Robert Kaufmann


My research focuses on three areas: world oil markets, global climate change, and ecological economics. In each area, my research seeks to integrate theory and techniques developed in the social and natural sciences. This research leads to a better understanding of issues at hand and the ability to development effective policy.

World oil markets represent a complex mix of economic, geology, and politics. These areas have an especially large influence on non-OPEC oil production and the determination of world oil prices. My research indicates that non-OPEC production depends on prices and the long run cost of producing oil, which falls and rises over the production cycle. This insight can help explain why U.S. oil production increased when prices fell between 1950 and 1973, and why oil production declined between 1973 and 1985 when real oil prices doubled. A related research effort quantifies the factors that influence world oil prices, which include standard economic forces such as stocks and operable capacity, but also includes political factors such as OPEC behavior.

My interest in climate change focuses on whether global climate is actually changing, and if so how changes in climate will affect human well-being. Recently, I have been able to attribute changes in global temperature to human activity using statistical techniques. In addition, my work on world

 

oil markets has allowed me to contribute to the global policy debate concerning the rate at which economic activity will emit carbon dioxide and the cost of reducing emissions. I also examine the impacts of climate change on U.S. agriculture by integrating biological and economic models of crop yield.

Ecological economics seeks to understand the way in which natural environments contribute to human well-being and limits on such support. To focus on these issues, I develop theoretical models that quantify the short- and long-term effects of environmental degradation in the short and long run. In addition, I quantify the empirical relation between economic activity and the use of environmental goods and services. Examples include understanding the forces that drive changes in legislation aimed at reducing SO2 concentrations, determining the rate at which agricultural land is being lost in China, and estimating how these losses will effect China's ability to feed itself or its need to import large quantities of food in the future.