mariner points out, is that U.S. officials seem to be acclimating themselves to the idea of using tactics in the name of the United States which under previous administrations would have seemed abhorrent. The 9th Circuit Court was clearly shocked at the current White House arguments. What remains now is to see how the U.S. Supreme Court will react.
(Joanne Mariner, Findlaw, January 5, 2003)

ANOTHER OPTION
Law professor, Thomas F. Powers, writing in the Weekly Standard, notes that the Bush administration's handling of terrorism cases has pleased no one and has been disturbingly inconsistent. The reason, Powers posits, is that administration legal advocates have been "morally intimidated and bullied by civil libertarian ideologues, partisan opportunists, and a press almost universally hostile on these issues--yet having accepted, along with the rest of the country, the lessons of Korematsu, the Red Scare, and the due process revolution of the 1960s--administration officials seem, not surprisingly, to prefer to evade the debate or retreat behind the rhetoric of 'security.'" The Standard's solution: create "Terrorism Courts" which can operate in secrecy normally denied conventional law courts, and which can engage in the special practices necessitated by "fighting terrorism."
(Thomas F. Powers, The Weekly Standard, January 3, 2004)

AFGHANISTAN ALMOST FORGOTTEN
The other war launched by the Bush administration against the Taliban in Afghanistan has all but been forgotten by just about everyone except the Taliban. In the best asymmetric warfare tradition, the Taliban were never really defeated--they simply faded into the hills and waited to regroup. U.S. reconstruction projects somehow never really got off the ground, and the Afghans went back to their most profitable export:opium. As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace visiting scholar, Husain Haqqani, an advisor to two Pakistani prime ministers, points out, Afghanistan now accounts for 77% of the world's global opium production, and produced 3,600 tons last year, enough to refine into 3,600 tons of heroine. Total revenues from illicit drug trafficking constitute more than half Afghanistan's GDP of $4.4 billion. The drug money is a ready source of financing for war lords and potential terrorists. A major reason that U.S. efforts to rid Afghanistan of the Taliban have not worked is that Pakistan, despite its professions of friendship to the U.S., is unwilling to shut down the Taliban's support network. Pakistan still sees the Islamic movement as potentially useful in its long term goal of keeping the upper hand in its competition with India.
Husain Haqqani, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 12, 2003)

AFGHAN CHARTER FIRST STEP TO ELECTIONS
The charter just agreed to by Afghan notables and tribal chieftains came after heated debate and a great deal of behind the scenes political bargaining. The shaky consensus clears the way for elections but offers few guarantees of future stability.
(Washington Post January 5, 2004)

INDIA AND PAKISTAN FINALLY AGREE TO TALK ABOUT KASHMIR
The breakthrough which took place at the end of a regional summit, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, held in Islamabad could be a crucial first step towards defusing one of the world's most potentially dangerous flashpoints.
•The BBC provides full text of the India-Pakistan joint statement, and links to important background material.
•The Pakistan News Service notes that India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf met in Islamabad for more than an hour. It was the first meeting between the two men since their conference in Agra in 2001, and it followed a series of confidence building moves. (Pakistan news service offers on-line videos of Musharraf's various pronouncements)
•The Times of India also reports on the meeting

BRUSHING UP ON THE APOCALYPSE
Interest in the Bible's Book of Revelations with dramatic predictions of the Apocalypse usually picks up during times of rapid change and unpredictability. The extreme wing of the Christian Right is not the only group to show interest lately. In medieval Russia, religious artists were seized by a similar frenzy, and Moscow's World Art Museum is now showing an exhibition of apocalyptic art by 13 contemporary Russian cartoonists. Yegor Larichev, who edits the museum's fine arts magazine, had originally wanted to make a film. Short of funds, he switched to the idea of commissioning the country's best cartoonists. Apocalyptic art has been a tradition in Russia since the 11th century.
(Anna Malpas in Moscow Times, January 5, 2004)

An Iraqi family being searched by American troops at 2 AM

CHARLIE COMPANY GOES AFTER RESISTANCE IN IRAQ
Independent Television's Martin Adler spent an astonishing 10 days with soldiers from the U.S. 4th Infantry Division in what is becoming an increasingly dirty war. In the opening sequence, American soldiers burst into a family's home in search of a suspected resistance fighter. A hooded informer stands outside. None of the soldiers can speak any Arabic. The man they are looking for is not there, so they arrest two relatives instead. A sobbing wife pleads with a soldier to at least let her husband put on his shoes before being taken away. Asked if the rough treatment isn't turning Iraqis against the U.S., a G.I. pauses for 30 seconds, and then mumbles in a low voice, "Not really."
In another sequence, Adler shows an Army captain who has effectively become the "acting governor" of his area, trying to deal with malingering local police recruits. The film leaves little doubt that GI's face a tougher task now than they did during the combat phase of the war. It offers little hope that things will get better soon. (The film can be seen on-line by clicking on the video button at the top of the transcript. It is also available in streaming audio) (Martin Adler, Independent News-rebroadcast by Jim Lehrer's News Hour,PBS, January 2, 2004)

TIME FOR A DIRTY WAR THAT GETS TOUGH WITH THE ENEMY?
Writing in the New Yorker, Seymour Hersh details Donald Rumsfeld's latest strategy which calls for a new special ops unit, Task Force 121, to track down, capture or terminate hard core members of the Iraqi resistance. Israeli intelligence officers have been brought in to help Americans plan their operations. Rumsfeld refers to the strategy as "Manhunts." Hersh quotes one U.S. advisor as saying, “The only way we can win is to go unconventional. We’re going to have to play their game. Guerrilla versus guerrilla. Terrorism versus terrorism. We’ve got to scare the Iraqis into submission.” Another source told Hersh:"We did the American things—and we’ve been the nice guy. Now we’re going to be the bad guy, and being the bad guy works.”
Getting reluctant U.S. commanders to go along with the idea required orchestrating a number of personnel changes--most notably turning much of the planning over to Lieutenant General William (Jerry) Boykin, who earned some renown as the combat commander in the 1993 Black Hawk Down debacle in Somalia. Boykin drew some attention to himself when the Los Angelese Times reported that he had made comparisons between Islam and Satan.
(Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker, December 15, 2003)

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