Abstract

     Much of the policy debate on climate issues has centered on the optimal level and timing of policy interventions that cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We briefly review the range of policy issues in our paper and assess the impacts that climate-change policies may have on energy use and carbon emissions in the US pulp and paper industry. We then present results from time series-based analyses of changes in technologies and fuel mix, and compare the results with engineering-based technology analyses of US pulp and paper production .
     Projections, based on information for eight paper and paperboard categories, are presented for the years 1995 - 2020. The findings indicate that, under a wide range of specifications and policy assumptions, carbon emissions from fossil fuel use per ton of product are likely to decline. When combined with investment incentives, an additional cost-effective reduction in carbon emissions per ton of product will be realized. However, expected increases in output from the industry are likely to be higher than the reductions in energy and carbon intensities. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.