EE/GG 550 SIMULATION MODELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL

AND SOCIAL SYSTEMS

Course Information

Instructor:

Brynhildur Davidsdottir

Office: STO 141; Office Hours: M,T,W: 11-12 AM.

Email:  bdavids@bu.edu, tel. 617-353-7553.

Teaching

Fellow:

Gang Gong

Office: CAS 338 (but is in computer lab during office hours)

Office hours: T 2-3pm and W 5-6 PM.

Email ggong@bu.edu, tel. 617-358-0204.

Meeting Time:

Lecture: Tuesdays, Thursdays 9:30 Ð 11:00 AM

Labs:  B1 on Wednesdays, 3 - 5 pm

          B2 on Thursdays, 3 - 5 pm

Classroom

Locations:

Lecture:  CAS B18A

Labs:     CAS 330

Required text and Materials

1. Bruce Hannon, B. and M. Ruth. 1994 (second edition) Dynamic Modeling, Springer-Verlag, New York. The text is available at the BU Bookstore Mall and at http://www.springer-ny.com/biology/moddysys

Optional Material

STELLA Research Software, High Performance Systems, Hanover, NH.

Software is available at a student discount price at http://www.hps-inc.com

Course  Description and Objectives:

The availability of powerful, intuitive software for developing and running models of real-world phenomena promises a revolution in teaching, studying, and thinking about complex problems ranging from the function of cells to the behavior of ecosystems and the workings of economies. This course will help you develop your systems thinking skills by integrating state-of-the-art modeling techniques with the theories and concepts of specific disciplines and interdisciplinary topics. The theories, concepts and tools used in this course come from a variety of disciplines which are necessary for the understanding and analysis of social and environmental problems, including physics, chemistry, biology, epidemiology, and economics. You will learn to apply these concepts and tools to organize social and environmental systems into your own computer program using the graphical programming language STELLA Research, and to develop through interdisciplinary dialog, models of complex, nonlinear, dynamic behavior.

After taking this course you will be able to:

  • Set up your own models of social and environmental systems, that solve systems of simultaneous equations which may contain e.g. nonlinearities, time lags, and random variables;

  • Conduct sensitivity analyses and explore systems dynamics under a wide range of what-if scenarios;

  • Use dynamic modeling to guide your own research, organize available data, and streamline the collection of new data;

  • Use interactive dynamic modeling to generate group consensus about the structure and behavior of nonlinear dynamic systems;

  • Learn how to transfer insights and skills from one discipline to solve problems of another discipline.

  • GET A JOB!

Course Requirements and Grading:

Grades are based on a take-home exam,  research project, homework and labs as follows:

                                        Percent of Grade        Due Date

Homework and Labs:               40%                       TBA

Exam                                    20%                       October 21

Project Proposal                                                   October 28

Project and Presentation            30%                       December 4.

Class and Lab Participation:      10%                       Always

Labs: You will receive lab assignments each week, which are due the day after the lab is held. In the lab you are expected to develop your own simulation models (see more info in the lab syllabus).

Homework Assignments: Biweekly homework assignments are given. Due-dates negotiable!

Project and Presentation:  You are expected to develop your own dynamic computer model and write a research paper describing your research. On Thursday October 30, we will discuss your proposed projects so be prepared to present your project ideas to the class. A short proposal (1 page max.) describing your proposed project is due on Tuesday October 28. You should however begin immediately to think about project ideas and I encourage you to submit a preliminary proposal before the October 30 deadline. The final report is due on Thursday Dec. 4.   You are expected to present your model and its results during the last week of class.

Exam: The exam is a take-home exam, where you are expected to use the skills youÕve learned in class. The exam is given out a week before the due-date of October 21.

Late lab reports homework  or projects

If you hand in late your lab reports, your homework or your project reports 10% of your grade will be deduced linearly for each day that the assignment is late.  It you were ill a doctorÕs note is required.

Incomplete Grades:

"I" grades are given only when specific work has not been completed AND when the student and instructor have conferred and the instructor has assigned a date within the next 12 months for the work to be completed.  The I grade automatically becomes a permanent F if the work is not completed with 12 months from when the incomplete was given.  This is CAS policy.

Academic Honesty

Plagiarism and other forms of academic misconduct are serious offenses.  I take them very seriously and I expect my students to do likewise. You should read the CAS Academic Conduct Code for further information about specific definitions, procedures, sanctions, etc.  Copies of the Code are available in CAS 105.  I am required to refer cases of suspected academic misconduct to the CAS DeanÕs Office.

DATE

TOPIC

READING

R

Sept.

4

Course Goals, Outline; Introduction to STELLA

Ch. 1

T

Sept.

9

Intro to STELLA and Four Model Set

2

R

Sept.

