Instructor:

Brynhildur Davidsdottir

Office: STO 141; Office Hours: M,T,W: 11-12 AM.

Email:  bdavids@bu.edu, tel. 617-353-7553.

Teaching

Fellow:

Gang Gong

Office: CAS 338 (but is in computer lab during office hours)

Office hours: T 2-3pm and W 5-6 PM.

Email ggong@bu.edu, tel. 617-358-0204.

Meeting Time:

Lecture: Tuesdays, Thursdays 3:30 – 5:00 PM

Labs:  B1 on Tuesdays, 12 - 2 pm

          B2 on Mondays, 12 - 2 pm

Classroom

Locations:

Lecture:  CAS 228

Labs:     CAS 330

Readings for

Lecture and Labs

Reading packet: available at STO 141

Cost $40

Course Objectives:

This course introduces the art of quantitative modeling of environmental and social systems with hands-on design and construction of working models using computerized spreadsheets (Excel) and a brief introduction to a powerful Dynamic Modeling Software called STELLA. Applications will be drawn from a range of environmental and social issues such as population growth, pollution transport, climate change and waste management. In the first few weeks students are introduced to basic modeling tools and concepts. Then the class will focus on a wide range of different issues where we will derive the scientific basis and objective for each model, followed by a practical discussion of how to implement it in a spreadsheet program (Excel). 

After taking this class you should be proficient in asking research questions, creating hypothesis, collecting and arranging data and designing models to test your hypothesis and answer the questions asked. You will be able to test the accuracy of your models, perform scenario analysis and present and interpret results.

Grading:

Grades are based on a research project, occasional homework and labs as follows:

Models and Reports:            30%                           Due 1 week after each lab session.

Homework Assignments:     20%                           TBA

Project and Presentation:      40%                           Final report and model due on Tue Dec. 2.

Class and Lab Participation: 10%

Lab Models and Lab Reports: You will receive lab assignments each week, which include a model you need to implement into Excel and a set of questions you need to use the model to answer. A week after the assignment is given out a lab report is due (see lab syllabus for more details).

Homework Assignments: Mostly you will be asked to use Excel to answer a set of questions that are given out in class. Includes one group effort collecting data.

Project and Presentation: For the term project you are expected to develop a research question and build a model or use an existing one to answer your question. The project should progress using the following steps:  First, you write a literature review of how others have approached the question you asked – should be approximately 2 pages. Second, collect data and then either implement an existing model or build your own model to address the question. Third, calibrate and run the model to verify its accuracy, if applicable. Fourth, compare results with published data and prepare a short (approx. 10 pages) report, which includes the literature review, a description of model operation, results and conclusions. Project proposals (1 page max) that state your research question and briefly describe the proposed project are due on Thursday October 16.  Then on Tuesday October 21 you will present your approved proposal to the class. You should have the literature review complete by the first week of November and the final project reports are due by Tuesday December 2. Students are expected to present their models during the last week of the semester.

Late lab reports homework  or projects

If you hand in late your lab reports, your homework or your project reports your grade will decline linearly 10% per day – thus if it is 10 days late – you will receive a grade of 0. It you were ill a doctor’s note is required.

Incomplete Grades:

"I" grades are given only when specific work has not been completed AND when the student and instructor have conferred and the instructor has assigned a date within the next 12 months for the work to be completed. The I grade automatically becomes a permanent F if the work is not completed with 12 months from when the incomplete was given.  This is CAS policy.

Academic Honesty

Plagiarism and other forms of academic misconduct are serious offenses.  I take them very seriously and I expect my students to do likewise. You should read the CAS Academic Conduct Code for further information about specific definitions, procedures, sanctions, etc.  Copies of the Code are available in CAS 105.  I am required to refer cases of suspected academic misconduct to the CAS Dean’s Office.

DATE

TOPIC

READING

R

Sept.

4

Introduction to the course.

-

T

Sept.

9

Introduction to models and systems – classifications of models, use and characteristics.

Hall and Day (1977) ch. 1 begin ch 2.

R

Sept.

11

Systems models – components – specific features => lags, feedback, threshold - complexity and growth.  Units

Hall and Day (1977) ch. 2

Handout

T

Sept.

16

The Art of Modeling – 4 Phases – building a paper model and translating it to a spreadsheet.

Hardisty. Ch 2, 3,4.

R

Sept.

18

The Art of Modeling (cont’.) – 4 Phases – building a paper model and translating it to a spreadsheet. Incorporating space and time.

Hardisty Ch. 5.

Hadlock 1998, Chapter 1 and 2

T

Sept.

23

Physical principles of groundwater flow.

Presenting results in tabular and graphical format. Design Principles

Hadlock 1998, Chapter 2

Hardisty chapter 6

R

Sept.

25

Calibration, Validation, Sensitivity Analysis.

Hardisity ch. 10
Handout

T

Sept.

30

Sensitivity Analysis - Scenarios

IPAT equation

Hardisity ch. 10

Herendeen (1998) ch 2

R

Oct.

2

Estimating Your Ecological Footprint

Wackernagel et al (1996)

T

Oct.

7

Windspeed / Temperature models  - Stochastic vs. Deterministic Models, Static vs. Dynamic Models – Feedback.

Hardisity, ch 7 and 8

R

Oct.

9

Intro to STELLA

Handout

T

Oct.

14

No Class – Monday Schedule of Classes

R

Oct.

16

Modeling biogeochemical cycles

Modeling the Carbon Cycle

Holmen (1992) ch. 11

Handout

T

Oct.

21

Student Proposal Presentations - Discussion

R

Oct.

23

Looking for Data – Human appropriation of freshwater resources, Human appropriation of net primary productivity

Postel et al 1996, Vitousek et al. 1986

T

Oct.

28

Growth Models
Introduction to Growth Models - linear, exponential, derivatives.

Herendeen (1998) Ch. 3

Gotelli 1995 Ch.2

R

Oct.

30

Modeling Human Population Growth

Hollmann et al. 2000

T

Nov.

4

Growth models – logistic
Population dynamics – (predator/prey)

Gotelli 1995 Ch3
Gotelli 1995 p.112–116, 140 – 147. Swart (1990)

R

Nov.

6

Use of growth models in resource management - Fisheries - Sustainable Yield Model

Hartwick et al. 1994 ch.8

Harte 1988

Herendeen (1998) Ch. 9

T

Nov.

11

TBA

TBA

R

Nov.

13

Air Quality Modeling

Hadlock Chapter 3

T

Nov.

18

Pollution transport - Acid Deposition - RAINS model

Alcamo et al. 1987

Hordijk 1988

R

Nov.

20

Waste Management Modeling

Cartwright (1993) ch. 10

T

Nov.

25

TBA - Guest Speaker

TBA

R

Nov.

27

Fall Recess - no class

Handout

T

Dec.

2

Soil Erosion  - Universal Soil Loss Model

Ontario Ministry of Agriculture.

R

Dec.

4

Student Project Presentations

T

Dec.

9 -

Student Project Presentations

R

Dec.

11

Student Project Presentations