The Institute for Economic Development at Boston University                                                                    Research Review Spring 1999

"Internal Migration and Urbanization: Recent Contributions and New Evidence"

Robert E. B. Lucas

IED Discussion Paper 91, November 1998

Lucas’s paper on internal migration and urbanization in the developing countries was prepared as a background paper for the World Development Report 1999-2000. The paper is divided into two parts: a review of patterns of internal migration and urbanization and a survey of recent literature on the economics of internal migration.

The evidence on patterns of migration draws upon census data and several household surveys. Although most of the attention of economists has focused upon rural-urban migration, intra-rural migration is shown to be more common in many of the lower income countries, though much of this movement is between neighboring villages. As the portion of population remaining in rural areas dwindles at higher income levels, urban-urban migration increases and the contribution of rural-urban migration to urban population

growth diminishes. Pooling census data across countries and decades reveals that urbanization has accelerated over time, given GDP levels. However, considerable regional differences in rural-urban migration are revealed, given income levels.

The survey of recent literature indicates large gaps in our empirical evidence. Most attention has been directed toward the causes of internal migration. It is well established that employment opportunities play a major role, but very little information exists on the significance of networks, risk spreading, public amenities or violence. Less attention has been given to the consequences of migration: the evidence on whether migration promotes wage convergence between regions is found to be mixed and almost no evidence exists on convergence of unemployment; factors contributing to rural-urban earnings gaps and job search by migrants have begun to be studied and these findings are summarized; the contribution of migrants’ remittances to consumption smoothing remains contentious; and the causes of mega-city growth in the developing countries lacks empirical analysis though it has attracted some theoretical interest.

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