11

Gradual Development of a Dynamic Model 

3

T

Sept.

16

Gradual Development of a Dynamic Model 

3

R

Sept.

18

Multiple Independent Variables and the Use of Arrays

4

T

Sept.

23

Randomness

5

R

Sept.

25

Positive and Negative Feedback

6

T

Sept.

30

Derivatives and Lags

7

R

Oct.

2

Discrete Flows in Space and Time

35

T

Oct.

7

TBA

TBA
     

BIOLOGICAL MODELS

R

Oct.

9

Mating of Alleles

11

T

Oct.

14

No Class Ð Monday Schedule of Classes Ð Exam Given Out on Web

R

Oct.

16

Natural Selection, Mutation and Fitness

12

T

Oct.

21

EXAM DUE  - TBA

R

Oct.

23

Predator-Prey Models

18

T

Oct.

28

Spatial Predator-Prey Modeling Ð Project Proposals Due

18

R

Oct.

30

Presentation/Discussion of Project Proposals

T

Nov.

4

Epidemic Modeling

19
     

ECONOMIC MODELS

 

R

Nov.

6

The Competitive Firm

23, 24

T

Nov.

11

The Monopolistic Firm

25

R

Nov.

13

Competitive Equilibrium,  Substitution

26, 27

T

Nov.

18

Time Value, Dynamic Optimization

28, 32

R

Nov.

20

Dynamic Optimization Ð non-renewable resources

32

T

Nov.

25

TBA Ð depending on interest

TBA

R

Nov.

27

Fall Recess

T

Dec.

2

TBA Ð depending on interest

TBA

R

Dec.

4

CHAOS Ð Final Project due

 

T

Dec.

9

Student presentations

 

R

Dec.

11
Student presentations

 

Lab Syllabus    
Lab Dates  Topic      Reading       
Lab 1.                         9/10 -  9/11  Introduction Ð simple flow model   Chapter 1, 2
Lab 2.   9/17 - 9/18   

Population Modeling      

Ch. 2, 4 
Lab 3.   9/24 - 10/25

Flow of Toxic Materials                                    

 Ch. 4
Lab 4.   10/1 - 10/2 Randomness - Feedback                                         Ch. 6, 7
Lab 5. 10/8 Ð 10/9   Discrete flows in space and time                              Ch. 35.
  10/15 - 10/16 

No Labs Ð Exam week

 
Lab 6. 10/22 - 10/23 Alleles   Ch. 11,12       
Lab 7.   10/29 - 10/30   Predator Prey - Fisheries    Ch. 18     
Lab 8.   11/5 - 11/6 Epidemics Ð modeling Ebola    Ch. 19  
Lab 9.   11/12 - 11/13    The Firm Ð Carbon Taxes     Ch. 24, 25
Lab 10. 11/19 - 11/20  

Non-Renewable Resources

       Ch. 32         
    11/26 and 11/27 Fall Recess - no labs.  
Lab 11. 12/3 Ð 12/4    Development of an Interactive Computer Game          Everything youÕve learned!

Lab and Modeling Assignments

In each lab session you will be given a specific task, which is due the day after the actual lab session Ð in essence anytime before midnight.  The product you hand in is the model you created, as well as some text within a dialog-box. The text should consist of:

  1. Statement of problem Ð research questions
  2. Assumptions Ð this one is very important as we cannot assess the accuracy of your models unless you explain to us your rationale.
  3. Answers questions in #1. 

In addition, include your name and id# in the dialog-box.

Before the first lab session you must get a user-folder on a server called CASFS1.  Please go to cashelp.bu.edu and proceed to do so Ð immediately. This is very important since you need to be able to save your files Ð and save often!

On the CASFS1 server under ÒclassesÓ you will find a folder called EE/GG 550. Open it and there you will find three subfolders Ð a class admin folder, drop-box and shared folder. The one called class admin folder you do not have access to.   You have full read and copy privileges from the shared folder and there I will return to you graded labs and homeworks. After individual labs and homeworks have been graded you can download your graded labs/HW from this folder to your user-folder.  Please only download your own labs. You hand in your labs via the Òdrop boxÓ folder on the CASFS1 server Ð but not later than the due-date/time.  You only have drop- privileges to this folder and thus be careful what you put in there Ð you cannot remove what you already dropped in! I advise you to stay during the lab session and complete your models there.  By doing so you will be able to get help from your lab instructor. 

When dropping your lab assignment into the drop-box on the server make sure to name your lab assignment with your name and the number of the lab. Example:

Davidsdottir-L1.STM

Homework assignments should be handed in in-class (on a high-density diskette) or via email or into the drop box on the CASFS1 server Ð make sure that you name your homework assignments as follows:

Davidsdottir-H1.STM