PATRICK ON THE RISE:
Poll shows him pulling out to 10-point lead in governor's race
Deval Patrick surged at least 10 percentage points ahead of his Democratic primary opponents, Chris Gabrieli and Atty. Gen. Tom Reilly, in the latest State House News Poll conducted by KRC/Communications Research.
From Sept. 7-10, pollsters spoke with 400 Massachusetts voters, 201 of whom said they will vote in the primaries. The final count found Patrick in the lead with 36 percent of the total, followed by Gabrieli with 26 percent and Reilly with 19 percent.
In an otherwise neck-and-neck race, the results were shocking.
‘‘Everybody waited for at least some separation to take place’’ among the candidates, said a surprised Paul Watanabe, professor of political science at UMass-Boston. ‘‘The separation took place almost overnight.’’
Watanabe cited three reasons for the percentage spread: an increasingly focused electorate, the ‘‘ramping up’’ of paid advertisements by all campaigns, and the candidates’ increased visibility.
But Norfolk County voters bucked the statewide trend.
Gabrieli proved to be the local favorite, with 28 percent of the vote to Patrick’s 19 percent and Reilly’s 14 percent.
Quincy is traditionally considered ‘‘working class’’ and ‘‘rock-solid Democrat,’’ said Watanabe, a Weymouth resident. Usually, that would mean a win for Reilly or Patrick. However, Gabrieli’s popularity proves the city is becoming more economically diverse, Watanabe said.
Durell Lewis, a 32-year-old Brockton resident, said he is split between Gabrieli and Patrick. As a property owner, he said any hike in taxes would affect him ‘‘significantly.’’
He gave Reilly a no-confidence vote.
‘‘He’s just not political enough,’’ Lewis said. ‘‘He needs to know more tricks of the trade.’’
Dick Niemi, 63, seemed to disagree. Although undecided, the Canton resident said that, of all the candidates, the attorney general has ‘‘proven more that he can do things [in Massachusetts].’’
Patrick would win Joe Bukin’s vote.
‘‘He seems more straightforward,’’ said the 34-year-old fence installer from Quincy.
But regardless which Democrat takes next week’s primary, poll results show he would defeat all other candidates for governor - with Gabrieli fairing best among the three.
Watanabe credited the venture capitalist’s success to his moderate position between Patrick and Reilly on one hand and Lt. Gov. Kerry Healy on the other.
Meanwhile, third-party candidates for governor trailed far behind in the polls. Christy Mihos garnered 7 to 9% depending on the Democratic nominee, while Green-Rainbow candidate Grace Ross averaged 2 percent.
Pollsters found voters split among lieutenant governor candidates Deborah Goldberg, Tim Murray and Andrea Silbert one week from the primaries.
The State House News poll looked at issues beyond the upcoming elections.
Gov. Mitt Romney received favorable reviews from 53 percent of voters for his Big Dig takeover. They were more critical of Reilly, who 55 percent of voters claimed did a not-so-good to poor job supervising the project.
A slim majority of those polled thought Massachusetts officials were taking the right steps to make the state more secure post 9/11.
However, 48 percent of voters saw Massachusetts generally moving in the wrong direction.
Jim MacGregor, 36, a Randolph insulator and union member, said more people need to vote and become civically active. He said he made calls for the Democratic presidential campaign in 2004.
‘‘Everybody gets fired up, but nobody gets active,’’ MacGregor said.
Copyright 2006 The Patriot Ledger
Transmitted Wednesday, September 13, 2006